IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/inf/wpaper/2021.04.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

50 years of capital mobility in the Eurozone: breaking the Feldstein-Horioka Puzzle

Author

Listed:
  • Mariam Camarero

    (University Jaume I, University of Valencia, University of Valencia)

  • Alejandro Munoz
  • Cecilio Tamarit

Abstract

This paper assesses capital mobility for the Eurozone countries by studying the long-run relationship between domestic investment and savings for the period 1970-2019. Our main goal is to analyze the impact of economic events on capital mobility during this period. We apply the cointegration methodology in a setting that allows us to identify endogenous breaks in the long-run saving-investment relationship. Specifically, the breaks coincide with relevant economic events. We find a downward trend in the saving-investment retention since the 70s for the so-called “core countries†, whereas this trend is not so clear in the peripheral, where the financial and sovereign crises have had a more substantial impact. Our analysis captures other economic events: the Exchange Rate Mechanism (ERM) crisis, the German reunification, the European financial assistance program, and the post-crisis period. Our results also indicate that the original euro design had some caveats that remain unsolved.

Suggested Citation

  • Mariam Camarero & Alejandro Munoz & Cecilio Tamarit, 2021. "50 years of capital mobility in the Eurozone: breaking the Feldstein-Horioka Puzzle," Working Papers 2021.04, International Network for Economic Research - INFER.
  • Handle: RePEc:inf:wpaper:2021.04
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://infer-research.eu/wp-content/uploads/2021/05/WP2021.04.pdf
    File Function: First version, 2021
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Coakley, Jerry & Kulasi, Farida, 1997. "Cointegration of long span saving and investment," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 54(1), pages 1-6, January.
    2. Carrion-i-Silvestre, Josep Lluís & Kim, Dukpa & Perron, Pierre, 2009. "Gls-Based Unit Root Tests With Multiple Structural Breaks Under Both The Null And The Alternative Hypotheses," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 25(6), pages 1754-1792, December.
    3. Kejriwal, Mohitosh & Perron, Pierre, 2010. "Testing for Multiple Structural Changes in Cointegrated Regression Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 28(4), pages 503-522.
    4. Jan Lemmen & Sylvester Eijffinger, 1995. "The quantity approach to financial integration: The Feldstein-Horioka criterion revisited," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 6(2), pages 145-165, April.
    5. Davide Furceri & Aleksandra Zdzienicka, 2015. "The Euro Area Crisis: Need for a Supranational Fiscal Risk Sharing Mechanism?," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 26(4), pages 683-710, September.
    6. Lewis, Karen K, 1996. "What Can Explain the Apparent Lack of International Consumption Risk Sharing?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 104(2), pages 267-297, April.
    7. Joakim Westerlund, 2006. "Testing for Panel Cointegration with Multiple Structural Breaks," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 68(1), pages 101-132, February.
    8. Anastassios A. Drakos & Georgios P. Kouretas & Prodromos Vlamis, 2018. "Saving, investment and capital mobility in EU member countries: a panel data analysis of the Feldstein–Horioka puzzle," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 50(34-35), pages 3798-3811, July.
    9. Pierfederico Asdrubali & Bent E. Sørensen & Oved Yosha, 1996. "Channels of Interstate Risk Sharing: United States 1963–1990," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 111(4), pages 1081-1110.
    10. Jansen, W Jos & Schulze, Gunther G, 1996. "Theory-Based Measurement of the Saving-Investment Correlation with an Application to Norway," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 34(1), pages 116-132, January.
    11. Mariam Camarero & Juan Sapena & Cecilio Tamarit, 2020. "Modelling Time-Varying Parameters in Panel Data State-Space Frameworks: An Application to the Feldstein–Horioka Puzzle," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 56(1), pages 87-114, June.
    12. Nicholas Ford & Charles Yuji Horioka, 2017. "The ‘real’ explanation of the Feldstein–Horioka puzzle," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(2), pages 95-97, January.
    13. Corbin, Annie, 2001. "Country specific effect in the Feldstein-Horioka paradox: a panel data analysis," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 72(3), pages 297-302, September.
    14. Zivot, Eric & Andrews, Donald W K, 2002. "Further Evidence on the Great Crash, the Oil-Price Shock, and the Unit-Root Hypothesis," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 25-44, January.
    15. Lemmen, J.J.G. & Eijffinger, S.C.W., 1992. "The degree of financial integration in the European Community," Research Memorandum FEW 540, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    16. Coiteux, Martin & Olivier, Simon, 2000. "The saving retention coefficient in the long run and in the short run: evidence from panel data," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 535-548, August.
    17. Shibata, Akihisa & Shintani, Mototsugu, 1998. "Capital mobility in the world economy: an alternative test," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(5), pages 741-756, October.
    18. Harberger, Arnold C, 1980. "Vignettes on the World Capital Market," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 70(2), pages 331-337, May.
    19. But, Boris & Morley, Bruce, 2017. "The Feldstein-Horioka puzzle and capital mobility: The role of the recent financial crisis," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 41(1), pages 139-150.
    20. Jansen, W. Jos, 1997. "Can the intertemporal budget constraint explain the Feldstein-Horioka puzzle?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 56(1), pages 77-83, September.
    21. Murphy, Robert G., 1984. "Capital mobility and the relationship between saving and investment rates in OECD countries," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 3(3), pages 327-342, December.
    22. Miller, Stephen M., 1988. "Are saving and investment co-integrated?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 31-34.
    23. Tsung Wu Ho, 2000. "Regime-switching investment-saving correlation and international capital mobility," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 7(9), pages 619-622.
    24. Feldstein, Martin & Horioka, Charles, 1980. "Domestic Saving and International Capital Flows," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 90(358), pages 314-329, June.
    25. Stock, James H & Watson, Mark W, 1993. "A Simple Estimator of Cointegrating Vectors in Higher Order Integrated Systems," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(4), pages 783-820, July.
    26. Anastasios Mastroyiannis, 2007. "Current Account Dynamics and the Feldstein and Horioka Puzzle: the Case of Greece," European Journal of Comparative Economics, Cattaneo University (LIUC), vol. 4(1), pages 91-99, June.
    27. Elliott, Graham & Rothenberg, Thomas J & Stock, James H, 1996. "Efficient Tests for an Autoregressive Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(4), pages 813-836, July.
    28. Yoichi Arai & Eiji Kurozumi, 2007. "Testing for the Null Hypothesis of Cointegration with a Structural Break," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 26(6), pages 705-739.
    29. Sinn, Stefan, 1992. "Saving-Investment Correlations and Capital Mobility: On the Evidence from Annual Data," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 102(414), pages 1162-1170, September.
    30. Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan & Bent E. Sørensen & Oved Yosha, 2003. "Risk Sharing and Industrial Specialization: Regional and International Evidence," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(3), pages 903-918, June.
    31. G. M. Grossman & K. Rogoff (ed.), 1995. "Handbook of International Economics," Handbook of International Economics, Elsevier, edition 1, volume 3, number 3.
    32. Perron, Pierre & Yabu, Tomoyoshi, 2009. "Testing for Shifts in Trend With an Integrated or Stationary Noise Component," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 27(3), pages 369-396.
    33. Lieven Baele & Annalisa Ferrando & Peter Hördahl & Elizaveta Krylova & Cyril Monnet, 2004. "Measuring financial integration in the euro area," Occasional Paper Series 14, European Central Bank.
    34. Jerry Coakley & Ana‐Maria Fuertes & Fabio Spagnolo, 2004. "Is the Feldstein–Horioka Puzzle History?," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 72(5), pages 569-590, September.
    35. Lori Leachman, 1991. "Saving, investment, and capital mobility among OECD countries," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 2(2), pages 137-163, June.
    36. Gulley, O. David, 1992. "Are saving and investment cointegrated? : Another look at the data," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 55-58, May.
    37. Jansen, W. Jos, 2000. "International capital mobility: evidence from panel data," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 507-511, August.
    38. Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth Rogoff, 2001. "The Six Major Puzzles in International Macroeconomics: Is There a Common Cause?," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2000, Volume 15, pages 339-412, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    39. Tesar, Linda L., 1991. "Savings, investment and international capital flows," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(1-2), pages 55-78, August.
    40. Martin Feldstein, 1991. "Domestic Saving and International Capital Movements in the Long Run and the Short Run," NBER Chapters, in: International Volatility and Economic Growth: The First Ten Years of The International Seminar on Macroeconomics, pages 331-353, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    41. Serena Ng & Pierre Perron, 2001. "LAG Length Selection and the Construction of Unit Root Tests with Good Size and Power," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 69(6), pages 1519-1554, November.
    42. Coakley, Jerry & Kulasi, Farida & Smith, Ron, 1996. "Current Account Solvency and the Feldstein-Horioka Puzzle," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 106(436), pages 620-627, May.
    43. Baele, Lieven & Ferrando, Annalisa & Hördahl, Peter & Krylova, Elizaveta & Monnet, Cyril, 2004. "Measuring financial integration in the euro area," Occasional Paper Series 14, European Central Bank.
    44. Baxter, Marianne & Crucini, Mario J, 1993. "Explaining Saving-Investment Correlations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(3), pages 416-436, June.
    45. Perron, Pierre, 1997. "Further evidence on breaking trend functions in macroeconomic variables," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 80(2), pages 355-385, October.
    46. Gregory, Allan W. & Hansen, Bruce E., 1996. "Residual-based tests for cointegration in models with regime shifts," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 70(1), pages 99-126, January.
    47. Yao, Yi-Ching, 1988. "Estimating the number of change-points via Schwarz' criterion," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 6(3), pages 181-189, February.
    48. Paresh Kumar Narayan, 2005. "The saving and investment nexus for China: evidence from cointegration tests," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(17), pages 1979-1990.
    49. Krol, Robert, 1996. "International capital mobility: evidence from panel data," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(3), pages 467-474, June.
    50. Coakley, Jerry & Kulasi, Farida & Smith, Ron, 1998. "The Feldstein-Horioka Puzzle and Capital Mobility: A Review," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 3(2), pages 169-188, April.
    51. Apergis, Nicholas & Tsoumas, Chris, 2009. "A survey of the Feldstein-Horioka puzzle: What has been done and where we stand," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(2), pages 64-76, June.
    52. Saikkonen, Pentti, 1991. "Asymptotically Efficient Estimation of Cointegration Regressions," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 7(1), pages 1-21, March.
    53. Ozmen, Erdal & Parmaksiz, Kagan, 2003. "Policy regime change and the Feldstein-Horioka puzzle: the UK evidence," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 25(2), pages 137-149, February.
    54. Jushan Bai & Pierre Perron, 2003. "Computation and analysis of multiple structural change models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 18(1), pages 1-22.
    55. Kim, Sunghyun Henry, 2001. "The saving-investment correlation puzzle is still a puzzle," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(7), pages 1017-1034, December.
    56. Phillips, Peter C B & Ouliaris, S, 1990. "Asymptotic Properties of Residual Based Tests for Cointegration," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 58(1), pages 165-193, January.
    57. Horioka, Charles Yuji & Terada-Hagiwara, Akiko & Nomoto, Takaaki, 2015. "Explaining Foreign Holdings of Asia's Debt Securities: The Feldstein-Horioka Paradox Revisited," AGI Working Paper Series 2015-16, Asian Growth Research Institute.
    58. Harvey, David I. & Leybourne, Stephen J. & Taylor, A.M. Robert, 2013. "Testing for unit roots in the possible presence of multiple trend breaks using minimum Dickey–Fuller statistics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 177(2), pages 265-284.
    59. Kasuga, Hidefumi, 2004. "Saving-investment correlations in developing countries," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 83(3), pages 371-376, June.
    60. Telatar, Erdinc & Telatar, Funda & Bolatoglu, Nasip, 2007. "A regime switching approach to the Feldstein-Horioka puzzle: Evidence from some European countries," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 523-533.
    61. Sinha, Dipendra, 2002. "Saving-investment relationships for Japan and other Asian countries," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 1-23, January.
    62. Westerlund, Joakim, 2006. "Testing for panel cointegration with a level break," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 91(1), pages 27-33, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Mariam Camarero & Juan Sapena & Cecilio Tamarit, 2018. "FH Puzzle in the Eurozone: A time-varying analysis Preliminary Draft," Working Papers 1813, Department of Applied Economics II, Universidad de Valencia.
    2. Apergis, Nicholas & Tsoumas, Chris, 2009. "A survey of the Feldstein-Horioka puzzle: What has been done and where we stand," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(2), pages 64-76, June.
    3. Dilem Yıldırım & Ethem Erdem Orman, 2016. "The Feldstein-Horioka Puzzle in the Presence of Structural Breaks: Evidence from China," ERC Working Papers 1601, ERC - Economic Research Center, Middle East Technical University, revised Jan 2016.
    4. Phiri, Andrew, 2019. "The Feldstein-Horioka Puzzle and the Global Financial Crisis: Evidence from South Africa using Asymmetric Cointegration Analysis," Economia Internazionale / International Economics, Camera di Commercio Industria Artigianato Agricoltura di Genova, vol. 72(2), pages 139-170.
    5. Ma, Wei & Li, Haiqi, 2016. "Time-varying saving–investment relationship and the Feldstein–Horioka puzzle," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 166-178.
    6. Phiri, Andrew, 2017. "The Feldstein-Horioka puzzle and the global recession period: Evidence from South Africa using asymmetric cointegration analysis," MPRA Paper 79096, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Kumar, Saten, 2015. "Regional integration, capital mobility and financial intermediation revisited: Application of general to specific method in panel data," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 1-17.
    8. Chen, Shyh-Wei & Shen, Chung-Hua, 2015. "Revisiting the Feldstein–Horioka puzzle with regime switching: New evidence from European countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 260-269.
    9. Ketenci, Natalya, 2012. "The Feldstein–Horioka Puzzle and structural breaks: Evidence from EU members," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 262-270.
    10. Jerry Coakley & Ana-Maria Fuertes & Fabio Spagnolo, 2004. "The Feldstein-Horioka puzzle is not as bad as you think," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2003 17, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
    11. Jerry Coakley & Ana‐Maria Fuertes & Fabio Spagnolo, 2004. "Is the Feldstein–Horioka Puzzle History?," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 72(5), pages 569-590, September.
    12. Herwartz, H. & Xu, F., 2010. "A functional coefficient model view of the Feldstein-Horioka puzzle," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 37-54, February.
    13. Vasudeva N.R. Murthy & Natalya Ketenci, 2021. "The Feldstein–Horioka hypothesis for African countries: Evidence from recent panel error‐correction modelling," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(4), pages 5762-5774, October.
    14. Abu N.M. Wahid & Mohammad Salahuddin & Abdullah M. Noman, 2010. "Savings and investment in South Asia: Evidence from likelihood ratio based panel cointegration," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 37(6), pages 658-666, November.
    15. Ekrem ERDEM & Ahmet KOSEOGLU & Ali Gokhan YUCEL, 2016. "Testing the validity of the Feldstein-Horioka Puzzle: New evidence from structural breaks for Turkey," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania - AGER, vol. 0(2(607), S), pages 17-26, Summer.
    16. Singh, Tarlok, 2008. "Testing the Saving-Investment correlations in India: An evidence from single-equation and system estimators," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 25(5), pages 1064-1079, September.
    17. Chakrabarti, Avik, 2006. "The saving-investment relationship revisited: New evidence from multivariate heterogeneous panel cointegration analyses," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 402-419, June.
    18. Kollias, Christos & Mylonidis, Nikolaos & Paleologou, Suzanna-Maria, 2008. "The Feldstein-Horioka puzzle across EU members: Evidence from the ARDL bounds approach and panel data," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 380-387.
    19. Naib ALAKBAROV & Yılmaz BAYAR, 2021. "International Financial Market Integration and The Feldstein–Horioka Puzzle: Evidence from Emerging Market Economies," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(1), pages 143-165, December.
    20. Chu, Kam Hon, 2012. "The Feldstein-Horioka Puzzle and Spurious Ratio Correlation," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 292-309.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Capital mobility; Feldstein-Horioka puzzle; Multiple Structural Breaks; Cointegration; unit roots;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F - International Economics

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:inf:wpaper:2021.04. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: . General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/inferea.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Pedro Cerqueira The email address of this maintainer does not seem to be valid anymore. Please ask Pedro Cerqueira to update the entry or send us the correct address (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/inferea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.