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Mobilidade do Capital e Sustentabilidade Externa: uma aplicação da tese de F-H a Portugal (1910-2004)

  • João Sousa Andrade

    ()

    (GEMF and Faculdade de Economia, Universidade de Coimbra)

Pretende-se estudar a mobilidade internacional do capital e a problemática associada da sustentabilidade externa, do ponto de vista da tese de Feldstein-Horioka (F-H), e aplicar esta tese à economia portuguesa. Partindo do princípio das vantagens da mobilidade internacional do capital, apresentamos numa primeira parte o contributo da tese de F-H. O seu contexto teórico assim como as críticas e extensões que gerou são aqui descritos. Iremos valorizar a dificuldade de interpretação dos resultados da equação utilizada pelos autores. Chamaremos a atenção para o facto de podermos melhorar a interpretação empírica dos resultados através da análise de estabilidade do modelo original e do uso de um modelo VAR. A leitura em termos de sustentabilidade externa constitui uma das extensões resultante da aplicação de métodos econométricos a séries não estacionárias. Na segunda parte procuramos estudar o comportamento da economia portuguesa de 1910 a 2004. Do ponto de vista do Investimento, da Poupança e da Balança Corrente vemos que haverá necessidade de distinguir um comportamento de longo e de curto prazo. O modelo tradicional de F-H aponta claramente para a forte mobilidade do capital nesta economia. O estudo da estabilidade do modelo aponta para a ausência de restrição da Poupança sobre o Investimento. O modelo VAR que desenvolvemos também aponta para a fraca influência da Poupança sobre o Investimento, confirmando o resultado anterior. A análise de co-integração leva a aceitar a não sustentabilidade externa da economia. Ao mesmo tempo, o valor do coeficiente de retenção, no longo prazo, não contradiz os resultados anteriores sobre a forte mobilidade de capital. A tese de F-H, com as extensões apresentadas, revela-se um utensílio importante no estudo da mobilidade e da sustentabilidade externa. A evolução do Investimento, da Poupança, da BC e do crescimento da economia, assim como o resultado da insustentabilidade externa, leva-nos a considerar que é urgente o aumento da Poupança na economia portuguesa.

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Paper provided by GEMF - Faculdade de Economia, Universidade de Coimbra in its series GEMF Working Papers with number 2006-04.

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Length: 65 pages
Date of creation: 2006
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Handle: RePEc:gmf:wpaper:2006-04
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