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Investment-Saving Comovement under Endogenous Fiscal Policy

  • Daniel Levy

    (Bar-Ilan University)

I expand Feldstein’s (1983) model by including flexible exchange rate and by introducing endogenous fiscal policy. Using this model, I demonstrate how a positive investment-saving correlation can arise in a world with endogenous fiscal policy. I show that this correlation does not depend on capital mobility and therefore is compatible with any degree of capital mobility. This implies that the observed investment- saving comovement is not necessarily due to imperfect capital mobility. The model has a testable implication: it predicts a lack of Granger causality from private saving to private investment. Empirical examination of this prediction indicates that U.S. time series data is compatible with the hypothesis of endogenous fiscal policy during a flexible exchange rate period, but not during a fixed exchange rate period.

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Paper provided by EconWPA in its series International Finance with number 0505008.

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Date of creation: 15 May 2005
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Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpif:0505008
Note: Type of Document - pdf
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  1. Tesar, L.L., 1988. "Savings, Investment And International Capital Flows," Papers 64, Brookings Institution - Working Papers.
  2. Gerard Caprio & David H. Howard, 1983. "Domestic saving, current accounts, and international capital mobility," International Finance Discussion Papers 244, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  3. Martin Feldstein, 1991. "Domestic Saving and International Capital Movements in the Long Run and the Short Run," NBER Chapters, in: International Volatility and Economic Growth: The First Ten Years of The International Seminar on Macroeconomics, pages 331-353 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Engle, R. F. & Granger, C. W. J. (ed.), 1991. "Long-Run Economic Relationships: Readings in Cointegration," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198283393, March.
  5. Gulley, O. David, 1992. "Are saving and investment cointegrated? : Another look at the data," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 55-58, May.
  6. Lori Leachman, 1991. "Saving, investment, and capital mobility among OECD countries," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 2(2), pages 137-163, June.
  7. Feldstein, Martin & Horioka, Charles, 1980. "Domestic Saving and International Capital Flows," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 90(358), pages 314-29, June.
  8. Lawrence H. Summers, 1986. "Tax Policy and International Competitiveness," NBER Working Papers 2007, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Obstfeld, Maurice, 1986. "Capital mobility in the world economy: Theory and measurement," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 24(1), pages 55-103, January.
  10. Evans, Paul, 1987. "Interest Rates and Expected Future Budget Deficits in the United States," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 95(1), pages 34-58, February.
  11. Levy, D., 1990. "Investment-Saving Comovement, Capital Mobility, And Fiscal Policy," Papers 90-91-04, California Irvine - School of Social Sciences.
  12. Baxter, M. & Crucini, M.J., 1990. "Explaining Saving/Investment Correlation," RCER Working Papers 224, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
  13. Glenn Otto & Tony S. Wirjanto, 1989. "National Savings and Domestic Investment in the Long Run: Some Time Series Evidence for the U.S. and Canada," Working Papers 754, Queen's University, Department of Economics.
  14. Podivinsky, Jan M., 1998. "Testing misspecified cointegrating relationships," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 60(1), pages 1-9, July.
  15. Miller, Stephen M., 1988. "Are saving and investment co-integrated?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 31-34.
  16. Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
  17. Engle, Robert F & Granger, Clive W J, 1987. "Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 251-76, March.
  18. Tobin, James, 1983. "'Domestic saving and international capital movements in the long run and the short run' by M. Feldstein," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 21(1-2), pages 153-156.
  19. repec:fth:harver:1463 is not listed on IDEAS
  20. Murphy, Robert G., 1984. "Capital mobility and the relationship between saving and investment rates in OECD countries," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 3(3), pages 327-342, December.
  21. Ramon Moreno, 1988. "Saving, investment, and the U.S. external balance," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Fall, pages 3-17.
  22. David Y. Wong, 1988. "What do saving - investment relationships tell us about capital mobility?," Working Papers 88-10, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
  23. Tamim Bayoumi, 1990. "Saving-Investment Correlations: Immobile Capital, Government Policy, or Endogenous Behavior?," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 37(2), pages 360-387, June.
  24. Martin Feldstein & Philippe Bacchetta, 1989. "National Saving and International Investment," NBER Working Papers 3164, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  25. Argimon, Isabel & Roldan, JoseMaria, 1994. "Saving, investment and international capital mobility in EC countries," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 59-67, January.
  26. Daniel Levy, 2003. "Is the Feldstein-Horioka Puzzle Really a Puzzle?," Working Papers 2003-02, Bar-Ilan University, Department of Economics.
  27. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
  28. Thomas J. Sargent & Neil Wallace, 1981. "Some unpleasant monetarist arithmetic," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Fall.
  29. repec:cup:cbooks:9780521454384 is not listed on IDEAS
  30. Nouriel Roubini, 1988. "Current Account and Budget Deficits in an Intertemporal Model of Consumption and Taxation Smoothing. A Solution to the "Feldstein-Horioka Puzzle"?," NBER Working Papers 2773, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  31. Michael Dooley & Jeffrey Frankel & Donald J. Mathieson, 1987. "International Capital Mobility: What Do Saving-Investment Correlations Tell Us?," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 34(3), pages 503-530, September.
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