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Current Account And Budget Deficits In An Intertemporal Model Of Consumption And Taxation Smoothing. A Solution To The "Feldstein-Horioka" Puzzel

  • ROUBINI, N.

This paper presents an infinite horizon model of consumption and taxation " smoothing" that implies a simple relation between current accounts, budget deficits, investment rates and transitory output shocks. It is argued that such a model could explain the "Feldstein-Horioka puzzle" of the apparent lack of international capital mobility. Traditional regressions of the savings rate on the investment rate, as performed in the literature, are shown to be incorrect tests of the hypothesis of capital mobility because they do not control for the independent role of budget deficits and temporary output shocks in the current account and savings equations. Empirical tests of the model for a sample of 18 OECD countries present good evidence that international capital markets are widely integrated and that the "Feldstein-Horioka puzzle" might be explained by the important role of fiscal deficits in the determination of the current account and the saving behavior.

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Paper provided by Yale - Economic Growth Center in its series Papers with number 569.

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Length: 50 pages
Date of creation: 1989
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:fth:yalegr:569
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U.S.A.; YALE UNIVERSITY, ECONOMIC GROWTH CENTER, YALE STATION NEW-HAVEN CONNECTICUT 06520 U.S.A

Phone: (203) 432-3610
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Web page: http://www.econ.yale.edu/~egcenter/

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  1. Torsten Persson & Lars E.O. Svensson, 1983. "Current Account Dynamics and the Terms of Trade: Harberger-Laursen-Metzler Two Generations Later," NBER Working Papers 1129, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Martin Feldstein, 1982. "Domestic Saving and International Capital Movements in the Long Run and the Short Run," NBER Working Papers 0947, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Maurice Obstfeld, 1985. "Capital Mobility in the World Economy: Theory and Measurement," NBER Working Papers 1692, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Aschauer, David Alan, 1988. "The Equilibrium Approach to Fiscal Policy," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 20(1), pages 41-62, February.
  5. Lucas, Robert Jr., 1982. "Interest rates and currency prices in a two-country world," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(3), pages 335-359.
  6. Martin Feldstein & Charles Horioka, 1979. "Domestic Savings and International Capital Flows," NBER Working Papers 0310, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Anderson, James E. & Young, Leslie, 1992. "Optimal taxation and debt in an open economy," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(1), pages 27-57, February.
  8. Frenkel, Jacob A & Razin, Assaf, 1986. "Fiscal Policies in the World Economy," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 94(3), pages 564-94, June.
  9. Svensson, Lars E O & Razin, Assaf, 1983. "The Terms of Trade and the Current Account: The Harberger-Laursen-Metzler Effect," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(1), pages 97-125, February.
  10. Maurice Obstfeld, 1986. "How Integrated are World Capital Markets? Some New Tests," NBER Working Papers 2075, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  11. Willem H. Buiter, 1979. "Time Preference and International Lending and Borrowing in an Overlapping-Generations Model," NBER Working Papers 0352, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  12. Lawrence H. Summers, 1986. "Tax Policy and International Competitiveness," NBER Working Papers 2007, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  13. Razin, Assaf & Svensson, Lars E. O., 1983. "The current account and the optimal government debt," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 2(2), pages 215-224, August.
  14. Stockman, Alan C. & Svensson, Lars E. O., 1987. "Capital flows, investment, and exchange rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 171-201, March.
  15. Bruno, Michael, 1976. "The Two-Sector Open Economy and the Real Exchange Rate," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 66(4), pages 566-77, September.
  16. John Y. Campbell & N. Gregory Mankiw, 1987. "Are Output Fluctuations Transitory?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 102(4), pages 857-880.
  17. Barro, Robert J, 1979. "On the Determination of the Public Debt," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 87(5), pages 940-71, October.
  18. Nouriel Roubini & Jeffrey Sachs, 1988. "Political and Economic Determinants of Budget Deficits in the IndustrialDemocracies," NBER Working Papers 2682, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  19. Nelson, Charles R. & Plosser, Charles I., 1982. "Trends and random walks in macroeconmic time series : Some evidence and implications," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(2), pages 139-162.
  20. Cochrane, John H, 1988. "How Big Is the Random Walk in GNP?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 96(5), pages 893-920, October.
  21. Gerard Caprio & David H. Howard, 1983. "Domestic saving, current accounts, and international capital mobility," International Finance Discussion Papers 244, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  22. Tobin, James, 1983. "'Domestic saving and international capital movements in the long run and the short run' by M. Feldstein," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 21(1-2), pages 153-156.
  23. Ahmed, Shaghil, 1986. "Temporary and permanent government spending in an open economy: Some evidence for the United Kingdom," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 197-224, March.
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