IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/red/issued/v3y2000i1p100-136.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Investment-Saving Comovement and Capital Mobility: Evidence from Century Long U.S. Time Series

Author

Listed:
  • Daniel Levy

    (Emory University)

Abstract

This paper makes three contributions: First, I construct annual time series of gross domestic investment and national saving in the U.S. for the 1897-1949 period using historical component series. I compare the qualitative and quantitative properties of the newly constructed series with the properties of four existing alternative series constructed by the Bureau of Economic Analysis, Commerce Department, Kuznets, and Kendrick. Second, I combine the newly constructed data with the Bureau of Economic Analysis' 1929-89 period data, and the resulting time series are used to re-examine and document the long-run bivariate relationship between the time series of investment and saving. Third, I also examine the short-run as well as the cyclical relationships between the time series of investment and saving. The results reported in this paper indicate that there is a strong long-run and cyclical relationship between investment and saving, and this relationship seems to be independent of the time period considered. Furthermore, I find that during the postwar period the investment-saving comovement is strong and significant also in the short run. However, this is not true during the prewar period. Quantitatively, I find that the investment-saving relationship is stronger during the postwar period than the prewar period. Feldstein and his coauthors have argued that the high investment-saving correlation reflects imperfect capital mobility. This view, however, is hard to reconcile with the finding that the correlation increased during a period in which it is largely believed that capital markets have become more open and integrated. I conclude, therefore, that long-term capital mobility tests based on investment-saving correlation analysis are not likely to provide an accurate measure of capital mobility (Copyright: Elsevier)

Suggested Citation

  • Daniel Levy, 2000. "Investment-Saving Comovement and Capital Mobility: Evidence from Century Long U.S. Time Series," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 3(1), pages 100-137, January.
  • Handle: RePEc:red:issued:v:3:y:2000:i:1:p:100-136 DOI: 10.1006/redy.1999.0060
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1006/redy.1999.0060
    File Function: Full text
    Download Restriction: Access to full texts is restricted to ScienceDirect subscribers and ScienceDirect institutional members. See http://www.sciencedirect.com/ for details.

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Francis X. Diebold & Lee E. Ohanian & Jeremy Berkowitz, 1998. "Dynamic Equilibrium Economies: A Framework for Comparing Models and Data," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 65(3), pages 433-451.
    2. S. Rosen, Harvey, 1987. "Studies in state and local public finance," Business Horizons, Elsevier, pages 84-85.
    3. Levy, Daniel & Chen, Haiwei, 1994. "Estimates of the Aggregate Quarterly Capital Stock for the Post-war U.S. Economy," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, pages 317-349.
    4. Daniel Levy, 1995. "Investment-saving comovement under endogenous fiscal policy," Open Economies Review, Springer, pages 237-254.
    5. Engel, Charles & Kletzer, Kenneth, 1989. "Saving and Investment in an Open Economy with Non-traded Goods," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 30(4), pages 735-752, November.
    6. Tobin, James, 1983. "'Domestic saving and international capital movements in the long run and the short run' by M. Feldstein," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 21(1-2), pages 153-156.
    7. Romer, Christina D., 1994. "Remeasuring Business Cycles," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 54(03), pages 573-609, September.
    8. Lucas, Robert E, Jr, 1980. "Two Illustrations of the Quantity Theory of Money," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, pages 1005-1014.
    9. Jeffrey A. Frankel, 1985. "International capital mobility and crowding-out in the U.S. economy: imperfect integration of financial markets or of goods markets?," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, pages 33-74.
    10. Murphy, Robert G., 1984. "Capital mobility and the relationship between saving and investment rates in OECD countries," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 3(3), pages 327-342, December.
    11. Feldstein, Martin & Horioka, Charles, 1980. "Domestic Saving and International Capital Flows," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 90(358), pages 314-329, June.
    12. Andrew Harvey (ed.), 1994. "Time Series," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, volume 0, number 599, September.
    13. Dezhbakhsh, Hashem & Levy, Daniel, 1994. "Periodic properties of interpolated time series," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 44(3), pages 221-228.
    14. Sinn, Stefan, 1992. "Saving-Investment Correlations and Capital Mobility: On the Evidence from Annual Data," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 102(414), pages 1162-1170, September.
    15. Martin Feldstein & Philippe Bacchetta, 1991. "National Saving and International Investment," NBER Chapters,in: National Saving and Economic Performance, pages 201-226 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    16. Daniel Levy, 2003. "Is the Feldstein-Horioka Puzzle Really a Puzzle?," Working Papers 2003-02, Bar-Ilan University, Department of Economics.
    17. Clive W. J. Granger & Jeffrey J. Hallman, 1988. "The algebra of I (1)," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 45, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    18. Robert Dekle, 1995. "Saving-investment associations and capital mobility on the evidence from Japanese regional data," International Finance Discussion Papers 496, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    19. Trehan, Bharat & Walsh, Carl E., 1988. "Common trends, the government's budget constraint, and revenue smoothing," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 425-444.
    20. Lawrence H. Summers, 1982. "The Nonadjustment of Nominal Interest Rates: A Study of the Fisher Effect," NBER Working Papers 0836, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    21. Michael Dooley & Jeffrey Frankel & Donald J. Mathieson, 1987. "International Capital Mobility: What Do Saving-Investment Correlations Tell Us?," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 34(3), pages 503-530, September.
    22. repec:fth:harver:1463 is not listed on IDEAS
    23. Andrews, Donald W K & Monahan, J Christopher, 1992. "An Improved Heteroskedasticity and Autocorrelation Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimator," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 60(4), pages 953-966, July.
    24. Moreno, Ramon, 1997. "Saving-investment dynamics and capital mobility in the US and Japan," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(6), pages 837-863, December.
    25. Michael M. Hutchison & Nirvikar Singh, 1993. "Long-term international capital mobility: new evidence from equilibrium real interest rate linkages," Pacific Basin Working Paper Series 93-06, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    26. Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Publishing House "SINERGIA PRESS", vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
    27. Martin Feldstein, 1991. "Domestic Saving and International Capital Movements in the Long Run and the Short Run," NBER Chapters,in: International Volatility and Economic Growth: The First Ten Years of The International Seminar on Macroeconomics, pages 331-353 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    28. Balke, Nathan S & Gordon, Robert J, 1989. "The Estimation of Prewar Gross National Product: Methodology and New Evidence," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 97(1), pages 38-92, February.
    29. Backus, David K & Kehoe, Patrick J & Kydland, Finn E, 1992. "International Real Business Cycles," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, pages 745-775.
    30. Coakley, Jerry & Kulasi, Farida & Smith, Ron, 1996. "Current Account Solvency and the Feldstein-Horioka Puzzle," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 106(436), pages 620-627, May.
    31. Baxter, Marianne & Crucini, Mario J, 1993. "Explaining Saving-Investment Correlations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, pages 416-436.
    32. Obstfeld, Maurice, 1986. "Capital mobility in the world economy: Theory and measurement," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, pages 55-103.
    33. Phillips, P. C. B. & Ouliaris, S., 1988. "Testing for cointegration using principal components methods," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 205-230.
    34. John Hassler & Petter Lundvik & Torsten Persson & Paul Soderlind, 1992. "The Swedish business cycle: stylized facts over 130 years," Discussion Paper / Institute for Empirical Macroeconomics 63, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    35. Popper, Helen, 1993. "Long-term covered interest parity: evidence from currency swaps," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 12(4), pages 439-448, August.
    36. Finn E. Kydland & Edward C. Prescott, 1990. "Business cycles: real facts and a monetary myth," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, pages 3-18.
    37. Daniel Levy, 1995. "Investment-saving comovement under endogenous fiscal policy," Open Economies Review, Springer, pages 237-254.
    38. Baxter, Marianne & Crucini, Mario J, 1993. "Explaining Saving-Investment Correlations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, pages 416-436.
    39. Dekle, Robert, 1996. "Saving-investment associations and capital mobility On the evidence from Japanese regional data," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, pages 53-72.
    40. James G. MacKinnon, 1990. "Critical Values for Cointegration Tests," Working Papers 1227, Queen's University, Department of Economics.
    41. Jos Jansen, W, 1996. "Estimating saving-investment correlations: evidence for OECD countries based on an error correction model," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(5), pages 749-781, October.
    42. Simon Kuznets & Lillian Epstein & Elizabeth Jenks, 1946. "National Product Since 1869," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number kuzn46-1.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Daniel Levy, 2002. "Cointegration in Frequency Domain," Emory Economics 0209, Department of Economics, Emory University (Atlanta).
    2. Chen, Baoline & Zadrozny, Peter A., 2009. "Estimated U.S. manufacturing production capital and technology based on an estimated dynamic structural economic model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, pages 1398-1418.
    3. Young, Andrew T. & Higgins, Matthew J. & Levy, Daniel, 2013. "Heterogeneous convergence," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 120(2), pages 238-241.
    4. Snir, Avichai & Levy, Daniel, 2010. "Economic Growth in the Potterian Economy," EconStor Open Access Articles, ZBW - German National Library of Economics, pages 211-236.
    5. Erdal Ozmen & Kağan Parmaksiz, 2003. "Exchange rate regimes and the Feldstein-Horioka puzzle: the French evidence," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(2), pages 217-222.
    6. Daniel Levy & Hashem Dezhbakhsh, 2003. "On the typical spectral shape of an economic variable," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, pages 417-423.
    7. Ko, Jun-Hyung & Funashima, Yoshito, 2016. "On the Sources of the Feldstein-Horioka Puzzle across Time and Frequencies," MPRA Paper 75297, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Joakim Westerlund, 2006. "Testing for Panel Cointegration with Multiple Structural Breaks," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, pages 101-132.
    9. International Monetary Fund, 2005. "Latin American Central Bank Reform; Progress and Challenges," IMF Working Papers 05/114, International Monetary Fund.
    10. Matthew Higgins & Daniel Levy & Andrew T. Young, 2003. "Growth and Convergence across the US: Evidence from County-Level Data," Working Papers 2003-03, Bar-Ilan University, Department of Economics.
    11. Hautsch, Nikolaus & Hess, Dieter, 2007. "Bayesian Learning in Financial Markets: Testing for the Relevance of Information Precision in Price Discovery," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, pages 189-208.
    12. Hoffmann, Mathias, 2004. "International capital mobility in the long run and the short run: can we still learn from saving-investment data?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 113-131, February.
    13. Óscar Penagos Gómez & Héctor Rojas Serrano & Jacobo Campo Robledo, 2013. "La paradoja Feldstein – Horioka: Evidencia para Colombia (1925 – 2011)," DOCUMENTOS DE TRABAJO UCATOLICA 012393, UNIVERSIDAD CATOLICA DE COLOMBIA.
    14. Daniel Levy, 2003. "Is the Feldstein-Horioka Puzzle Really a Puzzle?," Working Papers 2003-02, Bar-Ilan University, Department of Economics.
    15. Levy, Daniel & Dezhbakhsh, Hashem, 2003. "International evidence on output fluctuation and shock persistence," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(7), pages 1499-1530, October.
    16. Mathias Hoffmann, 2004. "Saving, investment and the net foreign asset position," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2003 45, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
    17. Phiri, Andrew, 2017. "The Feldstein-Horioka puzzle and the global recession period: Evidence from South Africa using asymmetric cointegration analysis," MPRA Paper 79096, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    18. Singh, Tarlok, 2008. "Testing the Saving-Investment correlations in India: An evidence from single-equation and system estimators," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 25(5), pages 1064-1079, September.
    19. Yannick BINEAU, "undated". "A Empirical Assessment of the Feldstein and Horioka Literature," EcoMod2010 259600030, EcoMod.
    20. SELLAMI, Ahmed & CHIKHI, Mohamed, 2014. "اختبار العلاقة السببية والتكامل المشترك بين الادخار والاستثمار في الاقتصاد الجزائري خلال الفترة (1970ـ2011)
      [Causality and cointegration Testing between Savings and Investment in the Algerian Econo
      ," MPRA Paper 76692, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2014.
    21. Óscar Penagos Gómez & Héctor Rojas Serrano & Jacobo Campo Robledo, 2015. "La Paradoja de Feldstein-Horioka – Evidencia para Colombia durante 1925-2011," REVISTA ECOS DE ECONOMÍA, UNIVERSIDAD EAFIT, vol. 19(40), pages 4-24, June.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F21 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Investment; Long-Term Capital Movements
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • E22 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Investment; Capital; Intangible Capital; Capacity

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:red:issued:v:3:y:2000:i:1:p:100-136. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Christian Zimmermann). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/sedddea.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.