Domestic Saving and International Capital Movements in the Long Run and the Short Run
In: International Volatility and Economic Growth: The First Ten Years of The International Seminar on Macroeconomics
The evidence and analysis in this paper support the earlier findings of Feldstein and Horioka (1980) that sustained increases in domestic savings rates induce approximately equal increases in domestic rates of investment. New estimates for the post-OPEC period 1974-79 imply that each extra dollar of domestic saving increases domestic investment by approximately 85 cents in a sample of 17 OECD countries. An explicit analysis of the problems of identification and simultaneous equations bias suggests that the regression estimates are more relevant as a guide to the long-run response of international capital flows than to their short-run behavior. Coefficient estimates based on annual variations in savings and investment are subject to potentially severe simultaneous equations bias that is not present when annual observations are averaged over a decade or more and the regression is estimated with a cross-country sample of these averages. A portfolio model of international capital allocation that is presented in the paper indicates that the short-run change in the rate of net foreign investment in response to a sustained increase in domestic saving is likely to be substantially greater than the ultimate steady state response.
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- William H. Branson, 1970. "Monetary Policy and the New View of International Capital Movements," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 1(2), pages 235-270.
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- Obstfeld, Maurice, 1980. "Imperfect asset substitutability and monetary policy under fixed exchange rates," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(2), pages 177-200, May.
- Maurice Obstfeld, 1980. "Imperfect Asset Substitutability and Monetary Policy under Fixed Exchange Rates," NBER Working Papers 0485, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- David G. Hartman, 1980. "International Effects on the U.S. Capital Market," NBER Working Papers 0581, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)
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