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Determinants and Long-term Projections of Saving Rates in Developing Asia

Author

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  • Horioka, Charles Yuji

    (Osaka University)

  • Terada-Hagiwara, Akiko

    (Asian Development Bank)

Abstract

In this paper, the authors analyze the determinants of the domestic saving rate in developing Asia during 1966–2007 and find that the main determinants appear to be the aged dependency ratio, income levels, and level of financial development. They project future trends in domestic saving rates in developing Asia for 2011–2030 based on their estimation results, and find that the aging of the population will be the main determinant of future trends in domestic saving rates in developing Asia. However, there will not necessarily be a sharp decline in saving rates in developing Asia as a whole, at least during the next 2 decades, inasmuch as there will be substantial variations across countries in the speed and timing of population aging.

Suggested Citation

  • Horioka, Charles Yuji & Terada-Hagiwara, Akiko, 2010. "Determinants and Long-term Projections of Saving Rates in Developing Asia," ADB Economics Working Paper Series 228, Asian Development Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:ris:adbewp:0228
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    aged dependency ratio; domestic saving rate; financial development; income levels; population aging;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • G20 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - General
    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts

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