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Quantifying International Capital Mobility in the 1980s

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  • Frankel, Jeffrey A.

Abstract

The Feldstein-Horioka finding, that national saving and investment have been highly correlated in the past, has not been primarily due to econometric problems such as endogenous fiscal policy; it has held up equally well when instrumental variables are used. But the inflow of capital to the United States has been so large in recent years that an updating of the sample period to 1987 produces a coefficient on national saving that is lower than in past studies. This decline in the degree of crowding out of investment can be attributed to the increased degree of financial market integration in the 1980s. Capital controls and other bathers to the movement of capital across national borders remained for such countries as the United Kingdom and Japan as recently as 1979, and France and Italy as recently as 1986. But a new data set of forward exchange rates for 25 countries shows that a continuing worldwide trend of integration of financial markets in the 1980s had all but eliminated short-term interest differentials for major industrialized countries by 1988. It is only the country premium that has been eliminated however, this means that only covered interest differentials are small. Nominal and real exchange rate variability remain, and indeed were larger in the 1980s than in the 1970s. The result is that a currency premium remains, consisting of an exchange risk premium plus expected real currency depreciation. The popular null hypothesis that expected real depreciation is constant at zero is tested, and rejected, with a 119-year sample. (Post-1973 data sets do not allow enough observations to provide a useful test of this null hypothesis.) The existence of expected real depreciation means that, even if interest rates are equalized internationally when expressed in a common currency, large differentials in j interest rates remain. Investors have no incentive to arbitrage away such differentials. Because there is no force tying the domestic real interest rate to the wor
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Suggested Citation

  • Frankel, Jeffrey A., 1989. "Quantifying International Capital Mobility in the 1980s," Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt4fw7c7bh, Department of Economics, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley.
  • Handle: RePEc:cdl:econwp:qt4fw7c7bh
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    Cited by:

    1. Sebastian Edwards, 2000. "Capital Flows, Real Exchange Rates, and Capital Controls: Some Latin American Experiences," NBER Chapters, in: Capital Flows and the Emerging Economies: Theory, Evidence, and Controversies, pages 197-246, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Adrian Blundell-Wignall & Frank Browne, 1992. "Real Exchange Rates and the Globalisation of Financial Markets," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp9203, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    3. Martin Grandes, 2002. "Can Dollarisation Cope with External and Fiscal Vulnerability?," Journal of Emerging Market Finance, Institute for Financial Management and Research, vol. 1(1), pages 47-73, May.
    4. Cochran, Steven J. & DeFina, Robert H., 1996. "Predictability in real exchange rates: Evidence from parametric hazard models," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 125-147.
    5. Sinn, Stefan, 1991. "Measuring international capital mobility: A critical assessment of the use of saving and investment correlations," Kiel Working Papers 458, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    6. Siebert, Horst & Koop, Michael J., 1990. "Institutional competition: a concept for Europe?," Kiel Working Papers 440, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
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    8. Jacques Janvier Okoué EDOU, 2020. "Saving, investment and international capital mobility," Journal of Academic Finance, RED research unit, university of Gabes, Tunisia, vol. 11(1), pages 56-69, June.
    9. Mark J. Holmes & Jesús Otero, 2015. "A Pairwise-Based Approach to Examine the Feldstein-Horioka Condition of International Capital Mobility," Working Papers in Economics 15/01, University of Waikato.
    10. Diebold, Francis X & Husted, Steven & Rush, Mark, 1991. "Real Exchange Rates under the Gold Standard," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 99(6), pages 1252-1271, December.
    11. Otto, Glenn & Wirjanto, Tony, 1989. "National Savings and Domestic Investment in the Long Run: Some Time Series Evidence for the U.S. and Canada," Queen's Institute for Economic Research Discussion Papers 275218, Queen's University - Department of Economics.
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    13. Douglas, Justin J. & Bartley, Scott W., 1997. "Risk premia in Australian interest rates," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 41(2), pages 1-35.
    14. Cochran, Steven J. & DeFina, Robert H., 1995. "Predictable components in exchange rates," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 1-14.
    15. Shafik, Nemat & Jalali, Jalaleddin, 1991. "Are high real interest rates bad for world economic growth?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 669, The World Bank.
    16. Han‐Min Hsing, 2008. "International Capital Mobility in the Short Run and the Long Run: A Daily Data Study for Japan, Singapore and Taiwan," Asian Economic Journal, East Asian Economic Association, vol. 22(1), pages 67-82, March.
    17. Devasmita Jena & Alokesh Barua, "undated". "Does Trade, Structural Transformation and Income Convergence: Empirical Evidence from the EU and the ASEAN," Centre for International Trade and Development, Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi Discussion Papers 18-04, Centre for International Trade and Development, Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi, India.
    18. Mark J. Holmes & Jesús Otero, 2016. "A pairwise-based approach to examining the Feldstein–Horioka condition of international capital mobility," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 50(2), pages 279-297, March.
    19. Kateřina Šímová, 2020. "Verification of Feldstein-Horioka Puzzle (Example of European Union Countries) [Verifikace Feldsteinovy–Horiokovy hádanky (příklad zemí Evropské unie)]," Český finanční a účetní časopis, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2020(2).
    20. Kateřina Šímová, 2020. "Verification of Feldstein-Horioka Puzzle (Example of European Union Countries) [Verifikace Feldsteinovy-Horiokovy hádanky (příklad zemí Evropské unie)]," Český finanční a účetní časopis, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2020(2), pages 43-60.
    21. John K. Hill, 1990. "Demographics and the foreign indebtedness of the United States," Working Papers 9002, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    22. Cardenas, Mauricio & Escobar, Andres, 1998. "Saving determinants in Colombia: 1925-1994," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(1), pages 5-44, October.
    23. Sung Hee Jwa, 1994. "Capital Mobility in Korea since the Early 1980s: Comparison with Japan and Taiwan," NBER Chapters, in: Macroeconomic Linkage: Savings, Exchange Rates, and Capital Flows, pages 123-166, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    24. Yannick BINEAU, 2010. "A Empirical Assessment of the Feldstein and Horioka Literature," EcoMod2010 259600030, EcoMod.
    25. Fausten, Dietrich K., 1990. "The mobility of international capital: Valuation changes and stock adjustment," Discussion Papers, Series II 122, University of Konstanz, Collaborative Research Centre (SFB) 178 "Internationalization of the Economy".

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