IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/cdl/econwp/qt4fw7c7bh.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Quantifying International Capital Mobility in the 1980s

Author

Listed:
  • Frankel, Jeffrey A.

Abstract

The Feldstein-Horioka finding, that national saving and investment have been highly correlated in the past, has not been primarily due to econometric problems such as endogenous fiscal policy; it has held up equally well when instrumental variables are used. But the inflow of capital to the United States has been so large in recent years that an updating of the sample period to 1987 produces a coefficient on national saving that is lower than in past studies. This decline in the degree of crowding out of investment can be attributed to the increased degree of financial market integration in the 1980s. Capital controls and other bathers to the movement of capital across national borders remained for such countries as the United Kingdom and Japan as recently as 1979, and France and Italy as recently as 1986. But a new data set of forward exchange rates for 25 countries shows that a continuing worldwide trend of integration of financial markets in the 1980s had all but eliminated short-term interest differentials for major industrialized countries by 1988. It is only the country premium that has been eliminated however, this means that only covered interest differentials are small. Nominal and real exchange rate variability remain, and indeed were larger in the 1980s than in the 1970s. The result is that a currency premium remains, consisting of an exchange risk premium plus expected real currency depreciation. The popular null hypothesis that expected real depreciation is constant at zero is tested, and rejected, with a 119-year sample. (Post-1973 data sets do not allow enough observations to provide a useful test of this null hypothesis.) The existence of expected real depreciation means that, even if interest rates are equalized internationally when expressed in a common currency, large differentials in j interest rates remain. Investors have no incentive to arbitrage away such differentials. Because there is no force tying the domestic real interest rate to the wor
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)

Suggested Citation

  • Frankel, Jeffrey A., 1989. "Quantifying International Capital Mobility in the 1980s," Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt4fw7c7bh, Department of Economics, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley.
    • Handle: RePEc:cdl:econwp:qt4fw7c7bh
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.escholarship.org/uc/item/4fw7c7bh.pdf;origin=repeccitec
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Martin Feldstein, 1991. "Domestic Saving and International Capital Movements in the Long Run and the Short Run," NBER Chapters, in: International Volatility and Economic Growth: The First Ten Years of The International Seminar on Macroeconomics, pages 331-353, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Frankel, Jeffrey A & Froot, Kenneth A, 1987. "Using Survey Data to Test Standard Propositions Regarding Exchange Rate Expectations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 77(1), pages 133-153, March.
    3. Dooley, Michael P & Isard, Peter, 1980. "Capital Controls, Political Risk, and Deviations from Interest-Rate Parity," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 88(2), pages 370-384, April.
    4. John F. O. Bilson & Richard C. Marston, 1984. "Exchange Rate Theory and Practice," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number bils84-1, October.
    5. Cumby, Robert E. & Mishkin, Frederic S., 1986. "The international linkage of real interest rates: The European-US connection," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 5(1), pages 5-23, March.
    6. Harberger, Arnold C, 1980. "Vignettes on the World Capital Market," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 70(2), pages 331-337, May.
    7. Mishkin, Frederic S, 1984. "Are Real Interest Rates Equal across Countries? An Empirical Investigation of International Parity Conditions," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 39(5), pages 1345-1357, December.
    8. Frankel, Jeffrey A. & MacArthur, Alan T., 1988. "Political vs. currency premia in international real interest differentials : A study of forward rates for 24 countries," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 32(5), pages 1083-1114, June.
    9. Michael Dooley & Jeffrey Frankel & Donald J. Mathieson, 1987. "International Capital Mobility: What Do Saving-Investment Correlations Tell Us?," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 34(3), pages 503-530, September.
    10. Frenkel, Jacob A & Levich, Richard M, 1977. "Transaction Costs and Interest Arbitrage: Tranquil versus Turbulent Periods," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 85(6), pages 1209-1226, December.
    11. Unknown, 1986. "Letters," Choices: The Magazine of Food, Farm, and Resource Issues, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 1(4), pages 1-9.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. de Brouwer,Gordon, 1999. "Financial Integration in East Asia," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521651486, December.
    2. Jansen, W Jos & Schulze, Gunther G, 1996. "Theory-Based Measurement of the Saving-Investment Correlation with an Application to Norway," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 34(1), pages 116-132, January.
    3. Jeffrey A. Frankel, 1985. "International capital mobility and crowding-out in the U.S. economy: imperfect integration of financial markets or of goods markets?," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, pages 33-74.
    4. Dzhumashev Ratbek & Cooray Arusha, 2017. "The Feldstein-Horioka hypothesis revisited," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 17(1), pages 1-30, January.
    5. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Chinn, Menzie D. & Fujii, Eiji, 2003. "China, Hong Kong, and Taiwan: A quantitative assessment of real and financial integration," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 281-303.
    6. Rudiger Dornbusch & Jeffrey Frankel, 1988. "The Flexible Exchange Rate System: Experience and Alternatives," International Economic Association Series, in: Silvio Borner (ed.), International Finance and Trade in a Polycentric World, chapter 7, pages 151-208, Palgrave Macmillan.
    7. Jan Lemmen & Sylvester Eijffinger, 1995. "The quantity approach to financial integration: The Feldstein-Horioka criterion revisited," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 6(2), pages 145-165, April.
    8. Gordon, Roger H & Bovenberg, A Lans, 1996. "Why Is Capital So Immobile Internationally? Possible Explanations and Implications for Capital Income Taxation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 86(5), pages 1057-1075, December.
    9. Fausten, Dietrich K., 1990. "The mobility of international capital: Valuation changes and stock adjustment," Discussion Papers, Series II 122, University of Konstanz, Collaborative Research Centre (SFB) 178 "Internationalization of the Economy".
    10. Chan, Tze-Haw, 2008. "International Parities among China and Her Major Trading Partners in Asia Pacific," MPRA Paper 15504, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 06 Apr 2009.
    11. Ross Levine, 1988. "The forward exchange rate bias: a new explanation," International Finance Discussion Papers 338, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    12. Morris Goldstein & Michael Mussa, 1993. "The integration of world capital markets," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 245-330.
    13. Chan, Tze-Haw, 2002. "Dynamic financial linkages among the Asia Pacific economies: an empirical assessment of real interest parity condition," MPRA Paper 34642, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Darby, Michael R., 1986. "The internationalization of American banking and finance: Structure, risk, and world interest rates," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 5(4), pages 403-428, December.
    15. Chan, Tze-Haw, 2012. "Assessing the international parity conditions and transmission mechanism for Malaysia-China," MPRA Paper 38930, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    16. Richard C. Marston, 1992. "Determinants of Shrt-Term Real Interest Differentials Between Japan and the United States," NBER Working Papers 4167, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    17. Lori Leachman, 1991. "Saving, investment, and capital mobility among OECD countries," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 2(2), pages 137-163, June.
    18. Jane Marrinan & Eva Ventura, 1995. "Efectos del gasto publico sobre el ahorro y la inversión en una economía abierta," Investigaciones Economicas, Fundación SEPI, vol. 19(3), pages 349-370, September.
    19. Yannick BINEAU, 2010. "A Empirical Assessment of the Feldstein and Horioka Literature," EcoMod2010 259600030, EcoMod.
    20. Chan, Tze-Haw & Baharumshah, Ahmad Zubaidi, 2012. "Financial Integration between China and Asia Pacific Trading Partners: Parities Evidence from the First- and Second-generation Panel Tests," MPRA Paper 37801, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cdl:econwp:qt4fw7c7bh. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Lisa Schiff (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/ibbrkus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.