IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ces/ceswps/_851.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

China, Hong Kong, and Taiwan: A Quantitative Assessment of Real and Financial Integration

Author

Listed:
  • Yin-Wong Cheung
  • Menzie D. Chinn
  • Eiji Fujii

Abstract

The status of real and financial integration of China, Hong Kong, and Taiwan is investigated using monthly data on one-month interbank rates, exchange rates, and prices. Specifically, the degree of integration is assessed based on the empirical validity of real interest parity, uncovered interest parity, and relative purchasing power parity. There is evidence these parity conditions tend to hold over longer periods, although they do not hold instantaneously. Overall, the magnitude of deviations from the parity conditions is shrinking over time. In particular, China and Hong Kong appear to have experienced significant increases in integration during the sample period. It is also found that exchange rate variability plays a major role in determining the variability of deviations from these parity conditions.

Suggested Citation

  • Yin-Wong Cheung & Menzie D. Chinn & Eiji Fujii, 2003. "China, Hong Kong, and Taiwan: A Quantitative Assessment of Real and Financial Integration," CESifo Working Paper Series 851, CESifo.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_851
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.ifo.de/DocDL/cesifo_wp851.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Glick, Reuven & Hutchison, Michael, 1990. "Financial liberalization in the Pacific Basin: Implications for real interest rate linkages," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 4(1), pages 36-48, March.
    2. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Lai, Kon S., 1998. "Economic growth and stationarity of real exchange rates: Evidence from some fast-growing Asian countries," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 6(1-2), pages 61-76, May.
    3. Cheung, Ying-Wong & He, Jia & Ng, Lilian, 1995. "Pacific-Basin stock markets and real activity," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 3(1), pages 143-143, May.
    4. Menzie D. Chinn & Jeffrey A. Frankel, 1992. "Financial links around the Pacific Rim, 1982-1992," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, pages 17-47.
    5. Chinn, Menzie D & Frankel, Jeffrey A, 1995. "Who drives real interest rates around the Pacific Rim: the USA or Japan?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14(6), pages 801-821, December.
    6. Aliber, Robert Z, 1973. "The Interest Rate Parity Theorem: A Reinterpretation," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(6), pages 1451-1459, Nov.-Dec..
    7. Dooley, Michael P & Isard, Peter, 1980. "Capital Controls, Political Risk, and Deviations from Interest-Rate Parity," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 88(2), pages 370-384, April.
    8. Holmes, Mark J., 2002. "Does long-run real interest parity hold among EU countries? Some new panel data evidence," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(4), pages 733-746.
    9. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Lai, Kon S, 1995. "Lag Order and Critical Values of a Modified Dickey-Fuller Test," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 57(3), pages 411-419, August.
    10. Mark, Nelson C., 1985. "Some evidence on the international inequality of real interest rates," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 4(2), pages 189-208, June.
    11. Glick,Reuven & Hutchison,Michael (ed.), 1994. "Exchange Rate Policy and Interdependence," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521461108, Enero-Abr.
    12. John F. O. Bilson & Richard C. Marston, 1984. "Exchange Rate Theory and Practice," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number bils84-1, October.
    13. Cumby, Robert E. & Mishkin, Frederic S., 1986. "The international linkage of real interest rates: The European-US connection," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 5(1), pages 5-23, March.
    14. Shu-ki Tsang, 2002. "Optimum Currency Area for Mainland HCina and Hong Kong? Empirical Tests," Working Papers 162002, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
    15. Robert E. Cumby & Maurice Obstfeld, 1984. "International Interest Rate and Price Level Linkages under Flexible Exchange Rates: A Review of Recent Evidence," NBER Chapters, in: Exchange Rate Theory and Practice, pages 121-152, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    16. Michael Kumhof, 2001. "International Capital Mobility in Emerging Markets: New Evidence from Daily Data," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 9(4), pages 626-640, November.
    17. Wang, Zhi, 2003. "The impact of China's WTO accession on patterns of world trade," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 1-41, January.
    18. Chang, Chun & Fleisher, Belton M. & Parker, Elliott, 2001. "The impact of China's entry into the WTO: Overview," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 11(4), pages 319-322.
    19. Jeffrey A. Frankel, 1991. "Quantifying International Capital Mobility in the 1980s," NBER Chapters, in: National Saving and Economic Performance, pages 227-270, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    20. Xu, Yingfeng, 2000. "China's exchange rate policy," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 11(3), pages 262-277.
    21. Poncet, Sandra, 2003. "Measuring Chinese domestic and international integration," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 1-21.
    22. repec:bla:reviec:v:9:y:2001:i:4:p:626-40 is not listed on IDEAS
    23. International Monetary Fund, 2002. "People’s Republic of China—Hong Kong Special Administrative Region: Selected Issues," IMF Staff Country Reports 2002/099, International Monetary Fund.
    24. Fujii, Eiji, 2002. "Exchange Rate and Price Adjustments in the Aftermath of the Asian Crisis," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 7(1), pages 1-14, January.
    25. Fukuda, Shin-ichi & Kano, Takashi, 1997. "International Price Linkage within a Region: The Case of East Asia," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 11(4), pages 643-666, December.
    26. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Lai, Kon S, 1995. "Lag Order and Critical Values of the Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 13(3), pages 277-280, July.
    27. Chinn, Menzie D., 2000. "Before the fall: were East Asian currencies overvalued?," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 1(2), pages 101-126, September.
    28. Mishkin, Frederic S, 1984. "Are Real Interest Rates Equal across Countries? An Empirical Investigation of International Parity Conditions," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 39(5), pages 1345-1357, December.
    29. de Brouwer,Gordon, 1999. "Financial Integration in East Asia," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521651486, Enero-Abr.
    30. Elliott, Graham & Rothenberg, Thomas J & Stock, James H, 1996. "Efficient Tests for an Autoregressive Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(4), pages 813-836, July.
    31. WEI, Shang-Jin & Liu, Ligang & Wang, Zhi & Woo, Wing T., 2000. "The China money puzzle: will devaluation of the yuan help or hurt the Hong Kong dollar?," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 11(2), pages 171-188, December.
    32. Fernald, John & Edison, Hali & Loungani, Prakash, 1999. "Was China the first domino? Assessing links between China and other Asian economies," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 515-535, August.
    33. Shoven, John B. & Bernheim, B. Douglas (ed.), 1991. "National Saving and Economic Performance," National Bureau of Economic Research Books, University of Chicago Press, edition 1, number 9780226044040.
    34. Marcus Noland & Li-Gang Liu & Sherman Robinson, 1998. "Global Economic Effects of the Asian Currency Devaluations," Peterson Institute Press: All Books, Peterson Institute for International Economics, number pa56.
    35. B. Douglas Bernheim & John B. Shoven, 1991. "National Saving and Economic Performance," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number bern91-2, October.
    36. Wei, Shang-Jin & Frankel, Jeffrey, 1994. "A "Greater China" trade Bloc?," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 179-190.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Chinn, Menzie D. & Fujii, Eiji, 2006. "The Chinese economies in global context: The integration process and its determinants," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 128-153, March.
    2. Amornthum, Somchai & Bonham, Carl S., 2011. "Financial integration in the pacific basin region: RIP by PANIC attack?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(6), pages 1019-1033, October.
    3. Öge Güney, Pelin & Hasanov, Mübariz, 2014. "Real interest rate parity hypothesis in post-Soviet countries: Evidence from unit root tests," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 120-129.
    4. Chan, Tze-Haw, 2002. "Dynamic financial linkages among the Asia Pacific economies: an empirical assessment of real interest parity condition," MPRA Paper 34642, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Sirichand, Kavita & Vivian, Andrew & Wohar, Mark E., 2015. "Examining real interest parity: Which component reverts quickest and in which regime?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 72-83.
    6. Arghyrou, Michael G. & Gregoriou, Andros & Kontonikas, Alexandros, 2009. "Do real interest rates converge? Evidence from the European union," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 447-460, July.
    7. Mariam Camarero & Josep Lluis Carrion-i-Silvestre & Cecilio Tamarit, 2006. "New evidence of the real interest rate parity for OECD countries using panel unit root tests with breaks," Working Papers CREAP2006-14, Xarxa de Referència en Economia Aplicada (XREAP), revised Dec 2006.
    8. Salah A. Nusair, 2006. "Real Interest Rate Parity: Evidence from Industrialized Countries," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 7(2), pages 425-457, November.
    9. Jansen, W Jos & Schulze, Gunther G, 1996. "Theory-Based Measurement of the Saving-Investment Correlation with an Application to Norway," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 34(1), pages 116-132, January.
    10. Chan, Tze-Haw, 2008. "International Parities among China and Her Major Trading Partners in Asia Pacific," MPRA Paper 15504, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 06 Apr 2009.
    11. Dreger, Christian, 2010. "Does the Nominal Exchange Rate Regime Affect the Real Interest Parity Condition?," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 21(3), pages 274-285.
    12. Chinn, Menzie D & Frankel, Jeffrey A, 1995. "Who drives real interest rates around the Pacific Rim: the USA or Japan?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14(6), pages 801-821, December.
    13. Darby, Michael R., 1986. "The internationalization of American banking and finance: Structure, risk, and world interest rates," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 5(4), pages 403-428, December.
    14. Mohsen Bahmani‐Oskooee & Tsangyao Chang & Zahra (Mila) Elmi & Omid Ranjbar, 2019. "Real Interest Rate Parity And Fourier Quantile Unit Root Test," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 71(3), pages 348-358, July.
    15. de Brouwer,Gordon, 1999. "Financial Integration in East Asia," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521651486, Enero-Abr.
    16. Yin‐Wong Cheung & XingWang Qian, 2010. "Capital Flight: China's Experience," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 14(2), pages 227-247, May.
    17. You, Zhongyuan & Goodwin, Barry K. & Guney, Selin, 2023. "A semi-parametric study on dynamic linkages among international real interest rates," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 215-229.
    18. Sofiane H. Sekioua, 2004. "Real interest parity (RIP) over the 20th century: New evidence based on confidence intervals for the dominant root and half-lives of shocks," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2004 91, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
    19. Mübariz Hasanov & Tolga Omay & Vasif Abioglu, 2024. "Re-examining the real interest rate parity hypothesis under temporary gradual breaks and nonlinear convergence," Portuguese Economic Journal, Springer;Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestao, vol. 23(3), pages 355-382, September.
    20. Keshab Shrestha & Kok Tan, 2005. "Real Interest Rate Parity: Long-Run and Short-Run Analysis Using Wavelets," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 25(2), pages 139-157, September.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    uncovered interest parity; real interest parity; purchasing power parity; exchange rates; capital mobility; market integration;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_851. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Klaus Wohlrabe (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/cesifde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.