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Do real interest rates converge? Evidence from the European union

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  • Arghyrou, Michael G.
  • Gregoriou, Andros
  • Kontonikas, Alexandros

Abstract

We test for real interest rate convergence in the EU25 area. Our contribution is twofold: first, we account for the previously overlooked effects of structural breaks on real interest rate differentials. Second, we test for convergence against the EMU average. For the majority of our sample countries we obtain evidence of convergence towards the latter. This, however, is a gradual process subject to structural breaks, typically falling close to the launch of the euro. Our findings have important implications relating to the single monetary policy and the progress new EU members have achieved towards joining the euro.

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  • Arghyrou, Michael G. & Gregoriou, Andros & Kontonikas, Alexandros, 2009. "Do real interest rates converge? Evidence from the European union," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 447-460, July.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:intfin:v:19:y:2009:i:3:p:447-460
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Real interest rates Convergence Structural breaks EU EMU;

    JEL classification:

    • F21 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Investment; Long-Term Capital Movements
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • C15 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Statistical Simulation Methods: General
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes

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