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Divergent Inflation Rates in EMU

  • Philip R. Lane,
  • Patrick Honohan

We analyze the sources of divergent national inflation rates among EMU member countries. At one level, we review the Irish ‘outlier’ experience; at another, we estimate panel regressions for the 1999-2001 period. We highlight the role played by differential exposure to euro exchange rate movements in explaining inflation divergence. In addition, we find evidence that output gaps and a “price level convergence” effect have also been important. We draw some policy conclusions for the accession countries that are hoping to join EMU.

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Paper provided by IIIS in its series The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series with number iiisdp05.

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Date of creation: 01 Jul 2003
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Handle: RePEc:iis:dispap:iiisdp05
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  1. Ariel Burstein & Martin Eichenbaum & Sergio T. Rebelo, 2002. "Why Are Rates of Inflation So Low After Large Devaluations?," RCER Working Papers 486, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
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  6. Benigno, Pierpaolo, 2001. "Optimal Monetary Policy in a Currency Area," CEPR Discussion Papers 2755, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  7. Leitemo, Kai & Soderstrom, Ulf, 2005. "Simple monetary policy rules and exchange rate uncertainty," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pages 481-507, April.
  8. Mojon, Benoît & Kashyap, Anil K. & Angeloni, Ignazio & Terlizzese, Daniele, 2002. "Monetary Transmission in the Euro Area : Where Do We Stand?," Working Paper Series 0114, European Central Bank.
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  10. Jon Faust & John H. Rogers & Jonathan H. Wright, 2001. "An empirical comparison of Bundesbank and ECB monetary policy rules," International Finance Discussion Papers 705, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  11. Duarte, Margarida & Wolman, Alexander L., 2002. "Regional inflation in a currency union: fiscal policy vs. fundamentals," Working Paper Series 0180, European Central Bank.
  12. Gianluca Benigno & Christoph Thoenissen, 2002. "Equilibrium exchange rates and supply-side performance," Bank of England working papers 156, Bank of England.
  13. Philip R. Lane, 2002. "Monetary-Fiscal Interactions in an Uncertain World: Lessons for European Policymakers," Trinity Economics Papers 200213, Trinity College Dublin, Department of Economics.
  14. Michael Reutter & Hans-Werner Sinn, 2000. "The Minimum Inflation Rate for Euroland," CESifo Working Paper Series 377, CESifo Group Munich.
  15. Charles Engel, 2003. "Expenditure Switching and Exchange-Rate Policy," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2002, Volume 17, pages 231-300 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  16. Stephen G. Cecchetti & Nelson C. Mark & Robert J. Sonora, 2002. "Price Index Convergence Among United States Cities," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 43(4), pages 1081-1099, November.
  17. Mario Crucini & Chris Telmer & Marios Zachariadis, . "Understanding European Real Exchange Rates," GSIA Working Papers 227, Carnegie Mellon University, Tepper School of Business.
  18. Patrick Honohan & Brendan Walsh, 2002. "Catching Up with the Leaders: The Irish Hare," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 33(1), pages 1-78.
  19. Honohan, Patrick, 2000. "Miniblocs and Fringe Currencies of the EMU," Journal of Economic Integration, Center for Economic Integration, Sejong University, vol. 15, pages 47-75.
  20. Taylor, John B., 1993. "Discretion versus policy rules in practice," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 195-214, December.
  21. Philip R. Lane, 2002. "The Cyclical Behaviour of Fiscal Policy: Evidence from the OECD," Trinity Economics Papers 20022, Trinity College Dublin, Department of Economics.
  22. Froot, Kenneth A. & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1995. "Perspectives on PPP and long-run real exchange rates," Handbook of International Economics, in: G. M. Grossman & K. Rogoff (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 32, pages 1647-1688 Elsevier.
  23. Andrew K. Rose, 2000. "One money, one market: the effect of common currencies on trade," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 15(30), pages 7-46, 04.
  24. John FitzGerald & David Duffy & Diarmaid Smyth, 2000. "Managing an Economy Under EMU: The Case of Ireland," Papers WP127, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
  25. Avinash Dixit & Henrik Jensen, 2003. "Common Agency with Rational Expectations: Theory and Application to a Monetary Union," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 113(489), pages 539-549, 07.
  26. Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 1996. "Foundations of International Macroeconomics," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262150476, June.
  27. Canova, Fabio & Pappa, Evi, 2003. "Price Dispersions in Monetary Unions: The Role of Fiscal Shocks," CEPR Discussion Papers 3746, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  28. José Manuel Campa & Linda S. Goldberg, 2005. "Exchange Rate Pass-Through into Import Prices," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 87(4), pages 679-690, November.
  29. Enrique Alberola & José M. Marqués, 1999. "On the Relevance and Nature of Regional Inflation Differentials: the Case of Spain," Banco de Espa�a Working Papers 9913, Banco de Espa�a.
  30. Kpate ADJAOUTÉ & Jean-Pierre DANTHINE, 2003. "European Financial Integration and Equity Returns: A Theory-Based Assessment," FAME Research Paper Series rp84, International Center for Financial Asset Management and Engineering.
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  32. repec:fda:fdaeee:35 is not listed on IDEAS
  33. Lane, P & Honohan, P, 1999. "Pegging To The Dollar And The Euro," Trinity Economics Papers 996, Trinity College Dublin, Department of Economics.
  34. Robert E. Lucas, Jr., 2000. "Inflation and Welfare," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 68(2), pages 247-274, March.
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