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Real exchange rate misalignments in the euro area

Author

Listed:
  • Michael Fidora

    () (European Central Bank)

  • Claire Giordano

    () (Banca d’Italia)

  • Martin Schmitz

    () (European Central Bank)

Abstract

Building upon a behavioural equilibrium exchange rate (BEER) model, estimated at a quarterly frequency since 1999 on a broad sample of 57 countries, this paper assesses whether both the size and persistence of real effective exchange rate misalignments from the levels implied by economic fundamentals have been affected by the adoption of a single currency. A comparison of real misalignments across different country groupings (euro area, non-euro area, advanced and emerging economies), shows they are smaller in the euro area than in its main trading partners. However, in the euro area real disequilibria are also more persistent, although after the global financial crisis the reactivity of real exchange rates to past misalignments increased, and therefore the persistence decreased. In the absence of the nominal adjustment channel, an improvement in the quality of regulation and institutions is found to reduce the persistence of real exchange rate misalignments, plausibly by removing real rigidities.

Suggested Citation

  • Michael Fidora & Claire Giordano & Martin Schmitz, 2018. "Real exchange rate misalignments in the euro area," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1162, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
  • Handle: RePEc:bdi:wptemi:td_1162_18
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    1. Fidora, Michael & Giordano, Claire & Schmitz, Martin, 2017. "Real exchange rate misalignments in the euro area," Working Paper Series 2108, European Central Bank.

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    Keywords

    Real effective exchange rate; equilibrium exchange rate; monetary union; regulation.;

    JEL classification:

    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • E30 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • F00 - International Economics - - General - - - General

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