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Real Exchange Rate and External Balance: How Important Are Price Deflators?

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  • Mr. JaeBin Ahn
  • Rui Mano
  • Jing Zhou

Abstract

This paper contrasts real exchange rate (RER) measures based on different deflators (CPI, GDP deflator, and ULC) and discusses potential implications for the link—or lack thereof—between RER and external balance. We begin by documenting patterns in the evolution of different measures of RERs, and confirm that the choice of deflator plays a significant role in RER movements. A subsequent empirical investigation based on 35 developed and emerging market economies over 1995 to 2014 yields comprehensive and robust evidence that only the RER deflated by ULC exhibits contemporaneous patterns consistent with the expenditure-switching mechanism. We rationalize the empirical findings by introducing a simple model featuring nominal rigidity and trade in intermediate goods as the one in Obstfeld (2001) and Devereux and Engel (2007), which is shown to generate qualitatively identical patterns to empirical findings.

Suggested Citation

  • Mr. JaeBin Ahn & Rui Mano & Jing Zhou, 2017. "Real Exchange Rate and External Balance: How Important Are Price Deflators?," IMF Working Papers 2017/081, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2017/081
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    Cited by:

    1. Dalia Ibrahim Mustafa & Ghazi Ibrahim Al-Assaf, 2022. "The Asymmetric Effects of the Determinants of Real Exchange Rate in Jordan: ‎The Role of Price Index Selection," Review of Applied Socio-Economic Research, Pro Global Science Association, vol. 24(2), pages 121-139, December.
    2. Silvia Fabiani & Alberto Felettigh & Claire Giordano & Roberto Torrini, 2019. "Making room for new competitors. A comparative perspective on Italy’s exports in the euro-area market," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 530, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    3. Michael Fidora & Claire Giordano & Martin Schmitz, 2021. "Real Exchange Rate Misalignments in the Euro Area," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 32(1), pages 71-107, February.
    4. Martin Berka & Daan Steenkamp, 2018. "Deviations in real exchange rate levels in the OECD countries and their structural determinants," Working Papers 4, New Zealand Centre of Macroeconomics.
    5. Claire Giordano, 2021. "How frequent a BEER? Assessing the impact of data frequency on real exchange rate misalignment estimation," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 68(3), pages 365-404, July.
    6. Mr. Alvar Kangur, 2018. "Competitiveness and Wage Bargaining Reform in Italy," IMF Working Papers 2018/061, International Monetary Fund.
    7. Claire Giordano, 2020. "An update of the Bank of Italy methodology underlying the estimation of price-competitiveness misalignments," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 556, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    8. Claire Giordano, 2018. "Price and cost competitiveness misalignments of the euro area and of its main economies according to a quarterly BEER model, 1999-2017," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 444, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    9. Mitali Das, 2023. "Probabilistic assessment of external sustainability in Portugal," Portuguese Economic Journal, Springer;Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestao, vol. 22(1), pages 5-29, January.
    10. Jean-François Carpantier, 2021. "Commodity Prices in Empirical Research," Dynamic Modeling and Econometrics in Economics and Finance, in: Gilles Dufrénot & Takashi Matsuki (ed.), Recent Econometric Techniques for Macroeconomic and Financial Data, pages 199-227, Springer.
    11. Alberto Felettigh & Claire Giordano, 2018. "Rethinking prices and markets underlying price-competitiveness indicators," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 447, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    12. Mirdala, Rajmund & Semančíková, Jozefína & Ruščáková, Anna, 2019. "Determinants of Export and Import Functions in the EU Member Countries," MPRA Paper 99535, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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