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Real exchange rate misalignments in the euro area

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  • Fidora, Michael
  • Giordano, Claire
  • Schmitz, Martin

Abstract

Building upon a Behavioural Equilibrium Exchange Rate (BEER) model, estimated at a quarterly frequency since 1999 on a broad sample of 57 countries, this paper assesses whether both the size and the persistence of real effective exchange rate misalignments from the levels implied by economic fundamentals are affected by the adoption of a single currency. While real misalignments are found to be smaller in the euro area than in its main trading partners, they are also more persistent, although the reactivity of real exchange rates to past misalignments increased, and therefore the persistence decreased, after the global financial crisis. In the absence of the nominal adjustment channel, an improvement in the quality of regulation and institutions is found to reduce the persistence of real exchange rate misalignments, plausibly by removing real rigidities. JEL Classification: E24, E30, F00

Suggested Citation

  • Fidora, Michael & Giordano, Claire & Schmitz, Martin, 2017. "Real exchange rate misalignments in the euro area," Working Paper Series 2108, European Central Bank.
  • Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20172108
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    Cited by:

    1. Fidora, Michael & Giordano, Claire & Schmitz, Martin, 2017. "Real exchange rate misalignments in the euro area," Working Paper Series 2108, European Central Bank.
    2. Galstyan, Vahagn & Herzberg, Valerie, 2018. "External Balance Sheet Risks in Ireland," Financial Stability Notes 09-18, Central Bank of Ireland.

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    Keywords

    equilibrium exchange rate; monetary union; real effective exchange rate; regulation;

    JEL classification:

    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • E30 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • F00 - International Economics - - General - - - General

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