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Mussa Redux and Conditional PPP

  • Paul R. Bergin
  • Reuven Glick
  • Jyh-Lin Wu

Long half-lives of real exchange rates are often used as evidence against monetary sticky price models. In this study we show how exchange rate regimes alter the long-run dynamics and half-life of the real exchange rate, and we recast the classic defense of such models by Mussa (1986) from an argument based on short-run volatility to one based on long-run dynamics. The first key result is that the extremely persistent real exchange rate found commonly in post Bretton Woods data does not apply to the preceding fixed exchange rate period in our sample, where the half-live was perhaps half as large. This result suggests a reinterpretation of Mussa's original finding, indicating that up to two thirds of the rise in variance of the real exchange rate in the recent period is actually due to the rise in persistence of the response to shocks, rather than due to a rise in the variance of shocks themselves. The second key result explains the rise in persistence over time by identifying underlying shocks using a panel VECM model. Shocks to the nominal exchange rate induce more persistent real exchange rate responses compared to price shocks, and these shocks became more prevalent under a flexible exchange rate regime.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 18331.

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Date of creation: Aug 2012
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Publication status: published as Bergin, Paul R. & Glick, Reuven & Wu, Jyh-Lin, 2014. "Mussa redux and conditional PPP," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 101-114.
Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:18331
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  1. Alogoskoufis, George, 1991. "Monetary Accommodation, Exchange Rate Regimes and Inflation Persistence," CEPR Discussion Papers 503, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
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  5. Kim, Hyeongwoo, 2011. "VECM estimations of the PPP reversion rate revisited: the conventional role of relative price adjustment restored," MPRA Paper 33005, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  6. Paul R. Bergin & Reuven Glick & Jyh-Lin Wu, 2012. "Mussa redux and conditional PPP," Working Paper Series 2012-14, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  7. M. Hashem Pesaran, 2006. "Estimation and Inference in Large Heterogeneous Panels with a Multifactor Error Structure," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 74(4), pages 967-1012, 07.
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  10. Peel, David & Sarno, Lucio & Taylor, Mark P, 2001. "Nonlinear Mean-Reversion in Real Exchange Rates: Towards a Solution to the Purchasing Power Parity Puzzles," CEPR Discussion Papers 2658, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
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  17. Jon Steinsson, 2005. "The Dynamic Behavior of the Real Exchange Rate in Sticky Price Models," Economics wp28_jonst, Department of Economics, Central bank of Iceland.
  18. Abuaf, Niso & Jorion, Philippe, 1990. " Purchasing Power Parity in the Long Run," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 45(1), pages 157-74, March.
  19. Parsley, David C & Popper, Helen A, 2001. "Official Exchange Rate Arrangements and Real Exchange Rate Behavior," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 33(4), pages 976-93, November.
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  23. Mussa, Michael, 1986. "Nominal exchange rate regimes and the behavior of real exchange rates: Evidence and implications," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 117-214, January.
  24. Sarno, Lucio & Valente, Giorgio, 2006. "Deviations from purchasing power parity under different exchange rate regimes: Do they revert and, if so, how?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(11), pages 3147-3169, November.
  25. Lutz Kilian, 1998. "Small-Sample Confidence Intervals For Impulse Response Functions," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 80(2), pages 218-230, May.
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