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VECM Estimations of the PPP Reversion Rate Revisited: The Conventional Role of Relative Price Adjustment Restored

  • Hyeongwoo Kim

Cheung et al. (2004) use a vector error correction model that allows different speeds of convergence for nominal exchange rates and relative prices toward PPP. With the current float monthly data for five countries, they argue that the sluggish PPP reversion is primarily driven by nominal exchange rate adjustment rather than price adjustment, which is at odds with the conventional sticky-price models. Major findings of this paper are twofold. First, we show that it may be inappropriate to use short-horizon high frequency data in vector error correction models, even when both the nominal exchange rate and the relative price are not weakly exogenous. Second, using a long-horizon annual data set for 11 countries vis-?vis the US, we find a significantly important role of relative prices in real exchange rate dynamics.

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Paper provided by Department of Economics, Auburn University in its series Auburn Economics Working Paper Series with number auwp2010-03.

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Date of creation: May 2010
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Handle: RePEc:abn:wpaper:auwp2010-03
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  1. Serena Ng & Pierre Perron, 2001. "LAG Length Selection and the Construction of Unit Root Tests with Good Size and Power," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 69(6), pages 1519-1554, November.
  2. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Lai, Kon S. & Bergman, Michael, 2004. "Dissecting the PPP puzzle: the unconventional roles of nominal exchange rate and price adjustments," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(1), pages 135-150, October.
  3. Claude Lopez & Christian J. Murray & David H. Papell, 2004. "State of the Art Unit Root Tests and Purchasing Power Parity," University of Cincinnati, Economics Working Papers Series 2004-04, University of Cincinnati, Department of Economics.
  4. Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth Rogoff & Ben Bernanke & Kenneth Rogoff, . "The Six Major Puzzles in International Macroeconomics: Is there a Common Cause?," Working Paper 32326, Harvard University OpenScholar.
  5. Jón Steinsson, 2008. "The Dynamic Behavior of the Real Exchange Rate in Sticky Price Models," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(1), pages 519-33, March.
  6. Martin Eichenbaum & Charles L. Evans, 1995. "Some Empirical Evidence on the Effects of Shocks to Monetary Policy on Exchange Rates," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 110(4), pages 975-1009.
  7. Charles Engel & James Morley, 2000. "The Adjustment of Prices and the Adjustment of the Exchange Rate," Discussion Papers in Economics at the University of Washington 0009, Department of Economics at the University of Washington.
  8. Kenneth A. Froot & Kenneth Rogoff, 1994. "Perspectives on PPP and Long-Run Real Exchange Rates," NBER Working Papers 4952, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Alan M. Taylor, 2000. "A Century of Purchasing-Power Parity," NBER Working Papers 8012, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. Pesaran, H. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol, 1998. "Generalized impulse response analysis in linear multivariate models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 58(1), pages 17-29, January.
  11. Charles Engel, 2000. "Comments on Obstfeld and Rogoff's "The Six Major Puzzles in International Macroeconomics: Is There a Common Cause?"," NBER Working Papers 7818, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  12. Kenneth Rogoff, 1996. "The Purchasing Power Parity Puzzle," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 34(2), pages 647-668, June.
  13. Hall, Alastair R, 1994. "Testing for a Unit Root in Time Series with Pretest Data-Based Model Selection," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 12(4), pages 461-70, October.
  14. Pesaran, M.H. & Shin, Y., 1993. "Cointegration and Speed of Convergence to Equilibrium," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9311, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  15. V. V. Chari & Patrick J. Kehoe & Ellen R. McGrattan, 1998. "Can sticky price models generate volatile and persistent real exchange rates?," Staff Report 223, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  16. Alan M. Taylor, 2000. "Potential Pitfalls for the Purchasing-Power-Parity Puzzle? Sampling and Specification Biases in Mean-Reversion Tests of the Law of One Price," NBER Working Papers 7577, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  17. Hyeongwoo Kim, 2012. "Generalized Impulse Response Analysis: General or Extreme?," Auburn Economics Working Paper Series auwp2012-04, Department of Economics, Auburn University.
  18. Elliott, Graham & Rothenberg, Thomas J & Stock, James H, 1996. "Efficient Tests for an Autoregressive Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(4), pages 813-36, July.
  19. Engle, Robert F & Granger, Clive W J, 1987. "Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 251-76, March.
  20. Dornbusch, Rudiger, 1976. "Expectations and Exchange Rate Dynamics," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 84(6), pages 1161-76, December.
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