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A revisit on dissecting the PPP puzzle: Evidence from a nonlinear approach

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  • Wu, Jyh-Lin
  • Chen, Pei-Fen

Abstract

The purpose of this paper is to re-investigate issues in purchasing power parity (PPP) convergence using a threshold vector error-correction model with deutschmark-based exchange rates. We find that the half-life of real exchange rates is less than two and a half years, that PPP convergence is attributed to nominal exchange rate adjustment for most countries, and that the half-life of nominal exchange rates is close to that of real rates and is longer than that of prices in general. Our findings are consistent with those of Cheung et al. [Cheung et al. 2004, Journal of International Economics 64, 135-150] except that our estimated half lives of real and nominal exchange rates are much shorter than theirs. These findings are important since they explain the PPP puzzle and indicate the significance of a nonlinear model in examining the engine of PPP convergence.

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  • Wu, Jyh-Lin & Chen, Pei-Fen, 2008. "A revisit on dissecting the PPP puzzle: Evidence from a nonlinear approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 25(4), pages 684-695, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:25:y:2008:i:4:p:684-695
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    2. Gradojevic, Nikola & Erdemlioglu, Deniz & Gençay, Ramazan, 2020. "A new wavelet-based ultra-high-frequency analysis of triangular currency arbitrage," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 57-73.
    3. Hwa-Taek Lee & Gawon Yoon, 2013. "Does purchasing power parity hold sometimes? Regime switching in real exchange rates," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(16), pages 2279-2294, June.
    4. Anwar Al-Gasaymeh & John Kasem, 2016. "Long-Run Purchasing Power Parity And Exchange Rates: Evidence From The Middle East," The International Journal of Business and Finance Research, The Institute for Business and Finance Research, vol. 10(2), pages 41-53.
    5. Hai Long Vo & Duc Hong Vo, 2023. "The purchasing power parity and exchange‐rate economics half a century on," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 37(2), pages 446-479, April.
    6. Adrian Marek Burda & Blazej Mazur & Mateusz Pawel Pipien, 2017. "Forecasting EUR/PLN Exchange Rate: the Role of Purchasing Power Parity Hypothesis in ESTVEC Models," Dynamic Econometric Models, Uniwersytet Mikolaja Kopernika, vol. 17, pages 97-114.
    7. Deokwoo Nam, 2011. "The Roles of Nominal Exchange Rate and Relative Price Adjustments in PPP Reversion," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 43(4), pages 775-785, June.

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