IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/hal/journl/hal-02512423.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

A new wavelet-based ultra-high-frequency analysis of triangular currency arbitrage

Author

Listed:
  • Nikola Gradojevic

    (LEM - Lille économie management - UMR 9221 - UA - Université d'Artois - UCL - Université catholique de Lille - Université de Lille - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Deniz Erdemlioglu

    (LEM - Lille économie management - UMR 9221 - UA - Université d'Artois - UCL - Université catholique de Lille - Université de Lille - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Ramazan Gençay

Abstract

We develop a new framework to characterize the dynamics of triangular (three-point) arbitrage in electronic foreign exchange markets. To examine the properties of arbitrage, we propose a wavelet-based regression approach that is robust to estimation errors, measurement bias and persistence. Relying on this wavelet-based (denoising) inference, we consider various liquidity and market risk indicators to predict arbitrage in a unique ultra-high-frequency exchange rate data set. We find strong empirical evidence that limit order book, realized volatility and cross-correlations help forecast triangular arbitrage profits. The estimates are statistically significant and relevant for investors such that on average 80−100 arbitrage opportunities exist with a short duration (100−500 ms) on a daily basis. Our analysis also reveals that triangular arbitrage opportunities are counter-cyclical at ultra-high-frequency levels: arbitrage returns tend to increase (decrease) in periods when volatility risk and correlations are relatively low (high). We show that liquidity-driven microstructure measures, however, appear to be more powerful in exploiting arbitrage profits when compared to market-driven factors.

Suggested Citation

  • Nikola Gradojevic & Deniz Erdemlioglu & Ramazan Gençay, 2020. "A new wavelet-based ultra-high-frequency analysis of triangular currency arbitrage," Post-Print hal-02512423, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-02512423
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2019.05.006
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal.science/hal-02512423
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://hal.science/hal-02512423/document
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.econmod.2019.05.006?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Roman Kozhan & Wing Wah Tham, 2012. "Execution Risk in High-Frequency Arbitrage," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 58(11), pages 2131-2149, November.
    2. Paolo Pasquariello, 2014. "Financial Market Dislocations," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 27(6), pages 1868-1914.
    3. Philippe Mueller & Alireza Tahbaz-Salehi & Andrea Vedolin, 2017. "Exchange Rates and Monetary Policy Uncertainty," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 72(3), pages 1213-1252, June.
    4. Bryan Kelly & Ľuboš Pástor & Pietro Veronesi, 2016. "The Price of Political Uncertainty: Theory and Evidence from the Option Market," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 71(5), pages 2417-2480, October.
    5. Darolles, Serge & Le Fol, Gaëlle & Mero, Gulten, 2017. "Mixture of distribution hypothesis: Analyzing daily liquidity frictions and information flows," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 201(2), pages 367-383.
    6. Sun, Edward W. & Meinl, Thomas, 2012. "A new wavelet-based denoising algorithm for high-frequency financial data mining," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 217(3), pages 589-599.
    7. Martin D. D. Evans & Richard K. Lyons, 2017. "Exchange Rate Fundamentals and Order Flow," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Studies in Foreign Exchange Economics, chapter 16, pages 645-724, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    8. Arash Aloosh & Geert Bekaert, 2022. "Currency Factors," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 68(6), pages 4042-4064, June.
    9. Lyons, Richard K. & Moore, Michael J., 2009. "An information approach to international currencies," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 79(2), pages 211-221, November.
    10. Diebold, Francis X & Mariano, Roberto S, 2002. "Comparing Predictive Accuracy," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 134-144, January.
    11. Peter F. Christoffersen & Francis X. Diebold, 2006. "Financial Asset Returns, Direction-of-Change Forecasting, and Volatility Dynamics," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 52(8), pages 1273-1287, August.
    12. Martin D. Gould & Mason A. Porter & Sam D. Howison, 2017. "Quasi-centralized limit order books," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(6), pages 831-853, June.
    13. Fan, Jianqing & Wang, Yazhen, 2007. "Multi-Scale Jump and Volatility Analysis for High-Frequency Financial Data," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 102, pages 1349-1362, December.
    14. Takatoshi Ito & Kenta Yamada & Misako Takayasu & Hideki Takayasu, 2012. "Free Lunch! Arbitrage Opportunities in the Foreign Exchange Markets," NBER Working Papers 18541, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    15. Bloomfield, Robert & O'Hara, Maureen & Saar, Gideon, 2005. "The "make or take" decision in an electronic market: Evidence on the evolution of liquidity," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(1), pages 165-199, January.
    16. Piccotti, Louis R., 2018. "Jumps, cojumps, and efficiency in the spot foreign exchange market," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 49-67.
    17. Pierre Bajgrowicz & Olivier Scaillet & Adrien Treccani, 2016. "Jumps in High-Frequency Data: Spurious Detections, Dynamics, and News," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 62(8), pages 2198-2217, August.
    18. Myoung Shik Choi, 2011. "Momentary exchange rate locked in a triangular mechanism of international currency," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 43(16), pages 2079-2087.
    19. Giannellis, Nikolaos & Papadopoulos, Athanasios P., 2009. "Testing for efficiency in selected developing foreign exchange markets: An equilibrium-based approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 155-166, January.
    20. Turan Bali, 2007. "Modeling the dynamics of interest rate volatility with skewed fat-tailed distributions," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 151(1), pages 151-178, April.
    21. Cenedese, Gino & Sarno, Lucio & Tsiakas, Ilias, 2014. "Foreign exchange risk and the predictability of carry trade returns," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 302-313.
    22. Hasbrouck, Joel, 1995. "One Security, Many Markets: Determining the Contributions to Price Discovery," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(4), pages 1175-1199, September.
    23. Daniel J. Fenn & Sam D. Howison & Mark Mcdonald & Stacy Williams & Neil F. Johnson, 2009. "The Mirage Of Triangular Arbitrage In The Spot Foreign Exchange Market," International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance (IJTAF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 12(08), pages 1105-1123.
    24. Harris, Lawrence E. & Panchapagesan, Venkatesh, 2005. "The information content of the limit order book: evidence from NYSE specialist trading decisions," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 8(1), pages 25-67, February.
    25. Sun, Edward W. & Chen, Yi-Ting & Yu, Min-Teh, 2015. "Generalized optimal wavelet decomposing algorithm for big financial data," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 165(C), pages 194-214.
    26. Charles Cao & Oliver Hansch & Xiaoxin Wang, 2009. "The information content of an open limit‐order book," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(1), pages 16-41, January.
    27. Massimiliano Caporin & Angelo Ranaldo & Gabriel G. Velo, 2015. "Precious metals under the microscope: a high-frequency analysis," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(5), pages 743-759, May.
    28. Gençay, Ramazan & Gradojevic, Nikola, 2013. "Private information and its origins in an electronic foreign exchange market," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 86-93.
    29. Ron Kaniel & Hong Liu, 2006. "So What Orders Do Informed Traders Use?," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 79(4), pages 1867-1914, July.
    30. Newey, Whitney & West, Kenneth, 2014. "A simple, positive semi-definite, heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation consistent covariance matrix," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 33(1), pages 125-132.
    31. Kozhan, Roman & Salmon, Mark, 2012. "The information content of a limit order book: The case of an FX market," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 1-28.
    32. Alain P. Chaboud & Benjamin Chiquoine & Erik Hjalmarsson & Clara Vega, 2014. "Rise of the Machines: Algorithmic Trading in the Foreign Exchange Market," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 69(5), pages 2045-2084, October.
    33. Knif, Johan & Pynnonen, Seppo & Luoma, Martti, 1995. "An analysis of lead-lag structures using a frequency domain approach: Empirical evidence from the Finnish and Swedish stock markets," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 81(2), pages 259-270, March.
    34. Wu, Jyh-Lin & Chen, Pei-Fen, 2008. "A revisit on dissecting the PPP puzzle: Evidence from a nonlinear approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 25(4), pages 684-695, July.
    35. Haven, Emmanuel & Liu, Xiaoquan & Shen, Liya, 2012. "De-noising option prices with the wavelet method," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 222(1), pages 104-112.
    36. Moore, Michael J. & Payne, Richard, 2011. "On the sources of private information in FX markets," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(5), pages 1250-1262, May.
    37. Aiba, Yukihiro & Hatano, Naomichi, 2004. "Triangular arbitrage in the foreign exchange market," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 344(1), pages 174-177.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Massimiliano Caporin & Riccardo (Jack) Lucchetti & Giulio Palomba, 2020. "Analytical Gradients of Dynamic Conditional Correlation Models," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 13(3), pages 1-21, March.
    2. Fu, Hsuan & Luger, Richard, 2022. "Multiple testing of the forward rate unbiasedness hypothesis across currencies," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 232-245.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Tian, Xiao & Duong, Huu Nhan & Kalev, Petko S., 2019. "Information content of the limit order book for crude oil futures price volatility," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 584-597.
    2. Wu, Zhen-Xing & Gau, Yin-Feng & Chen, Yu-Lun, 2023. "Price discovery and triangular arbitrage in currency markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    3. Nawn, Samarpan & Banerjee, Ashok, 2019. "Do the limit orders of proprietary and agency algorithmic traders discover or obscure security prices?," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 109-125.
    4. Ranaldo, Angelo & Somogyi, Fabricius, 2021. "Asymmetric information risk in FX markets," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 140(2), pages 391-411.
    5. Cenesizoglu, Tolga & Dionne, Georges & Zhou, Xiaozhou, 2022. "Asymmetric effects of the limit order book on price dynamics," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 77-98.
    6. Mehdi Arzandeh & Julieta Frank, 2019. "Price Discovery in Agricultural Futures Markets: Should We Look beyond the Best Bid-Ask Spread?," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 101(5), pages 1482-1498.
    7. Julia Reynolds & Leopold Sögner & Martin Wagner, 2021. "Deviations from Triangular Arbitrage Parity in Foreign Exchange and Bitcoin Markets," Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, vol. 13(2), pages 105-146, June.
    8. Mazza, Paolo, 2015. "Price dynamics and market liquidity: An intraday event study on Euronext," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 139-153.
    9. King, Michael R. & Osler, Carol L. & Rime, Dagfinn, 2013. "The market microstructure approach to foreign exchange: Looking back and looking forward," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 95-119.
    10. Mueller, Philippe & Stathopoulos, Andreas & Vedolin, Andrea, 2017. "International correlation risk," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 126(2), pages 270-299.
    11. Arzandeh, Mehdi & Frank, Julieta, 2017. "The Information Content of the Limit Order Book," 7th Annual Canadian Agri-Food Policy Conference, January 11-13, 2017, Ottawa, ON 253251, Canadian Agricultural Economics Society.
    12. Thierry Foucault & Roman Kozhan & Wing Wah Tham, 2017. "Toxic Arbitrage," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 30(4), pages 1053-1094.
    13. Yi-Ting Chen & Edward W. Sun & Min-Teh Yu, 2018. "Risk Assessment with Wavelet Feature Engineering for High-Frequency Portfolio Trading," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 52(2), pages 653-684, August.
    14. Park, Yang-Ho, 2022. "Informed trading in foreign exchange futures: Payroll news timing," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 135(C).
    15. Takatoshi Ito & Kenta Yamada & Misako Takayasu & Hideki Takayasu, 2020. "Execution Risk and Arbitrage Opportunities in the Foreign Exchange Markets," NBER Working Papers 26706, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    16. Mehdi Arzandeh & Julieta Frank, 2019. "Price Discovery in Agricultural Futures Markets: Should We Look beyond the Best Bid‐Ask Spread?," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 101(5), pages 1482-1498, October.
    17. Geir H. Bjønnes & Carol L. Osler & Dagfinn Rime, 2021. "Price discovery in two‐tier markets," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(2), pages 3109-3133, April.
    18. Arzandeh, Mehdi & Frank, Julieta, 2017. "Price Discovery in Agricultural Futures Markets: Should We Look Beyond the Best Bid-Ask Spread?," Annual Meeting, 2017, June 18-21, Montreal, Canada 259344, Canadian Agricultural Economics Society.
    19. Kozhan, Roman & Salmon, Mark, 2012. "The information content of a limit order book: The case of an FX market," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 1-28.
    20. Dionne, Georges & Pacurar, Maria & Zhou, Xiaozhou, 2015. "Liquidity-adjusted Intraday Value at Risk modeling and risk management: An application to data from Deutsche Börse," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 202-219.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Foreign exchange markets; Triangular arbitrage; Limit order book; Wavelets;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • G17 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Financial Forecasting and Simulation
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-02512423. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: CCSD (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.