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International Correlation Risk

Author

Listed:
  • Andreas Stathopoulos

    (University of Southern California)

  • Andrea Vedolin

    (London School of Economics)

  • Philippe Mueller

    (London School of Economics)

Abstract

Foreign exchange correlation is a key driver of risk premia in the cross-section of carry trade returns. First, we show that the correlation risk premium, defined as the difference between the risk-neutral and objective measure correlation is large (15% per year) and highly time-varying. Second, sorting currencies according to their exposure with correlation innovations yields portfolios with attractive risk and return characteristics. We also find that high (low) interest rate currencies have negative (positive) loadings on the correlation risk factor. To address our empirical findings, we consider a multi-country general equilibrium model with time-varying risk aversion generated by external habit preferences. In the model, currency risk premia mostly compensate for exposure to global risk aversion, defined as a weighted average of country risk aversions. Given countercyclical real interest rates, the model can also address the forward premium puzzle, as high interest rate currencies are exposed to (while low interest rate currencies provide a hedge to) global risk aversion risk. We also show that high global risk aversion is associated with high conditional exchange rate variance and covariance, providing theoretical justification for sorting currencies on their exposure to fluctuations of exchange rate conditional second moments.

Suggested Citation

  • Andreas Stathopoulos & Andrea Vedolin & Philippe Mueller, 2012. "International Correlation Risk," 2012 Meeting Papers 818, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  • Handle: RePEc:red:sed012:818
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Beber, Alessandro & Brandt, Michael & Cen, Jason, 2014. "Switching Risk Off: FX Correlations and Risk Premia," CEPR Discussion Papers 10214, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    2. Yang Liu & Mariano Croce & Ivan Shaliastovich & Ric Colacito, 2016. "Volatility Risk Pass-Through," 2016 Meeting Papers 135, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    3. Colacito, Riccardo & Riddiough, Steven J. & Sarno, Lucio, 2020. "Business cycles and currency returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 137(3), pages 659-678.
    4. Cenedese, Gino & Sarno, Lucio & Tsiakas, Ilias, 2014. "Foreign exchange risk and the predictability of carry trade returns," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 302-313.
    5. Lettau, Martin & Maggiori, Matteo & Weber, Michael, 2014. "Conditional risk premia in currency markets and other asset classes," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 114(2), pages 197-225.
    6. Aleksejs Krecetovs & Pasquale Della Corte, 2016. "Macro uncertainty and currency premia," 2016 Meeting Papers 624, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    7. Nicole Branger & Matthias Muck & Stefan Weisheit, 2019. "Correlation risk and international portfolio choice," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(1), pages 128-146, January.
    8. Ornelas, José Renato Haas & Mauad, Roberto Baltieri, 2019. "Volatility risk premia and future commodity returns," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 341-360.
    9. Kräussl, Roman & Lehnert, Thorsten & Stefanova, Denitsa, 2016. "The European sovereign debt crisis: What have we learned?," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(PA), pages 363-373.
    10. Filippou, Ilias & Taylor, Mark P, 2019. "Forward-Looking Policy Rules and Currency Premia," CEPR Discussion Papers 13835, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    11. Rangoanana, Motena Sefora & Bonga-Bonga, Lumengo, 2020. "Carry trade and capital market returns in South Africa," MPRA Paper 98607, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Aleksandra Babii, 2019. "Exchange Rates Co-movement and International Trade," 2019 Meeting Papers 1150, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    13. José Renato Haas Ornelas & Roberto Baltieri Mauad, 2017. "Volatility risk premia and future commodities returns," BIS Working Papers 619, Bank for International Settlements.
    14. Natalie Packham & Fabian Woebbeking, 2018. "A factor-model approach for correlation scenarios and correlation stress-testing," Papers 1807.11381, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2019.

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