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International correlation risk

Author

Listed:
  • Mueller, Philippe
  • Stathopoulos, Andreas
  • Vedolin, Andrea

Abstract

We show that the cross-sectional dispersion of conditional foreign exchange (FX) correlation is countercyclical and that currencies that perform badly (well) during periods of high dispersion yield high (low) average excess returns. We also find a negative cross-sectional association between average FX correlations and average option-implied FX correlation risk premiums. Our findings show that while investors in spot currency markets require a positive risk premium for exposure to high dispersion states, FX option prices are consistent with investors being compensated for the risk of low dispersion states. To address our empirical findings, we propose a no-arbitrage model that features unspanned FX correlation risk.

Suggested Citation

  • Mueller, Philippe & Stathopoulos, Andreas & Vedolin, Andrea, 2017. "International correlation risk," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 84140, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
  • Handle: RePEc:ehl:lserod:84140
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    File URL: http://eprints.lse.ac.uk/84140/
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Yang Liu & Mariano Croce & Ivan Shaliastovich & Ric Colacito, 2016. "Volatility Risk Pass-Through," 2016 Meeting Papers 135, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    2. Colacito, Riccardo & Riddiough, Steven J. & Sarno, Lucio, 2020. "Business cycles and currency returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 137(3), pages 659-678.
    3. Nicole Branger & Matthias Muck & Stefan Weisheit, 2019. "Correlation risk and international portfolio choice," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(1), pages 128-146, January.
    4. N. Packham & F. Woebbeking, 2021. "Correlation scenarios and correlation stress testing," Papers 2107.06839, arXiv.org.
    5. Mykola Babiak & Jozef Barunik, 2021. "Currency Network Risk," Papers 2101.09738, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2021.
    6. Richard D. F. Harris & Xuguang Li & Fang Qiao, 2019. "Option‐implied betas and the cross section of stock returns," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(1), pages 94-108, January.
    7. Dennis Umlandt, 2020. "Likelihood-based Dynamic Asset Pricing: Learning Time-varying Risk Premia from Cross-Sectional Models," Working Paper Series 2020-06, University of Trier, Research Group Quantitative Finance and Risk Analysis.
    8. Kalyvas, Antonios & Papakyriakou, Panayiotis & Sakkas, Athanasios & Urquhart, Andrew, 2020. "What drives Bitcoin’s price crash risk?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 191(C).
    9. Gavazzoni, Federico & Santacreu, Ana Maria, 2020. "International R&D spillovers and asset prices," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 136(2), pages 330-354.
    10. Opie, Wei & Riddiough, Steven J., 2020. "Global currency hedging with common risk factors," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 136(3), pages 780-805.
    11. Qin, Xiao, 2020. "Oil shocks and financial systemic stress: International evidence," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 92(C).
    12. Filippou, Ilias & Taylor, Mark P, 2019. "Forward-Looking Policy Rules and Currency Premia," CEPR Discussion Papers 13835, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    13. Aleksandra Babii, 2019. "Exchange Rates Co-movement and International Trade," 2019 Meeting Papers 1150, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    14. Packham, N. & Woebbeking, C.F., 2019. "A factor-model approach for correlation scenarios and correlation stress testing," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 92-103.
    15. Mykola Babiak & Jozef Barunik, 2021. "Uncertainty Network Risk and Currency Returns," Papers 2101.09738, arXiv.org.
    16. Natalie Packham & Fabian Woebbeking, 2018. "A factor-model approach for correlation scenarios and correlation stress-testing," Papers 1807.11381, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2019.
    17. Kerstin Bernoth & Jürgen von Hagen & Casper G. de Vries, 2020. "Currency Futures' Risk Premia and Risk Factors," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1866, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    correlation risk; exchange rate; international finance;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill
    • F3 - International Economics - - International Finance
    • G3 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance

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