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Global Macro Risks in Currency Excess Returns

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  • Kimberly Berg
  • Nelson C. Mark

Abstract

We study a cross section of carry-trade-generated currency excess returns in terms of their exposure to global fundamental macroeconomic risk. The cross-country high-minuslow (HML) conditional skewness of the unemployment gap—our measure of global macroeconomic uncertainty—is a factor that is robustly priced in currency excess returns. A widening of the HML gap signifies increasing divergence, disparity and inequality of economic performance across countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Kimberly Berg & Nelson C. Mark, 2016. "Global Macro Risks in Currency Excess Returns," Staff Working Papers 16-32, Bank of Canada.
  • Handle: RePEc:bca:bocawp:16-32
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    Cited by:

    1. Nucera, Federico, 2017. "Unemployment fluctuations and the predictability of currency returns," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 88-106.
    2. Riccardo Colacito & Steven J. Riddiough & Lucio Sarno, 2019. "Business Cycles and Currency Returns," NBER Working Papers 26299, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Ferrara, L. & Istrefi, K., 2016. "Impact des chocs d’incertitude sur l’économie mondiale – Synthèse de conférence," Bulletin de la Banque de France, Banque de France, issue 206, pages 61-68.
    4. Poulsen, Thomas & Lema, Rasmus, 2017. "Is the supply chain ready for the green transformation? The case of offshore wind logistics," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 758-771.
    5. Yin-Wong Cheung & Wenhao Wang, 2020. "Uncovered Interest Rate Parity Redux: Non- Uniform Effects," GRU Working Paper Series GRU_2020_004, City University of Hong Kong, Department of Economics and Finance, Global Research Unit.
    6. Constantin Bürgi & Vida Bobic & Min Wu, 2019. "Net Capital Flows and Portfolio Diversification," CESifo Working Paper Series 7883, CESifo.
    7. Yang Liu & Mariano Croce & Ivan Shaliastovich & Ric Colacito, 2016. "Volatility Risk Pass-Through," 2016 Meeting Papers 135, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    8. Dalton, Gordon & Bardócz, Tamás & Blanch, Mike & Campbell, David & Johnson, Kate & Lawrence, Gareth & Lilas, Theodore & Friis-Madsen, Erik & Neumann, Frank & Nikitas, Nikitakos & Ortega, Saul Torres &, 2019. "Feasibility of investment in Blue Growth multiple-use of space and multi-use platform projects; results of a novel assessment approach and case studies," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 107(C), pages 338-359.
    9. Thakor, Anjan V., 2020. "Fintech and banking: What do we know?," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 41(C).
    10. Ismailov, Adilzhan & Rossi, Barbara, 2018. "Uncertainty and deviations from uncovered interest rate parity," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 242-259.
    11. Berg, Kimberly A. & Mark, Nelson C., 2018. "Measures of global uncertainty and carry-trade excess returns," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 212-227.
    12. Dahlquist, Magnus & Hasseltoft, Henrik, 2020. "Economic momentum and currency returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 136(1), pages 152-167.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Asset Pricing; Exchange rates; Interest rates;

    JEL classification:

    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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