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Global Macro Risks in Currency Excess Returns

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  • Kimberly Berg
  • Nelson C. Mark

Abstract

We study a cross section of carry-trade-generated currency excess returns in terms of their exposure to global fundamental macroeconomic risk. The cross-country high-minuslow (HML) conditional skewness of the unemployment gap—our measure of global macroeconomic uncertainty—is a factor that is robustly priced in currency excess returns. A widening of the HML gap signifies increasing divergence, disparity and inequality of economic performance across countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Kimberly Berg & Nelson C. Mark, 2016. "Global Macro Risks in Currency Excess Returns," Staff Working Papers 16-32, Bank of Canada.
    • Handle: RePEc:bca:bocawp:16-32
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    Cited by:

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    2. Park, Sunjin, 2022. "Heterogeneous beliefs in macroeconomic growth prospects and the carry risk premium," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 136(C).
    3. Colacito, Riccardo & Riddiough, Steven J. & Sarno, Lucio, 2020. "Business cycles and currency returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 137(3), pages 659-678.
    4. Ferrara, L. & Istrefi, K., 2016. "Impact des chocs d’incertitude sur l’économie mondiale – Synthèse de conférence," Bulletin de la Banque de France, Banque de France, issue 206, pages 61-68.
    5. Bathia, Deven & Demirer, Riza & Gupta, Rangan & Kotzé, Kevin, 2021. "Unemployment fluctuations and currency returns in the United Kingdom: Evidence from over one and a half century of data," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 61(C).
    6. Poulsen, Thomas & Lema, Rasmus, 2017. "Is the supply chain ready for the green transformation? The case of offshore wind logistics," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 758-771.
    7. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Wang, Wenhao, 2022. "Uncovered interest rate parity redux: Non-uniform effects," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 133-151.
    8. Tchai Tavor, 2023. "The effect of natural gas discoveries in Israel on the strength of its currency," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 62(2), pages 236-256, June.
    9. Ivanova, Yuliya & Neely, Christopher J. & Weller, Paul & Famiglietti, Matthew T., 2021. "Can risk explain the profitability of technical trading in currency markets?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 110(C).
    10. Constantin Bürgi & Vida Bobic & Min Wu, 2019. "Net Capital Flows and Portfolio Diversification," CESifo Working Paper Series 7883, CESifo.
    11. Fernandez, Julian, 2020. "Exchange Rate Uncertainty and the Interest Rate Parity," MPRA Paper 116010, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2022.
    12. Fousseni Chabi-Yo & Riccardo Colacito, 2019. "The Term Structures of Coentropy in International Financial Markets," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 65(8), pages 3541-3558, August.
    13. Pasquale Della Corte & Lucio Sarno & Maik Schmeling & Christian Wagner, 2022. "Exchange Rates and Sovereign Risk," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 68(8), pages 5591-5617, August.
    14. Zhang, Ziyun & Chen, Su & Li, Bo, 2022. "Does previous carry trade position affect following investors' decision-making and carry returns?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    15. Jamali, Ibrahim & Yamani, Ehab & Smallwood, Aaron D., 2023. "An investment-based explanation of currency excess returns," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    16. Yang Liu & Mariano Croce & Ivan Shaliastovich & Ric Colacito, 2016. "Volatility Risk Pass-Through," 2016 Meeting Papers 135, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    17. Dalton, Gordon & Bardócz, Tamás & Blanch, Mike & Campbell, David & Johnson, Kate & Lawrence, Gareth & Lilas, Theodore & Friis-Madsen, Erik & Neumann, Frank & Nikitas, Nikitakos & Ortega, Saul Torres &, 2019. "Feasibility of investment in Blue Growth multiple-use of space and multi-use platform projects; results of a novel assessment approach and case studies," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 107(C), pages 338-359.
    18. Ismailov, Adilzhan & Rossi, Barbara, 2018. "Uncertainty and deviations from uncovered interest rate parity," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 242-259.
    19. Michael Melvin & Frank Westermann, 2022. "Chinese Exchange Rate Policy: Lessons for Global Investors," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 54(1), pages 145-168, February.
    20. Berg, Kimberly A. & Mark, Nelson C., 2018. "Measures of global uncertainty and carry-trade excess returns," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 212-227.
    21. Lu Yang & Lei Yang & Xue Cui, 2023. "Sovereign default network and currency risk premia," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 9(1), pages 1-22, December.
    22. Ziyun Zhang & Sen Guo, 2021. "What Factors Affect the RMB Carry Trade Return for Sustainability? An Empirical Analysis by Using an ARDL Model," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(24), pages 1-19, December.
    23. Dahlquist, Magnus & Hasseltoft, Henrik, 2020. "Economic momentum and currency returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 136(1), pages 152-167.
    24. Thomas A. Maurer & Thuy-Duong Tô & Ngoc-Khanh Tran, 2019. "Pricing Risks Across Currency Denominations," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 65(11), pages 5308-5336, November.
    25. Byrne, Joseph P. & Sakemoto, Ryuta, 2021. "The conditional volatility premium on currency portfolios," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Asset Pricing; Exchange rates; Interest rates;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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