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The Time-Varying Systematic Risk of Carry Trade Strategies

Author

Listed:
  • Charlotte Christiansen

    (School of Economics and Management, Aarhus University and CREATES)

  • Angelo Ranaldo

    (Research Department, Swiss National Bank, Switzerland)

  • Paul Söderllind

    (Swiss Institute for Banking and Finance, University of St. Gallen)

Abstract

To capture time-variation in the risk exposure of exchange rates, this paper suggests a factor model with stock and bond markets as the explanatory factors - but where the betas are allowed to depend on the exchange rate volatility. Empirical results on daily data from 1995 to 2008 show that a typical carry trade strategy based on 10 currencies from major industrialized countries has much higher exposure to the stock market and also more mean reversion in volatile periods. The findings are robust to various extensions, including adding more currencies and other regime variables.

Suggested Citation

  • Charlotte Christiansen & Angelo Ranaldo & Paul Söderllind, 2009. "The Time-Varying Systematic Risk of Carry Trade Strategies," CREATES Research Papers 2009-15, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    • Handle: RePEc:aah:create:2009-15
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    carry trade; factor model; smooth transition regression; time- varying betas;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions

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