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Regime switches in exchange rate volatility and uncovered interest parity

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  • Ichiue, Hibiki
  • Koyama, Kentaro

Abstract

We use a regime-switching model to examine how exchange rate volatility is related to the failure of uncovered interest parity. Main findings are as follows. First, exchange rate returns are strongly influenced by regime switches in the relationship between the returns and interest rate differentials. Second, low-yielding currencies appreciate less frequently, but once it occurs, their movements are faster than when they depreciate. Third, depreciation of low-yielding currencies and low volatility are mutually dependent on each other. Finally, these three findings are more evident for shorter horizons. The second and third results are consistent with a market participants’ view: short-term carry trades in a low-volatility environment and their rapid unwinding substantially influence exchange rates. We consider the effects of funding liquidity to explain these results.

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  • Ichiue, Hibiki & Koyama, Kentaro, 2011. "Regime switches in exchange rate volatility and uncovered interest parity," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(7), pages 1436-1450.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:jimfin:v:30:y:2011:i:7:p:1436-1450
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2011.07.003
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    Cited by:

    1. Egbers, Tom & Swinkels, Laurens, 2015. "Can implied volatility predict returns on the currency carry trade?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 14-26.
    2. Andrew Ang & Allan Timmermann, 2012. "Regime Changes and Financial Markets," Annual Review of Financial Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 4(1), pages 313-337, October.
    3. Chien-Hsiu Lin & Shih-Kuei Lin & An-Chi Wu, 2015. "Foreign exchange option pricing in the currency cycle with jump risks," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 44(4), pages 755-789, May.
    4. Christiansen, Charlotte & Ranaldo, Angelo & Söderlind, Paul, 2011. "The Time-Varying Systematic Risk of Carry Trade Strategies," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 46(04), pages 1107-1125, September.
    5. Jeff Fleming & Chris Kirby, 2013. "Component-Driven Regime-Switching Volatility," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Society for Financial Econometrics, vol. 11(2), pages 263-301, March.
    6. Li, Dandan & Ghoshray, Atanu & Morley, Bruce, 2012. "Measuring the risk premium in uncovered interest parity using the component GARCH-M model," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 167-176.
    7. Kim, Suk-Joong, 2015. "Australian Dollar carry trades: Time varying probabilities and determinants," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 64-75.
    8. Jessica James & Kristjan Kasikov & Aysu Secmen, 2009. "[image omitted] Uncovered interest parity and the FX carry trade," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 9(2), pages 123-127.
    9. Li, Dandan & Ghoshray, A. & Morley, B., 2011. "Uncovered Interest Parity and the Risk Premium," Department of Economics Working Papers 24072, University of Bath, Department of Economics.
    10. Hibiki Ichiue & Frederic Lambert, 2016. "Post-crisis International Banking; An Analysis with New Regulatory Survey Data," IMF Working Papers 16/88, International Monetary Fund.
    11. Li, Dandan & Ghoshray, Atanu & Morley, Bruce, 2013. "An empirical study of nonlinear adjustment in the UIP model using a smooth transition regression model," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 109-120.
    12. José Carreño & Paulo Cox, 2014. "Carry Trade y Turbulencias Cambiarias con el Peso Chileno," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 733, Central Bank of Chile.
    13. Omer, Muhammad & de Haan, Jakob & Scholtens, Bert, 2013. "Does Uncovered Interest rate Parity Hold After All?," MPRA Paper 47572, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Aidan Corcoran, 2009. "The Determinants of Carry Trade Risk Premia," The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series iiisdp287, IIIS.
    15. repec:ecr:col070:41256 is not listed on IDEAS
    16. Su, EnDer, 2017. "Stock index hedging using a trend and volatility regime-switching model involving hedging cost," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 233-254.
    17. Clarida, Richard & Davis, Josh & Pedersen, Niels, 2009. "Currency carry trade regimes: Beyond the Fama regression," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(8), pages 1375-1389, December.
    18. José Renato Haas Ornelas, 2017. "Expected Currency Returns and Volatility Risk Premia," Working Papers Series 454, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    19. Alessio Anzuini & Francesca Brusa, 2016. "Carry trades and exchange rate volatility: a TVAR approach," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1046, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    20. Robert Dixon & Zhichao Zhang & Yang Dai, 2016. "Exchange Rate Flexibility in China: Measurement, Regime Shifts and Driving Forces of Change," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(5), pages 875-892, November.
    21. Muhammad Omer & Jakob de Haan & Bert Scholtens, 2014. "Testing uncovered interest rate parity using LIBOR," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 46(30), pages 3708-3723, October.
    22. BenSaïda, Ahmed, 2015. "The frequency of regime switching in financial market volatility," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 63-79.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Uncovered interest rate parity; Forward discount puzzle; Carry trade; Markov-switching model; Bayesian Gibbs sampling;

    JEL classification:

    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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