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Carry Trades, Monetary Policy and Speculative Dynamics

Author

Listed:
  • Plantin, Guillaume
  • Shin, Hyun Song

Abstract

We ask when currency carry trades are associated with destabilizing dynamics in the foreign exchange market, and investigate the role of monetary policy rules in setting of such dynamics. In a model where the exchange rate has a long-term fundamental anchor, we find that carry trades can be stabilizing or destabilizing at shorter horizons, depending on the propensity of capital inflows to overheat the recipient economy. In the destabilizing case, we solve for a unique equilibrium that exhibits the classic pattern of the carry trade recipient currency appreciating for extended periods, punctuated by sharp falls.

Suggested Citation

  • Plantin, Guillaume & Shin, Hyun Song, 2011. "Carry Trades, Monetary Policy and Speculative Dynamics," CEPR Discussion Papers 8224, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:8224
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Emmanuel Farhi & Xavier Gabaix, "undated". "Rare Disasters and Exchange Rates," Working Paper 71001, Harvard University OpenScholar.
    2. Carlsson, Hans & van Damme, Eric, 1993. "Global Games and Equilibrium Selection," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(5), pages 989-1018, September.
    3. Francis Breedon, 2001. "Market liquidity under stress: observations from the FX market," BIS Papers chapters,in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Market liquidity: proceedings of a workshop held at the BIS, volume 2, pages 149-151 Bank for International Settlements.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Craig Burnside, 2015. "The Carry Trade in Industrialized and Emerging Markets," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series,in: Claudio Raddatz & Diego Saravia & Jaume Ventura (ed.), Global Liquidity, Spillovers to Emerging Markets and Policy Responses, edition 1, volume 20, chapter 8, pages 245-280 Central Bank of Chile.
    2. Laborda, Juan & Laborda, Ricardo & Olmo, Jose, 2014. "Optimal currency carry trade strategies," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 52-66.
    3. Daniela Gabor, 2011. "Paradigm shift? A critique of the IMF’s new approach to capital controls," Working Papers 1109, Department of Accounting, Economics and Finance, Bristol Business School, University of the West of England, Bristol.
    4. Daniela Gabor, 2012. "Managing Capital Accounts in Emerging Markets: Lessons from the Global Financial Crisis," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(6), pages 714-731, June.
    5. Bank for International Settlements, 2015. "Currency carry trades in Latin America," BIS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 81, November.
    6. Baldursson, Fridrik Mar & Portes, Richard, 2013. "Gambling for resurrection in Iceland: the rise and fall of the banks," CEPR Discussion Papers 9664, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    7. José Carreño & Paulo Cox, 2014. "Carry Trade y Turbulencias Cambiarias con el Peso Chileno," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 733, Central Bank of Chile.
    8. Enders, Zeno & Hakenes, Hendrik Hakenes, 2014. "On the Existence and Prevention of Speculative Bubbles," Working Papers 0567, University of Heidelberg, Department of Economics.
    9. Shakill Hassan & Sean Smith, 2011. "The Rand as a Carry Trade Target: Risk, Returns and Policy Implications," Working Papers 235, Economic Research Southern Africa.
    10. repec:ecr:col070:41256 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Ledenyov, Dimitri O. & Ledenyov, Viktor O., 2015. "Wave function method to forecast foreign currencies exchange rates at ultra high frequency electronic trading in foreign currencies exchange markets," MPRA Paper 67470, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. King, Michael R. & Osler, Carol L. & Rime, Dagfinn, 2013. "The market microstructure approach to foreign exchange: Looking back and looking forward," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 95-119.
    13. Ichiue, Hibiki & Koyama, Kentaro, 2011. "Regime switches in exchange rate volatility and uncovered interest parity," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(7), pages 1436-1450.
    14. Vistesen, Claus, 2008. "Of Low Yielders and Carry Trading – the JPY and CHF as Market Risk Sentiment Gauges," MPRA Paper 9952, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Jeremy Graveline & Irina Zviadadze & Mikhail Chernov, 2012. "Crash Risk in Currency Returns," 2012 Meeting Papers 753, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    16. Prasanna Gai, 2012. "Discussion of Taming the Real Estate Beast: The Effects of Monetary and Macroprudential Policies on Housing Prices and Credit," RBA Annual Conference Volume,in: Alexandra Heath & Frank Packer & Callan Windsor (ed.), Property Markets and Financial Stability Reserve Bank of Australia.
    17. Matthias Gubler, 2014. "Carry Trade Activities: A Multivariate Threshold Model Analysis," Working Papers 2014-06, Swiss National Bank.
    18. repec:wsi:jicepx:v:03:y:2012:i:03:n:s1793993312500184 is not listed on IDEAS
    19. Copeland, Laurence & Lu, Wenna, 2013. "Dodging the Steamroller: Fundamentals versus the Carry Trade," Cardiff Economics Working Papers E2013/11, Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Economics Section, revised Dec 2013.
    20. Philip Lane, 2013. "International Capital Flows and Domestic Financial Conditions: Lessons for Emerging Asia," The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series iiisdp438, IIIS.
    21. Chernov, Mikhail & Graveline, Jeremy & Zviadadze, Irina, 2012. "Sources of Risk in Currency Returns," CEPR Discussion Papers 8745, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    22. Kornél Kisgergely, 2012. "Is there a carry trade channel of monetary policy in emerging countries?," MNB Working Papers 2012/3, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary).
    23. Guimarães, Bernardo de Vasconcellos & Machado, Caio Henrique & Pereira, Ana Elisa Gonçalves, 2017. "Dynamic coordination with timing frictions: theory and applications," Textos para discussão 461, FGV/EESP - Escola de Economia de São Paulo, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    currency crises; emerging market bubbles; speculation;

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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