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Crash Risk in Currency Returns

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  • Jeremy Graveline

    (University of Minnesota)

  • Irina Zviadadze

    (London Business School)

  • Mikhail Chernov

    (London School of Economics)

Abstract

We quantify the sources of risk in currency returns as a first step toward understanding the returns to currency speculation. To do this, we develop and estimate an empirical model of exchange rate dynamics using daily data for four currencies relative to the US dollar: the Australian dollar, the British pound, the Swiss franc, and the Japanese yen. The model includes (i) normal shocks with stochastic variance, (ii) jumps up and down in the exchange rate, and (iii) jumps in the variance. We identify these components using data on exchange rates and at-the-money implied variances. We nd that the probability of an upward (downward) jump in the exchange rate, associated with depreciation (appreciation) of the US dollar, is increasing in the domestic (foreign) interest rate. The probability of jumps in variance is increasing in the variance but not related to interest rates. Many of the jumps in exchange rates are associated with macroeconomic and political news, but jumps in variance are not. On average, jumps account for 25% (and can be as high as 40%) of total currency risk over horizons of one to three months. Preliminary analysis suggests that properties of currency returns correspond to observed option smiles and that jump risk is priced.

Suggested Citation

  • Jeremy Graveline & Irina Zviadadze & Mikhail Chernov, 2012. "Crash Risk in Currency Returns," 2012 Meeting Papers 753, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  • Handle: RePEc:red:sed012:753
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    3. Gordon Y. Liao & Tony Zhang, 2020. "The Hedging Channel of Exchange Rate Determination," International Finance Discussion Papers 1283, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
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    5. Zhenzhen Fan & Juan M. Londono & Xiao Xiao, 2019. "US Equity Tail Risk and Currency Risk Premia," International Finance Discussion Papers 1253, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    6. Lukas Kremens & Ian Martin, 2019. "The Quanto Theory of Exchange Rates," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 109(3), pages 810-843, March.
    7. Londono, Juan M. & Zhou, Hao, 2017. "Variance risk premiums and the forward premium puzzle," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 124(2), pages 415-440.
    8. Zhu, Jiaqing, 2019. "External financial liabilities and real exchange rate jumps," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 202-220.
    9. Lee, Suzanne S. & Wang, Minho, 2019. "The impact of jumps on carry trade returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 131(2), pages 433-455.
    10. Louis Raffestin, 2016. "Foreign exchange investment rules and endogenous currency crashes," Working Papers hal-01277113, HAL.
    11. Jurek, Jakub W., 2014. "Crash-neutral currency carry trades," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 113(3), pages 325-347.
    12. Dahlquist, Magnus & Hasseltoft, Henrik, 2020. "Economic momentum and currency returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 136(1), pages 152-167.
    13. Thomas A. Maurer & Thuy-Duong Tô & Ngoc-Khanh Tran, 2019. "Pricing Risks Across Currency Denominations," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 65(11), pages 5308-5336, November.
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    20. Suh, Sangwon, 2019. "Unexploited currency carry trade profit opportunity," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 236-254.
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    22. Mueller, Philippe & Stathopoulos, Andreas & Vedolin, Andrea, 2017. "International correlation risk," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 126(2), pages 270-299.
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    25. Lee, Suzanne S. & Wang, Minho, 2020. "Tales of tails: Jumps in currency markets," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 48(C).

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