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Volatility dynamics for the S&P 500: Further evidence from non-affine, multi-factor jump diffusions

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  • Kaeck, Andreas
  • Alexander, Carol

Abstract

We apply Markov chain Monte Carlo methods to time series data on S&P 500 index returns, and to its option prices via a term structure of VIX indices, to estimate 18 different affine and non-affine stochastic volatility models with one or two variance factors, and where jumps are allowed in both the price and the instantaneous volatility. The in-sample fit to the VIX term structure shows that the second (stochastic long-term volatility) factor is required to fit the VIX term structure. Out-of-sample tests on the fit to individual option prices, as well as in-sample tests, show that the inclusion of jumps is less important than allowing for non-affine dynamics. The estimation and testing periods together cover more than 21 years of daily data.

Suggested Citation

  • Kaeck, Andreas & Alexander, Carol, 2012. "Volatility dynamics for the S&P 500: Further evidence from non-affine, multi-factor jump diffusions," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(11), pages 3110-3121.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:jbfina:v:36:y:2012:i:11:p:3110-3121
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jbankfin.2012.07.012
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. repec:eee:jbfina:v:83:y:2017:i:c:p:85-103 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Christoffersen, Peter & Feunou, Bruno & Jeon, Yoontae, 2015. "Option valuation with observable volatility and jump dynamics," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 61(S2), pages 101-120.
    3. Márcio Poletti Laurini & Roberto Baltieri Mauad & Fernando Antonio Lucena Aiube, 2016. "Multivariate Stochastic Volatility-Double Jump Model: an application for oil assets," Working Papers Series 415, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    4. Nicolas Langren'e & Geoffrey Lee & Zili Zhu, 2015. "Switching to non-affine stochastic volatility: A closed-form expansion for the Inverse Gamma model," Papers 1507.02847, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2016.
    5. Nicolas Langrené & Geoffrey Lee & Zili Zhu, 2016. "Switching To Nonaffine Stochastic Volatility: A Closed-Form Expansion For The Inverse Gamma Model," International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance (IJTAF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 19(05), pages 1-37, August.
    6. Shi, Guangping & Liu, Xiaoxing & Tang, Pan, 2016. "Pricing options under the non-affine stochastic volatility models: An extension of the high-order compact numerical scheme," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 16(C), pages 220-229.
    7. Hu, Jun & Kanniainen, Juho, 2015. "Asymptotic expansion of European options with mean-reverting stochastic volatility dynamics," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 14(C), pages 1-10.
    8. Kanniainen, Juho & Lin, Binghuan & Yang, Hanxue, 2014. "Estimating and using GARCH models with VIX data for option valuation," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 200-211.
    9. Calvet, Laurent E. & Fearnley, Marcus & Fisher, Adlai J. & Leippold, Markus, 2015. "What is beneath the surface? Option pricing with multifrequency latent states," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 187(2), pages 498-511.
    10. Xinyu WU & Hailin ZHOU, 2016. "GARCH DIFFUSION MODEL, iVIX, AND VOLATILITY RISK PREMIUM," ECONOMIC COMPUTATION AND ECONOMIC CYBERNETICS STUDIES AND RESEARCH, Faculty of Economic Cybernetics, Statistics and Informatics, vol. 50(1), pages 327-342.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Gibbs sampler; Instantaneous volatility dynamics; MCMC; Particle filter; S&P 500 options; VIX;

    JEL classification:

    • G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing
    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
    • C63 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computational Techniques

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