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Inferring Volatility Dynamics and Risk Premia from the S&P 500 and VIX markets

Author

Listed:
  • Chris Bardgett

    (University of Zurich and Swiss Finance Institute (SFI))

  • Elise Gourier

    (Queen Mary University of London)

  • Markus Leippold

    (University of Zurich and Swiss Finance Institute (SFI))

Abstract

This paper studies the information content of the S&P 500 and VIX markets on the volatility of the S&P 500 returns. We estimate a flexible affine model based on a joint time series of underlying indexes and option prices on both markets. An extensive model specification analysis reveals that jumps and a stochastic level of reversion for the variance help reproduce risk-neutral distributions as well as the term structure of volatility smiles and of variance risk premia. We find that the S&P 500 and VIX derivatives prices are consistent in times of market calm but contain conflicting information on the variance during market distress.

Suggested Citation

  • Chris Bardgett & Elise Gourier & Markus Leippold, 2016. "Inferring Volatility Dynamics and Risk Premia from the S&P 500 and VIX markets," Working Papers 780, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
    • Handle: RePEc:qmw:qmwecw:780
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    S&P 500 and VIX joint modeling; Volatility dynamics; Particle filter; Variance risk premium;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing
    • C58 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Financial Econometrics

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