Carry Trades and Global Foreign Exchange Volatility
We investigate the relation between global foreign exchange (FX) volatility risk and the cross-section of excess returns arising from popular strategies that borrow in low interest rate currencies and invest in high-interest rate currencies, so-called 'carry trades'. We find that high interest rate currencies are negatively related to innovations in global FX volatility and thus deliver low returns in times of unexpected high volatility, when low interest rate currencies provide a hedge by yielding positive returns. Our proxy for global FX volatility risk captures more than 90% of the cross-sectional excess returns in five carry trade portfolios. In turn, these results provide evidence that there is an economically meaningful risk-return relation in the FX market. Further analysis shows that liquidity risk also matters for expected FX returns, but to a lesser degree than volatility risk. Finally, exposure to our volatility risk proxy also performs well for pricing returns of other cross sections in foreign exchange, U.S. equity, and corporate bond markets.
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Volume (Year): 67 (2012)
Issue (Month): 2 (04)
|Contact details of provider:|| Web page: http://www.afajof.org/|
More information through EDIRC
|Order Information:||Web: http://www.afajof.org/membership/join.asp|
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Andrew Ang & Robert J. Hodrick & Yuhang Xing & Xiaoyan Zhang, 2004.
"The Cross-Section of Volatility and Expected Returns,"
NBER Working Papers
10852, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Andrew Ang & Robert J. Hodrick & Yuhang Xing & Xiaoyan Zhang, 2006. "The Cross-Section of Volatility and Expected Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 61(1), pages 259-299, 02.
- Anisha Ghosh & Christian Julliard, 2008.
"Can Rare Events Explain the Equity Premium Puzzle?,"
FMG Discussion Papers
dp610, Financial Markets Group.
- Christian Julliard & Anisha Ghosh, 2012. "Can Rare Events Explain the Equity Premium Puzzle?," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 25(10), pages 3037-3076.
- Christian Julliard & Anisha Ghosh, 2008. "Can rare events explain the equity premium puzzle?," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 4808, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
- Anisha Ghosh & Christian Julliard, 2008. "Can Rare Events Explain the Equity Premium Puzzle?," 2008 Meeting Papers 1090, Society for Economic Dynamics.
- Ghosh, Anisha & Julliard, Christian, 2012. "Can Rare Events Explain the Equity Premium Puzzle?," CEPR Discussion Papers 8899, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Tobias J. Moskowitz & Mark Grinblatt, .
"Do Industries Explain Momentum?,"
CRSP working papers
480, Center for Research in Security Prices, Graduate School of Business, University of Chicago.
- Farhi, Emmanuel & Fraiberger, Samuel P. & Gabaix, Xavier & Rancière, Romain & Verdelhan, Adrien, 2009.
"Crash Risk in Currency Markets,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
7322, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Emmanuel Farhi & Samuel Paul Fraiberger & Xavier Gabaix & Romain Ranciere & Adrien Verdelhan, 2009. "Crash Risk in Currency Markets," NBER Working Papers 15062, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Emmanuel Farhi & Samuel Fraiberger & Xavier Gabaix & Romain Ranciere & Adrien Verdelhan, 2015. "Crash Risk in Currency Markets," Working Paper 20948, Harvard University OpenScholar.
- Xavier Gabaix & Samuel Fraiberg & Romain Ranciere & Adrien Verdehlha & Emmanuel Farhi, 2010. "Crash Risk in Currency Market," 2010 Meeting Papers 640, Society for Economic Dynamics.
- Nick Roussanov & Adrien Verdelhan & Hanno Lustig, 2008.
"Common Risk Factors in Currency Markets,"
2008 Meeting Papers
711, Society for Economic Dynamics.
- Fama, Eugene F & French, Kenneth R, 1996. " Multifactor Explanations of Asset Pricing Anomalies," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(1), pages 55-84, March.
- Whitney Newey & Richard Smith, 2003.
"Higher order properties of GMM and generalised empirical likelihood estimators,"
CeMMAP working papers
CWP04/03, Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
- Whitney K. Newey & Richard J. Smith, 2004. "Higher Order Properties of Gmm and Generalized Empirical Likelihood Estimators," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 72(1), pages 219-255, 01.
- Yuichi Kitamura & Michael Stutzer, 1997. "An Information-Theoretic Alternative to Generalized Method of Moments Estimation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 65(4), pages 861-874, July.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:jfinan:v:67:y:2012:i:2:p:681-718. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Wiley-Blackwell Digital Licensing)or (Christopher F. Baum)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.