Can rare events explain the equity premium puzzle?
Probably not. First, allowing the probabilities attached to the states of the economy to differ from their sample frequencies, the Consumption-CAPM is still rejected by the data and requires a very high level of Relative Risk Aversion(RRA) in order to rationalize the stock market risk premium. This result holds for a variety of data sources and samples –including ones starting as far back as 1890. Second, we elicit the likelihood of observing an Equity Premium Puzzle (EPP) if the data were generated by the rare events probability distribution needed to rationalize the puzzle with a low level of RRA. We find that the historically observed EPP would be very unlikely to arise. Third, we find that the rare events explanation of the EPP signi…cantly worsens the ability of the Consumption-CAPM to explain the cross-section of asset returns. This is due to the fact that, by assigning higher probabilities to bad –economy wide –states in which consumption growth is low and all the assets in the cross-section tend to yield low returns, the rare events hypothesis reduces the cross-sectional dis-persion of consumption risk relative to the cross-sectional variation of average returns
|Date of creation:||Mar 2008|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: LSE Library Portugal Street London, WC2A 2HD, U.K.|
Phone: +44 (020) 7405 7686
Web page: http://www.lse.ac.uk/
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Farhi, Emmanuel & Gabaix, Xavier, 2015.
"Rare Disasters and Exchange Rates,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
10334, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Emmanuel Farhi & Xavier Gabaix, . "Rare Disasters and Exchange Rates," Working Paper 71001, Harvard University OpenScholar.
- Emmanuel Farhi, 2008. "Rare Disasters and Exchange Rates," 2008 Meeting Papers 47, Society for Economic Dynamics.
- Emmanuel Farhi & Xavier Gabaix, 2008. "Rare Disasters and Exchange Rates," NBER Working Papers 13805, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Mehra, Rajnish & Prescott, Edward C., 1985.
"The equity premium: A puzzle,"
Journal of Monetary Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 145-161, March.
- Kocherlakota, N., 1995.
"The Equity Premium: It's Still a Puzzle,"
95-05, University of Iowa, Department of Economics.
- Narayana R. Kocherlakota, 1995. "The equity premium: it's still a puzzle," Discussion Paper / Institute for Empirical Macroeconomics 102, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
- P. M. Robinson, 1991. "Consistent Nonparametric Entropy-Based Testing," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 58(3), pages 437-453.
- Epstein, Larry G & Zin, Stanley E, 1989. "Substitution, Risk Aversion, and the Temporal Behavior of Consumption and Asset Returns: A Theoretical Framework," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(4), pages 937-69, July.
- John Y. Campbell, 1995.
"Understanding Risk and Return,"
Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers
1711, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research.
- Barro, Robert, 2006.
"Rare Disasters and Asset Markets in the Twentieth Century,"
3208215, Harvard University Department of Economics.
- Robert J. Barro, 2006. "Rare Disasters and Asset Markets in the Twentieth Century," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 121(3), pages 823-866.
- Lucas, Robert E, Jr, 1978. "Asset Prices in an Exchange Economy," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(6), pages 1429-45, November.
- Xavier Gabaix, 2012.
"Variable Rare Disasters: An Exactly Solved Framework for Ten Puzzles in Macro-Finance,"
The Quarterly Journal of Economics,
Oxford University Press, vol. 127(2), pages 645-700.
- Xavier Gabaix, 2008. "Variable Rare Disasters: An Exactly Solved Framework for Ten Puzzles in Macro-Finance," NBER Working Papers 13724, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Xavier Gabaix, 2007. "Linearity-Generating Processes: A Modelling Tool Yielding Closed Forms for Asset Prices," NBER Working Papers 13430, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Mark Rubinstein, 1976. "The Valuation of Uncertain Income Streams and the Pricing of Options," Bell Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 7(2), pages 407-425, Autumn.
- Stutzer, Michael, 1996. " A Simple Nonparametric Approach to Derivative Security Valuation," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(5), pages 1633-52, December.
- Benoit Mandelbrot, 1963. "The Variation of Certain Speculative Prices," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 36, pages 394.
- Mankiw, N Gregory & Shapiro, Matthew D, 1986.
"Risk and Return: Consumption Beta versus Market Beta,"
The Review of Economics and Statistics,
MIT Press, vol. 68(3), pages 452-59, August.
- Matthew D. Shapiro & N. Gregory Mankiw, 1985. "Risk and Return: Consumption Beta Versus Market Beta," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 738, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
- Veronesi, Pietro, 2004. "The Peso problem hypothesis and stock market returns," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 707-725, January.
- Jose Ursua & Jon Steinsson & Emi Nakamura & Robert Barro, 2008.
"Crises and Recoveries in an Empirical Model of Consumption Disasters,"
2008 Meeting Papers
1089, Society for Economic Dynamics.
- Emi Nakamura & Jón Steinsson & Robert Barro & José Ursúa, 2013. "Crises and Recoveries in an Empirical Model of Consumption Disasters," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 5(3), pages 35-74, July.
- Emi Nakamura & Jón Steinsson & Robert Barro & José Ursúa, 2010. "Crises and Recoveries in an Empirical Model of Consumption Disasters," NBER Working Papers 15920, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Lopes, Paula & Michaelides, Alexander, 2007.
"Rare events and annuity market participation,"
Finance Research Letters,
Elsevier, vol. 4(2), pages 82-91, June.
- Saikkonen, Pentti & Ripatti, Antti, 1999.
"On the estimation of Euler equations in the presence of a potential regime shift,"
Research Discussion Papers
6/1999, Bank of Finland.
- Saikkonen, Pentti & Ripatti, Antti, 2000. "On the Estimation of Euler Equations in the Presence of a Potential Regime Shift," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 68(0), pages 92-121, Supplemen.
- Jonathan Lewellen & Stefan Nagel & Jay Shanken, 2006.
"A Skeptical Appraisal of Asset-Pricing Tests,"
NBER Working Papers
12360, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Yuichi Kitamura & Michael Stutzer, 1997. "An Information-Theoretic Alternative to Generalized Method of Moments Estimation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 65(4), pages 861-874, July.
- Naoto Kunitomo & Yukitoshi Matsushita, 2003. "On Finite Sample Distributions of the Empirical Likelihood Estimator and the GMM Estimator," CIRJE F-Series CIRJE-F-200, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo.
- Susanne M. Schennach, 2005. "Bayesian exponentially tilted empirical likelihood," Biometrika, Biometrika Trust, vol. 92(1), pages 31-46, March.
- David Backus & Mikhail Chernov & Ian Martin, 2009.
"Disasters implied by equity index options,"
NBER Working Papers
15240, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Backus, David & Chernov, Mikhail & Martin, Ian, 2009. "Disasters implied by equity index options," CEPR Discussion Papers 7416, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- David Backus & Mikhail Chernov & Ian Martin, 2009. "Disasters Implied by Equity Index Options," Working Papers 09-14, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business, Department of Economics.
- Fama, Eugene F & MacBeth, James D, 1973. "Risk, Return, and Equilibrium: Empirical Tests," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 607-36, May-June.
- Cochrane, John H, 1996. "A Cross-Sectional Test of an Investment-Based Asset Pricing Model," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 104(3), pages 572-621, June.
- Breeden, Douglas T., 1979. "An intertemporal asset pricing model with stochastic consumption and investment opportunities," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 7(3), pages 265-296, September.
- Martin Lettau & Sydney Ludvigson, 1999.
"Resurrecting the (C)CAPM: a cross-sectional test when risk premia are time-varying,"
93, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
- Martin Lettau & Sydney Ludvigson, 2001. "Resurrecting the (C)CAPM: A Cross-Sectional Test When Risk Premia Are Time-Varying," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 109(6), pages 1238-1287, December.
- Whitney K. Newey & Richard J. Smith, 2004.
"Higher Order Properties of Gmm and Generalized Empirical Likelihood Estimators,"
Econometric Society, vol. 72(1), pages 219-255, 01.
- Whitney Newey & Richard Smith, 2003. "Higher order properties of GMM and generalised empirical likelihood estimators," CeMMAP working papers CWP04/03, Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
- Copeland, Laurence & Zhu, Yanhui, 2007. "Rare Disasters and the Equity Premium in a Two-Country World," Cardiff Economics Working Papers E2007/6, Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Economics Section.
- Ang, Andrew & Chen, Joseph, 2002. "Asymmetric correlations of equity portfolios," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(3), pages 443-494, March.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ehl:lserod:4808. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (LSERO Manager)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.