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Stock-market crashes and depressions

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  • Barro, Robert J.
  • Ursúa, José F.

Abstract

Stock-market crashes are informative about the prospects for macroeconomic depressions. Long-term data for 30 countries reveal that, conditional on a crash, the probability of a minor depression is 31 percent and of a major depression is 10 percent. The largest depressions are particularly likely to be accompanied by crashes. We allow for flexible timing between crashes and depressions to compute the covariance between stock-returns and an asset-pricing factor, which depends on the decline of consumption during a depression. With a coefficient of relative risk aversion around 3.5, this covariance accounts for the observed average (levered) equity premium of 7 percent.

Suggested Citation

  • Barro, Robert J. & Ursúa, José F., 2017. "Stock-market crashes and depressions," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(3), pages 384-398.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:reecon:v:71:y:2017:i:3:p:384-398
    DOI: 10.1016/j.rie.2017.04.001
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    Cited by:

    1. Kenc, Turalay & Dibooglu, Sel, 2010. "The 2007-2009 financial crisis, global imbalances and capital flows: Implications for reform," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 3-21, March.
    2. Bohn, Henning, 2011. "Should public retirement plans be fully funded?," Journal of Pension Economics and Finance, Cambridge University Press, vol. 10(02), pages 195-219, April.
    3. repec:eee:dyncon:v:81:y:2017:i:c:p:187-215 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. William N. Goetzmann & Dasol Kim, 2017. "Negative Bubbles: What Happens After a Crash," NBER Working Papers 23830, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Charles, Amélie & Darné, Olivier, 2014. "Large shocks in the volatility of the Dow Jones Industrial Average index: 1928–2013," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 188-199.
    6. Atkeson, Andrew G. & Eisfeldt, Andrea L. & Weill, Pierre-Olivier, 2017. "Measuring the financial soundness of U.S. firms, 1926–2012," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(3), pages 613-635.
    7. Bee, Marco & Riccaboni, Massimo & Trapin, Luca, 2017. "An extreme value analysis of the last century crises across industries in the U.S. economy," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 65-78.
    8. Rıza Demirer & Rangan Gupta & Tahir Suleman & Mark E. Wohar, 2017. "Time-Varying Rare Disaster Risks, Oil Returns and Volatility," Working Papers 201762, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    9. Bordo, Michael D. & Haubrich, Joseph G., 2010. "Credit crises, money and contractions: An historical view," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(1), pages 1-18, January.
    10. Danielsson, Jon & Valenzuela, Marcela & Zer, Ilknur, 2016. "Learning from history: volatility and financial crises," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 66046, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    11. Rangan Gupta & Tahir Suleman & Mark E. Wohar, 2017. "The Role of Time-Varying Rare Disaster Risks in Predicting Bond Returns and Volatility," Working Papers 201770, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    12. Suzuki, Shiba, 2014. "An exploration of the effect of doubt during disasters on equity premiums," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 123(3), pages 270-273.
    13. Christian Pierdzioch & Rangan Gupta, 2017. "Uncertainty and Forecasts of U.S. Recessions," Working Papers 201732, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    14. Peiró, Amado, 2016. "Stock prices and macroeconomic factors: Some European evidence," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 287-294.
    15. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2015. "Financial and Sovereign Debt Crises: Some Lessons Learned and Those Forgotten," Journal of Banking and Financial Economics, University of Warsaw, Faculty of Management, vol. 2(4), pages 5-17, June.
    16. Bagliano, Fabio C. & Morana, Claudio, 2012. "The Great Recession: US dynamics and spillovers to the world economy," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 1-13.
    17. repec:sgm:jbfeuw:v:2:y:2015:i:4:p:13 is not listed on IDEAS
    18. Robert Barro, 2009. "EconomicDynamics Interviews Robert Barro on Rare Events," EconomicDynamics Newsletter, Review of Economic Dynamics, vol. 10(2), April.
    19. Döpke, Jörg & Fritsche, Ulrich & Pierdzioch, Christian, 2017. "Predicting recessions with boosted regression trees," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 745-759.
    20. Bluedorn, John C. & Decressin, Jörg & Terrones, Marco E., 2016. "Do asset price drops foreshadow recessions?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 518-526.
    21. Varma, Jayanth R., 2011. "Finance Teaching and Research after the Global Financial Crisis," IIMA Working Papers WP2011-03-02, Indian Institute of Management Ahmedabad, Research and Publication Department.
    22. Berkman, Henk & Jacobsen, Ben & Lee, John B., 2011. "Time-varying rare disaster risk and stock returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 101(2), pages 313-332, August.
    23. Chourdakis, Kyriakos & Dendramis, Yiannis & Tzavalis, Elias, 2014. "Are regime-shift sources of risk priced in the market?," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 151-170.
    24. Blau, Benjamin M., 2017. "Economic freedom and crashes in financial markets," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 33-46.
    25. Lu, Yang & Siemer, Michael, 2013. "Learning, Rare Disasters, and Asset Prices," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2013-85, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Rare disasters; Stock-market crashes; Flexible covariance analysis;

    JEL classification:

    • E01 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General - - - Measurement and Data on National Income and Product Accounts and Wealth; Environmental Accounts
    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • E23 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Production
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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