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Disaster Risk and Asset Returns: An International Perspective

In: NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2016

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  • Karen K. Lewis
  • Edith X. Liu

Abstract

Recent studies have shown that disaster risk can generate asset return moments similar to those observed in the U.S. data. However, these studies have ignored the cross-country asset pricing implications of the disaster risk model. This paper shows that standard U.S.-based disaster risk model assumptions found in the literature lead to counterfactual international asset pricing implications. Given consumption pricing moments, disaster risk from this literature cannot explain the range of equity premia and government bill rates. Furthermore, the independence of disasters presumed in some studies generates counterfactually low cross-country correlations in equity markets. Alternatively, if disasters are all shared, the model generates correlations that are excessively high. We show that common and idiosyncratic components of disaster risk are needed to explain the pattern in consumption and equity co-movements.
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Suggested Citation

  • Karen K. Lewis & Edith X. Liu, 2016. "Disaster Risk and Asset Returns: An International Perspective," NBER Chapters,in: NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2016 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberch:13827
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    Cited by:

    1. Rangan Gupta & Tahir Suleman & Mark E. Wohar, 2017. "The Role of Time-Varying Rare Disaster Risks in Predicting Bond Returns and Volatility," Working Papers 201770, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F3 - International Economics - - International Finance
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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