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On the Size Distribution of Macroeconomic Disasters*

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Author

Listed:
  • Robert J. Barro
  • Tao Jin

Abstract

The coefficient of relative risk aversion is a key parameter for analyses of behavior toward risk, but good estimates of this parameter do not exist. A promising place for reliable estimation is rare macroeconomic disasters, which have a major influence on the equity premium. The premium depends on the probability and size distribution of disasters, gauged by proportionate declines in per capita consumption or gross domestic product. Long-term national-accounts data for 36 countries provide a large sample of disasters of magnitude 10% or more. A power-law density provides a good fit to the size distribution, and the upper-tail exponent, α, is estimated to be around 4. A higher α signifies a thinner tail and, therefore, a lower equity premium, whereas a higher coefficient of relative risk aversion, γ, implies a higher premium. The premium is finite if α > γ. The observed premium of 5% generates an estimated γ close to 3, with a 95% confidence interval of 2 to 4. The results are robust to uncertainty about the values of the disaster probability and the equity premium, and can accommodate seemingly paradoxical situations in which the equity premium may appear to be infinite.
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)

Suggested Citation

  • Robert J. Barro & Tao Jin, 2011. "On the Size Distribution of Macroeconomic Disasters," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 79(5), pages 1567-1589, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:ecm:emetrp:v:79:y:2011:i:5:p:1567-1589
    DOI: ECTA8827
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    Replication

    This item has been replicated by:
  • Michal Brzezinski, 2015. "Relative Risk Aversion and Power‐Law Distribution of Macroeconomic Disasters," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 30(1), pages 170-175, January.

    • More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E20 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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    This item is featured on the following reading lists, Wikipedia, or ReplicationWiki pages:
    1. On the Size Distribution of Macroeconomic Disasters (ECTA 2011) in ReplicationWiki

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