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Rare Events and Long-Run Risks

Author

Listed:
  • Robert J. Barro
  • Tao Jin

Abstract

Rare events (RE) and long-run risks (LRR) are complementary approaches for characterizing macroeconomic variables and for understanding asset pricing. We estimate a model with RE and LRR using long-term consumption data for 42 economies. RE typically associates with major historical episodes, such as world wars and depressions and analogous country-specific events. LRR reflects gradual processes that influence long-run growth rates and volatility. A match between the model and observed average rates of return requires a coefficient of relative risk aversion, ?, around 6. Most of the explanation for the equity premium derives from RE, although LRR makes a moderate contribution.

Suggested Citation

  • Robert J. Barro & Tao Jin, 2016. "Rare Events and Long-Run Risks," Working Paper 115371, Harvard University OpenScholar.
    • Handle: RePEc:qsh:wpaper:115371
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    File URL: http://scholar.harvard.edu/tjin/node/115371
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    Cited by:

    1. Lars Hultkrantz, 2021. "Discounting in economic evaluation of healthcare interventions: what about the risk term?," The European Journal of Health Economics, Springer;Deutsche Gesellschaft für Gesundheitsökonomie (DGGÖ), vol. 22(3), pages 357-363, April.
    2. Fatouros, Nikos & Stengos, Thanasis, 2023. "Nuclear Energy, Economic Growth, and the Environment: Optimal policies in a model with endogenous technical change and environmental constraints," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 28(C).
    3. Horvath, Jaroslav, 2020. "Macroeconomic disasters and the equity premium puzzle: Are emerging countries riskier?," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 112(C).
    4. Robert J Barro & Jesús Fernández-Villaverde & Oren Levintal & Andrew Mollerus, 2022. "Safe Assets," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 132(646), pages 2075-2100.
      • Robert J. Barro, 2014. "Safe Assets," Working Papers 2014-28, Economic Research Institute, Bank of Korea.
      • Robert Barro & Jesus Fernandez-Villaverde & Oren Levintal & Andrew Mollerus, 2017. "Safe Assets," PIER Working Paper Archive 17-008, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania, revised 10 May 2017.
      • Robert J. Barro & Jesús Fernández-Villaverde & Oren Levintal & Andrew Mollerus, 2014. "Safe Assets," NBER Working Papers 20652, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
      • Fernández-Villaverde, Jesús & Barro, Robert & Levintal, Oren & Mollerus, Andrew, 2017. "Safe Assets," CEPR Discussion Papers 12043, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    5. Lorenzo Esposito & Giuseppe Mastromatteo, 2019. "Defaultnomics: Making Sense of the Barro-Ricardo Equivalence in a Financialized World," Economics Working Paper Archive wp_933, Levy Economics Institute.
    6. Robert Barro, 2023. "r Minus g," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 48, pages 1-17, April.
    7. Xu, Xiangyun & Li, Xing & Meng, Jie & Hu, Xueqi & Ge, Yingfan, 2024. "The impact of the tail risk of demand on corporate investment: Evidence from Chinese manufacturing firms," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).
    8. Sönksen, Jantje & Grammig, Joachim, 2021. "Empirical asset pricing with multi-period disaster risk: A simulation-based approach," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 222(1), pages 805-832.
    9. Gomes Orlando, 2024. "Economic Growth in the Age of Ubiquitous Threats: How Global Risks are Reshaping Growth Theory," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment Journal, De Gruyter, vol. 18(1), pages 1-15, January.
    10. David Alaminos & Ignacio Esteban & M. Belén Salas, 2023. "Neural networks for estimating Macro Asset Pricing model in football clubs," Intelligent Systems in Accounting, Finance and Management, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 30(2), pages 57-75, April.
    11. Andrew Y. Chen & Rebecca Wasyk & Fabian Winkler, 2017. "A Likelihood-Based Comparison of Macro Asset Pricing Models," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2017-024, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    12. Lanfear, Matthew G. & Lioui, Abraham & Siebert, Mark G., 2019. "Market anomalies and disaster risk: Evidence from extreme weather events," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 46(C).
    13. Guo, Meng & Luo, Danglun & Liu, Chen, 2025. "Opportunism in crisis: Big baths and COVID-19 disclosure," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 102(C).
    14. Rayenda Khresna Brahmana & Doddy Setiawan & Maria Kontesa, 2022. "The blame game: COVID-19 crisis and financial performance," SN Business & Economics, Springer, vol. 2(11), pages 1-20, November.
    15. Merella, Vincenzo & Satchell, Stephen E., 2022. "By force of confidence," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 150(C).
    16. Lee, Kiryoung & Kim, Minki & Lam, Sing-Sen, 2024. "Chinese consumption shocks and U.S. equity returns," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 96(PA).
    17. Baldi, Mauro Maria & Mammana, Cristiana & Michetti, Elisabetta, 2024. "The κ-logistic growth model. Qualitative and quantitative dynamics," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 225(C), pages 350-369.
    18. Barro, Robert J. & Ursúa, José F. & Weng, Joanna, 2022. "Macroeconomics of the Great Influenza Pandemic, 1918–1920," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(1), pages 21-29.
    19. Bruno Ćorić & Rangan Gupta, 2023. "Economic disasters and inequality: a note," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 56(5), pages 3527-3543, October.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E0 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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