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Rare Events and Long-Run Risks

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  • Robert J. Barro
  • Tao Jin

Abstract

Rare events (RE) and long-run risks (LRR) are complementary approaches for characterizing macroeconomic variables and for understanding asset pricing. We estimate a model with RE and LRR using long-term consumption data for 42 economies. RE typically associates with major historical episodes, such as world wars and depressions and analogous country-specific events. LRR reflects gradual processes that influence long-run growth rates and volatility. A match between the model and observed average rates of return requires a coefficient of relative risk aversion, ?, around 6. Most of the explanation for the equity premium derives from RE, although LRR makes a moderate contribution.

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  • Robert J. Barro & Tao Jin, 2016. "Rare Events and Long-Run Risks," Working Paper 115371, Harvard University OpenScholar.
  • Handle: RePEc:qsh:wpaper:115371
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    2. Robert J. Barro & Jesús Fernández-Villaverde & Oren Levintal & Andrew Mollerus, 2014. "Safe Assets," NBER Working Papers 20652, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
      • Barro, Robert J. & Fern�ndez-Villaverde, Jes�s & Levintal, Oren & Mollerus, Andrew, 2017. "Safe Assets," CEPR Discussion Papers 12043, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
      • Robert Barro & Jesus Fernandez-Villaverde & Oren Levintal & Andrew Mollerus, 2017. "Safe Assets," PIER Working Paper Archive 17-008, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania, revised 10 May 2017.
    3. Lanfear, Matthew G. & Lioui, Abraham & Siebert, Mark G., 2019. "Market anomalies and disaster risk: Evidence from extreme weather events," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 46(C).
    4. Horvath, Jaroslav, 2020. "Macroeconomic disasters and the equity premium puzzle: Are emerging countries riskier?," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 112(C).

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E0 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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