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Learning, Rare Disasters, and Asset Prices

  • Lu, Yang

    (Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.))

  • Siemer, Michael

    ()

    (Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.))

In this paper, we examine how learning about disaster risk affects asset pricing in an endowment economy. We extend the literature on rare disasters by allowing for two sources of uncertainty: (1) the lack of historical data results in unknown parameters for the disaster process, and (2) the disaster takes time to unfold and is not directly observable. The model generates time variation in the risk premium through Bayesian updating of agents' beliefs regarding the likelihood and severity of disaster realization. The model accounts for the level and volatility of U.S. equity returns and generates predictability in returns.

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Paper provided by Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) in its series Finance and Economics Discussion Series with number 2013-85.

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Length: 33 pages
Date of creation: 01 Nov 2013
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgfe:2013-85
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  1. Anisha Ghosh & Christian Julliard, 2008. "Can Rare Events Explain the Equity Premium Puzzle?," 2008 Meeting Papers 1090, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  2. David Backus & Mikhail Chernov & Ian Martin, 2009. "Disasters Implied by Equity Index Options," Working Papers 09-14, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business, Department of Economics.
  3. Jessica A. Wachter, 2013. "Can Time-Varying Risk of Rare Disasters Explain Aggregate Stock Market Volatility?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 68(3), pages 987-1035, 06.
  4. R. Mehra & E. Prescott, 2010. "The equity premium: a puzzle," Levine's Working Paper Archive 1401, David K. Levine.
  5. Farhi, Emmanuel & Gabaix, Xavier, 2015. "Rare Disasters and Exchange Rates," CEPR Discussion Papers 10334, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  6. Nengjiu Ju & Jianjun Miao, 2010. "Ambiguity, Learning, and Asset Returns," CEMA Working Papers 438, China Economics and Management Academy, Central University of Finance and Economics.
  7. Andrew B. Abel, 1998. "Risk Premia and Term Premia in General Equilibrium," NBER Working Papers 6683, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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  11. Tim Bollerslev & Viktor Todorov, 2009. "Tails, Fears and Risk Premia," CREATES Research Papers 2009-26, School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus.
  12. Rietz, Thomas A., 1988. "The equity risk premium a solution," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 117-131, July.
  13. Xavier Gabaix, 2012. "Variable Rare Disasters: An Exactly Solved Framework for Ten Puzzles in Macro-Finance," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 127(2), pages 645-700.
  14. Emmanuel Farhi & Samuel Paul Fraiberger & Xavier Gabaix & Romain Ranciere & Adrien Verdelhan, 2009. "Crash Risk in Currency Markets," NBER Working Papers 15062, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  15. Martin L. Weitzman, 2007. "Subjective Expectations and Asset-Return Puzzles," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 97(4), pages 1102-1130, September.
  16. Epstein, Larry G & Zin, Stanley E, 1989. "Substitution, Risk Aversion, and the Temporal Behavior of Consumption and Asset Returns: A Theoretical Framework," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(4), pages 937-69, July.
  17. Allan Timmermann, 1998. "Structural Breaks, Incomplete Information and Stock Prices," FMG Discussion Papers dp311, Financial Markets Group.
  18. Emmanuel Farhi, 2008. "Rare Disasters and Exchange Rates," 2008 Meeting Papers 47, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  19. hui chen & michal pakos, . "Rational Overreaction and Underreaction in Fixed Income and Equity Markets - The Role of Time-Varying Timing Premium," GSIA Working Papers 2007-E24, Carnegie Mellon University, Tepper School of Business.
  20. Barro, Robert, 2006. "Rare Disasters and Asset Markets in the Twentieth Century," Scholarly Articles 3208215, Harvard University Department of Economics.
  21. Anisha Ghosh & George M. Constantinides, 2010. "The Predictability of Returns with Regime Shifts in Consumption and Dividend Growth," NBER Working Papers 16183, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  22. Jun Liu, 2005. "An Equilibrium Model of Rare-Event Premia and Its Implication for Option Smirks," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 18(1), pages 131-164.
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