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The Predictability of Returns with Regime Shifts in Consumption and Dividend Growth

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  • George Constantinides

    (University Of Chicago)

Abstract

We model consumption and dividend growth as different processes across two latent regimes. We estimate the equilibrium model over 1930-2009 and show that the second regime is associated with recessions, market downturns, higher risk premia, lower consumption and dividend growth, higher volatility of returns and growth rates, and lower market-wide price-dividend ratio. The model performs better at in-sample forecasting and significantly better at out-of-sample prediction of the equity, size, and value premia and consumption and dividend growth rates and their variances than the price-dividend ratio and risk free rate do. The calibrated model replicates several features of the data.

Suggested Citation

  • George Constantinides, 2012. "The Predictability of Returns with Regime Shifts in Consumption and Dividend Growth," 2012 Meeting Papers 1197, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  • Handle: RePEc:red:sed012:1197
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    Cited by:

    1. Dai, Min & Wang, Hefei & Yang, Zhou, 2012. "Leverage management in a bull–bear switching market," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 36(10), pages 1585-1599.
    2. McMillan, David G., 2014. "Stock return, dividend growth and consumption growth predictability across markets and time: Implications for stock price movement," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 90-101.
    3. Argyropoulos, Efthymios & Tzavalis, Elias, 2015. "Real term structure forecasts of consumption growth," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 208-222.
    4. Chourdakis, Kyriakos & Dendramis, Yiannis & Tzavalis, Elias, 2014. "Are regime-shift sources of risk priced in the market?," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 151-170.
    5. Lu, Yang & Siemer, Michael, 2013. "Learning, Rare Disasters, and Asset Prices," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2013-85, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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