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Learning and Asset-Price Jumps

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  • Ravi Bansal
  • Ivan Shaliastovich

Abstract

We develop a general equilibrium model in which income and dividends are smooth, but asset prices are subject to large moves (jumps). A prominent feature of the model is that the optimal decision of investors to learn the unobserved state triggers large asset-price jumps. We show that the learning choice is critically determined by preference parameters and the conditional volatility of income process. An important prediction of the model is that income volatility predicts future jumps, while the variation in the level of income does not. We find that indeed in the data large moves in returns are predicted by consumption volatility, but not by the changes in the consumption level. We show that the model can quantitatively capture these novel features of the data.

Suggested Citation

  • Ravi Bansal & Ivan Shaliastovich, 2009. "Learning and Asset-Price Jumps," NBER Working Papers 14814, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:14814
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Hervé Crès & Tobias Markeprand & Mich Tvede, 2016. "Incomplete financial markets and jumps in asset prices," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 62(1), pages 201-219, June.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E0 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General
    • E4 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • G0 - Financial Economics - - General
    • G1 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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