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Short Run Bond Risk Premia

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  • Philippe Mueller

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  • Andrea Vedolin

    ()

  • Hao Zhou

    ()

Abstract

In the short-run, bond risk premia exhibit pronounced spikes around major economic and financial crises. In contrast, long-term bond risk premia feature cyclical swings. We empirically examine the predictability of the market variance risk premium—a proxy of economic uncertainty—for bond risk premia and we show the strong predictive power for the one month horizon that almost entirely disappears for horizons above one year. The variance risk premium is largely orthogonal to well-established bond return predictors—forward rates, jumps, yield curve factors, and macro variables. We rationalize our empirical findings in an equilibrium model of uncertainty about consumption and inflation which is coupled with recursive preferences. We show that the model can quantitatively explain the levels of bond and variance risk premia as well as the predictive power of the variance risk premium while jointly matching salient features of other asset prices.

Suggested Citation

  • Philippe Mueller & Andrea Vedolin & Hao Zhou, 2011. "Short Run Bond Risk Premia," FMG Discussion Papers dp686, Financial Markets Group.
  • Handle: RePEc:fmg:fmgdps:dp686
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    Cited by:

    1. Bruno Feunou & Jean-Sébastien Fontaine & Abderrahim Taamouti & Roméo Tédongap, 2014. "Risk Premium, Variance Premium, and the Maturity Structure of Uncertainty," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 18(1), pages 219-269.
    2. Bollerslev, Tim & Marrone, James & Xu, Lai & Zhou, Hao, 2014. "Stock Return Predictability and Variance Risk Premia: Statistical Inference and International Evidence," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 49(03), pages 633-661, June.
    3. Kees E. Bouwman & Elvira Sojli & Wing Wah Tham, 2012. "Aggregate Stock Market Illiquidity and Bond Risk Premia," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 12-140/IV/DSF46, Tinbergen Institute.
    4. Sarno, Lucio & Schneider, Paul & Wagner, Christian, 2016. "The economic value of predicting bond risk premia," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 247-267.
    5. Philippe Mueller & Andrea Vedolin & Yu-min Yen, 2012. "Bond Variance Risk Premia," FMG Discussion Papers dp699, Financial Markets Group.
    6. Grishchenko, Olesya V. & Song, Zhaogang & Zhou, Hao, 2015. "Term Structure of Interest Rates with Short-run and Long-run Risks," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2015-95, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    7. Turan G. Bali & Hao Zhou, 2011. "Risk, uncertainty, and expected returns," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2011-45, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    8. Aloosh, Arash, 2014. "Global Variance Risk Premium and Forex Return Predictability," MPRA Paper 59931, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Jianjun Miao & Bin Wei & Hao Zhou, 2012. "Ambiguity Aversion and Variance Premium," Boston University - Department of Economics - Working Papers Series WP2012-009, Boston University - Department of Economics.
    10. Dahlquist, Magnus & Hasseltoft, Henrik, 2013. "International Bond Risk Premia," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(1), pages 17-32.
    11. Arash, Aloosh, 2011. "Variance Risk Premium Differentials and Foreign Exchange Returns," MPRA Paper 40829, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 18 Aug 2012.

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