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Short Run Bond Risk Premia

  • Philippe Mueller

    ()

  • Andrea Vedolin

    ()

  • Hao Zhou

    ()

In the short-run, bond risk premia exhibit pronounced spikes around major economic and financial crises. In contrast, long-term bond risk premia feature cyclical swings. We empirically examine the predictability of the market variance risk premium—a proxy of economic uncertainty—for bond risk premia and we show the strong predictive power for the one month horizon that almost entirely disappears for horizons above one year. The variance risk premium is largely orthogonal to well-established bond return predictors—forward rates, jumps, yield curve factors, and macro variables. We rationalize our empirical findings in an equilibrium model of uncertainty about consumption and inflation which is coupled with recursive preferences. We show that the model can quantitatively explain the levels of bond and variance risk premia as well as the predictive power of the variance risk premium while jointly matching salient features of other asset prices.

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Paper provided by Financial Markets Group in its series FMG Discussion Papers with number dp686.

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Date of creation: Jun 2011
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Handle: RePEc:fmg:fmgdps:dp686
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.lse.ac.uk/fmg/

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  1. Taeyoung Doh, 2008. "Long Run Risks in the Term Structure of Interest Rates : Estimation," 2008 Meeting Papers 137, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  2. Lieven Baele, 2010. "The Determinants of Stock and Bond Return Comovements," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 23(6), pages 2374-2428, June.
  3. Geert Bekaert & Marie Hoerova & Marco Lo Duca, 2010. "Risk, Uncertainty and Monetary Policy," NBER Working Papers 16397, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Benigno Pierpaolo & Surico Paolo & Ricci Luca Antonio, 2011. "Unemployment and productivity in the long run: The role of macroeconomic volatility," wp.comunite 0085, Department of Communication, University of Teramo.
  5. Jean-Luc Vila & Dimitri Vayanos, 2009. "A Preferred-Habitat Model of the Term Structure of Interest Rates," FMG Discussion Papers dp641, Financial Markets Group.
  6. Nicholas Bloom, 2009. "The Impact of Uncertainty Shocks," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 77(3), pages 623-685, 05.
  7. Wei Xiong & Hongjun Yan, 2006. "Heterogeneous Expectations and Bond Markets," NBER Working Papers 12781, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Jesús Fernández-Villaverde & Juan Rubio-Ramírez, 2010. "Macroeconomics and Volatility: Data, Models, and Estimation," NBER Working Papers 16618, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Nicholas Bloom & Max Floetotto & Nir Jaimovich & Itay Saporta-Eksten & Stephen J. Terry, 2012. "Really Uncertain Business Cycles," NBER Working Papers 18245, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. Ralph S.J. Koijen & Hanno Lustig & Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh, 2010. "The Cross-Section and Time-Series of Stock and Bond Returns," NBER Working Papers 15688, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  11. Xavier Gabaix, 2012. "Variable Rare Disasters: An Exactly Solved Framework for Ten Puzzles in Macro-Finance," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 127(2), pages 645-700.
  12. Geert Bekaert & Eric Engstrom, 2009. "Asset Return Dynamics under Bad Environment Good Environment Fundamentals," NBER Working Papers 15222, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  13. Andrew Ang & Geert Bekaert, 2001. "Stock Return Predictability: Is it There?," NBER Working Papers 8207, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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