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Risk, Uncertainty, and Expected Returns

Author

Listed:
  • Turan G. Bali

    () (McDonough School of Business, Georgetown University)

  • Hao Zhou

    () (Division of Research and Statistics, Federal Reserve Board)

Abstract

A conditional asset pricing model with risk and uncertainty implies that the time-varying exposures of equity portfolios to the market and uncertainty factors carry positive risk premiums. The empirical results from the size, book-to-market, and industry portfolios as well as individual stocks indicate that the conditional covariances of equity portfolios (individual stocks) with market and uncertainty predict the time-series and cross-sectional variation in stock returns. We find that equity portfolios that are highly correlated with economic uncertainty proxied by the variance risk premium (VRP) carry a significant, annualized 6 to 8 percent premium relative to portfolios that are minimally correlated with VRP.

Suggested Citation

  • Turan G. Bali & Hao Zhou, 2013. "Risk, Uncertainty, and Expected Returns," Koç University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum Working Papers 1306, Koc University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum.
  • Handle: RePEc:koc:wpaper:1306
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Philippe Mueller & Andrea Vedolin & Hao Zhou, 2011. "Short Run Bond Risk Premia," FMG Discussion Papers dp686, Financial Markets Group.
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    4. Bollerslev, Tim & Marrone, James & Xu, Lai & Zhou, Hao, 2014. "Stock Return Predictability and Variance Risk Premia: Statistical Inference and International Evidence," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 49(03), pages 633-661, June.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Peter Christoffersen & Xuhui (Nick) Pan, 2014. "Equity Portfolio Management Using Option Price Information," CREATES Research Papers 2015-05, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    2. Peter Christoffersen & Xuhui (Nick) Pan, 2014. "Oil Volatility Risk and Expected Stock Returns," CREATES Research Papers 2015-06, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    3. Amélie Charles & Olivier Darné & Zakaria Moussa, 2014. "The sensitivity of Fama-French factors to economic uncertainty," Working Papers hal-01015702, HAL.
    4. Guo, Hui & Qiu, Buhui, 2014. "Options-implied variance and future stock returns," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 93-113.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Risk; Uncertainty; Expected Returns; ICAPM; Time-Series and Cross-Sectional Stock Returns; Variance Risk Premium; Conditional Asset Pricing Model.;

    JEL classification:

    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General

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