IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ifs/cemmap/32-12.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

An estimation of economic models with recursive preferences

Author

Listed:
  • Xiaohong Chen

    () (Institute for Fiscal Studies and Yale University)

  • Jack Favilukis

    (Institute for Fiscal Studies)

  • Sydney Ludvigson

    (Institute for Fiscal Studies)

Abstract

This paper presents estimates of key preference parameters of the Epstein and Zin (1989, 1991) and Weil (1989) (EZW) recursive utility model, evaluates the models ability to fit asset return data relative to other asset pricing models, and investigates the implications of such estimates for the unobservable aggregate wealth return. Our empirical results indicate that the estimated relative risk aversion parameter ranges from 17-60, with higher values for aggregate consumption than for stockholder consumption, while the estimated elasticity of intertemporal substitution is above one. In addition, the estimated model-implied aggregate wealth return is found to be weakly correlated with the CRSP value-weighted stock market return, suggesting that the return to human wealth is negatively correlated with the aggregate stock market return.

Suggested Citation

  • Xiaohong Chen & Jack Favilukis & Sydney Ludvigson, 2012. "An estimation of economic models with recursive preferences," CeMMAP working papers CWP32/12, Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
  • Handle: RePEc:ifs:cemmap:32/12
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.cemmap.ac.uk/wps/cwp321212.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Orazio P. Attanasio & James Banks & Sarah Tanner, 2002. "Asset Holding and Consumption Volatility," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 110(4), pages 771-792, August.
    2. Xiaohong Chen & Oliver Linton & Ingrid Van Keilegom, 2003. "Estimation of Semiparametric Models when the Criterion Function Is Not Smooth," Econometrica, Econometric Society, pages 1591-1608.
    3. Mariano M. Croce & Martin Lettau & Sydney C. Ludvigson, 2015. "Investor Information, Long-Run Risk, and the Term Structure of Equity," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 28(3), pages 706-742.
    4. Rui Castro & Claudio Campanale & Gian Luca Clementi, 2007. "Asset Pricing in a General Equilibrium Production Economy with Chew-Dekel Risk Preferences," 2007 Meeting Papers 503, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    5. Ravi Bansal & Robert Dittmar & Dana Kiku, 2009. "Cointegration and Consumption Risks in Asset Returns," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 22(3), pages 1343-1375, March.
    6. Francisco Gomes & Alexander Michaelides, 2005. "Optimal Life-Cycle Asset Allocation: Understanding the Empirical Evidence," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 60(2), pages 869-904, April.
    7. Orazio P. Attanasio & Guglielmo Weber, 1993. "Consumption Growth, the Interest Rate and Aggregation," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 60(3), pages 631-649.
    8. Hanno Lustig, "undated". "The Wealth-Consumption Ratio: A Litmus Test for Consumption-based Asset Pricing Models," UCLA Economics Online Papers 420, UCLA Department of Economics.
    9. Dirk Krueger & Felix Kubler, 2006. "Pareto-Improving Social Security Reform when Financial Markets are Incomplete!?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, pages 737-755.
    10. Ai, Chunrong & Chen, Xiaohong, 2007. "Estimation of possibly misspecified semiparametric conditional moment restriction models with different conditioning variables," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 141(1), pages 5-43, November.
    11. Fernando Restoy & Philippe Weil, 2011. "Approximate Equilibrium Asset Prices," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 15(1), pages 1-28.
    12. Chunrong Ai & Xiaohong Chen, 2003. "Efficient Estimation of Models with Conditional Moment Restrictions Containing Unknown Functions," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 71(6), pages 1795-1843, November.
    13. Annette Vissing-Jorgensen, 2002. "Limited Asset Market Participation and the Elasticity of Intertemporal Substitution," NBER Working Papers 8896, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. Weil, Philippe, 1989. "The equity premium puzzle and the risk-free rate puzzle," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pages 401-421, November.
    15. Riccardo Colacito & Mariano M. Croce, 2011. "Risks for the Long Run and the Real Exchange Rate," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 119(1), pages 153-181.
    16. Xavier Gabaix & David Laibson, 2002. "The 6D Bias and the Equity-Premium Puzzle," NBER Chapters,in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2001, Volume 16, pages 257-330 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    17. Hodrick, Robert J, 1992. "Dividend Yields and Expected Stock Returns: Alternative Procedures for Inference and Measurement," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 5(3), pages 357-386.
    18. Hanno Lustig & Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh, 2008. "The Returns on Human Capital: Good News on Wall Street is Bad News on Main Street," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 21(5), pages 2097-2137, September.
    19. Epstein, Larry G & Zin, Stanley E, 1989. "Substitution, Risk Aversion, and the Temporal Behavior of Consumption and Asset Returns: A Theoretical Framework," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(4), pages 937-969, July.
    20. Mariano M. Croce, 2006. "Welfare Costs, Long Run Consumption Risk, and a Production Economy," 2006 Meeting Papers 582, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    21. Hansen, Lars Peter & Heaton, John & Lee, Junghoon & Roussanov, Nikolai, 2007. "Intertemporal Substitution and Risk Aversion," Handbook of Econometrics,in: J.J. Heckman & E.E. Leamer (ed.), Handbook of Econometrics, edition 1, volume 6, chapter 61 Elsevier.
    22. Heaton, John, 1993. "The Interaction between Time-Nonseparable Preferences and Time Aggregation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(2), pages 353-385, March.
    23. Annette Vissing-Jorgensen, 2002. "Limited Asset Market Participation and the Elasticity of Intertemporal Substitution," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 110(4), pages 825-853, August.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. repec:red:issued:13-34 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Kim, Kun Ho, 2014. "Counter-cyclical risk aversion," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 384-401.
    3. James Staveley-O'Carroll & Olena M. Staveley-O'Carroll, 2016. "Impact of Pension System Structure on International Financial Capital Allocation," Working Papers 1601, College of the Holy Cross, Department of Economics.
    4. Favilukis, Jack, 2007. "Inequality, stock market participation, and the equity premium," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 24500, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    5. Peñaranda, Francisco & Sentana, Enrique, 2016. "Duality in mean-variance frontiers with conditioning information," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, pages 762-785.
    6. Michael Kremer, Tom Wilkening, 2010. "Protecting Antiquities: A Role for Long-Term Leases?," Department of Economics - Working Papers Series 1114, The University of Melbourne.
    7. Xiaohong Chen & Demian Pouzo, 2014. "Sieve Wald and QLR Inferences on Semi/nonparametric Conditional Moment Models," Papers 1411.1144, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2015.
    8. Jensen, Svenn & Traeger, Christian P., 2014. "Optimal climate change mitigation under long-term growth uncertainty: Stochastic integrated assessment and analytic findings," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 104-125.
    9. Christian Traeger, 2015. "Closed-Form Integrated Assessment and Uncertainty," CESifo Working Paper Series 5464, CESifo Group Munich.
    10. Larry G. Epstein & Emmanuel Farhi & Tomasz Strzalecki, 2014. "How Much Would You Pay to Resolve Long-Run Risk?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(9), pages 2680-2697, September.
    11. George M. Constantinides & Anisha Ghosh, 2011. "Asset Pricing Tests with Long-run Risks in Consumption Growth," Review of Asset Pricing Studies, Oxford University Press, pages 96-136.
    12. Tom Engsted & Thomas Q. Pedersen, 2016. "The predictive power of dividend yields for future infl?ation: Money illusion or rational causes?," CREATES Research Papers 2016-11, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    13. Alexandre Gohin & Yu Zheng, 2016. "Assessing the Decoupling of EU Agricultural Policy on Farm Decisions - A Dynamic Stochastic Attempt," FOODSECURE Working papers 45, LEI Wageningen UR.
    14. Berg Cui & Yoosoon Chang & Joon Park, 2017. "Evaluating Consumption CAPM under Heterogeneous Preferences," Caepr Working Papers 2017-013 Classification-G, Center for Applied Economics and Policy Research, Economics Department, Indiana University Bloomington.
    15. van Binsbergen, Jules H. & Fernández-Villaverde, Jesús & Koijen, Ralph S.J. & Rubio-Ramírez, Juan, 2012. "The term structure of interest rates in a DSGE model with recursive preferences," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(7), pages 634-648.
    16. Chen, Xiaohong & Liao, Zhipeng, 2015. "Sieve semiparametric two-step GMM under weak dependence," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 189(1), pages 163-186.
    17. repec:eee:eecrev:v:95:y:2017:i:c:p:1-22 is not listed on IDEAS
    18. Xiaohong Chen & Demian Pouzo, 2013. "Sieve Wald and QLR Inferences on Semi/nonparametric Conditional Moment Models," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1897R, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, revised Apr 2014.
    19. Jeong, Daehee & Kim, Hwagyun & Park, Joon Y., 2015. "Does ambiguity matter? Estimating asset pricing models with a multiple-priors recursive utility," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 115(2), pages 361-382.
    20. Schneider, Maik T. & Traeger, Christian P. & Winkler, Ralph, 2012. "Trading off generations: Equity, discounting, and climate change," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 56(8), pages 1621-1644.
    21. Xiaohong Chen & Demian Pouzo, 2014. "Sieve Wald and QLR Inferences on Semi/nonparametric Conditional Moment Models," CeMMAP working papers CWP38/14, Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    22. Lee, Ji Hyung & Phillips, Peter C.B., 2016. "Asset pricing with financial bubble risk," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(PB), pages 590-622.
    23. Ludvigson, Sydney C., 2013. "Advances in Consumption-Based Asset Pricing: Empirical Tests," Handbook of the Economics of Finance, Elsevier.
    24. Xiaohong Chen & Demian Pouzo, 2013. "Sieve Wald and QLR Inferences on Semi/nonparametric Conditional Moment Models," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1897RR, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, revised Nov 2014.
    25. Yum K. Kwan & Jinyue Dong, 2014. "Stock Price Dynamics of China: What Do the Asset Markets Tell Us About the Chinese Utility Function?," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 50(03), pages 77-108, May.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ifs:cemmap:32/12. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Emma Hyman). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/cmifsuk.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.