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Cointegration and Consumption Risks in Asset Returns

  • Ravi Bansal
  • Robert Dittmar
  • Dana Kiku

We argue that the cointegrating relation between dividends and consumption, a measure of long-run consumption risks, is a key determinant of risk premia at all investment horizons. As the investment horizon increases, transitory risks disappear, and the asset's beta is dominated by long-run consumption risks. We show that the return betas, derived from the cointegration-based VAR (EC-VAR) model, successfully account for the cross-sectional variation in equity returns at both short and long horizons; however, this is not the case when the cointegrating restriction is ignored. Our evidence highlights the importance of cointegration-based long-run consumption risks for financial markets. The Author 2007. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of The Society for Financial Studies. All rights reserved. For permissions, please email:, Oxford University Press.

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Article provided by Society for Financial Studies in its journal The Review of Financial Studies.

Volume (Year): 22 (2009)
Issue (Month): 3 (March)
Pages: 1343-1375

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Handle: RePEc:oup:rfinst:v:22:y:2009:i:3:p:1343-1375
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  1. Lucas, Robert E, Jr, 1978. "Asset Prices in an Exchange Economy," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(6), pages 1429-45, November.
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