IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Login to save this article or follow this journal

Return decomposition and the Intertemporal CAPM

  • Maio, Paulo
Registered author(s):

    The Intertemporal CAPM (ICAPM) from Merton (1973) has had a strong impact in empirical asset pricing leading to numerous multifactor models. This paper shows that the explanatory power of the ICAPM application by Campbell and Vuolteenaho (2004) relies critically on the computation of Dimson (1979) covariances (betas). If one employs the standard factor covariances (excluding lagged factors), the two-factor ICAPM has virtually no explanatory power for the average returns of the 25 size/book-to-market portfolios. More specifically, it is the covariance with the lagged innovation in one of the state variables (the value spread) that drives the explanatory power of the model. These results are inconsistent with the central economic intuition from the ICAPM. By specifying a more general version of the ICAPM, the fit of the model improves relative to the Campbell and Vuolteenaho (2004) model.

    If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S037842661300352X
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.

    Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Banking & Finance.

    Volume (Year): 37 (2013)
    Issue (Month): 12 ()
    Pages: 4958-4972

    as
    in new window

    Handle: RePEc:eee:jbfina:v:37:y:2013:i:12:p:4958-4972
    Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jbf

    References listed on IDEAS
    Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

    as in new window
    1. Campbell, John, 1996. "Understanding Risk and Return," Scholarly Articles 3153293, Harvard University Department of Economics.
    2. Robert J. Shiller & John Y. Campbell, 1986. "The Dividend-Price Ratio and Expectations of Future Dividends and Discount Factors," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 812, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    3. Jegadeesh, Narasimhan & Titman, Sheridan, 1993. " Returns to Buying Winners and Selling Losers: Implications for Stock Market Efficiency," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(1), pages 65-91, March.
    4. Newey, Whitney & West, Kenneth, 2014. "A simple, positive semi-definite, heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation consistent covariance matrix," Applied Econometrics, Publishing House "SINERGIA PRESS", vol. 33(1), pages 125-132.
    5. Jakub W. Jurek & Luis M. Viceira, 2006. "Optimal Value and Growth Tilts in Long-Horizon Portfolios," NBER Working Papers 12017, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Andrew W. Lo & Craig A. MacKinlay, . "An Econometric Analysis of Nonsyschronous-Trading," Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers 19-89, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research.
    7. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 1989. "Business conditions and expected returns on stocks and bonds," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 23-49, November.
    8. John Y. Campbell & Yeung Lewis Chan & Luis M. Viceira, 2001. "A Multivariate Model of Strategic Asset Allocation," NBER Working Papers 8566, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Ralitsa Petkova, 2006. "Do the Fama-French Factors Proxy for Innovations in Predictive Variables?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 61(2), pages 581-612, 04.
    10. Laura Xiaolei Liu & Lu Zhang, 2008. "Momentum Profits, Factor Pricing, and Macroeconomic Risk," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 21(6), pages 2417-2448, November.
    11. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 1988. "Dividend yields and expected stock returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 3-25, October.
    12. Hansen, Lars Peter, 1982. "Large Sample Properties of Generalized Method of Moments Estimators," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 1029-54, July.
    13. John Y. Campbell & Tuomo Vuolteenaho, 2003. "Bad Beta, Good Beta," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers 2016, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research.
    14. John Y. Campbell & Christopher Polk & Tuomo Vuolteenaho, 2010. "Growth or Glamour? Fundamentals and Systematic Risk in Stock Returns," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 23(1), pages 305-344, January.
    15. Arzu Ozoguz, 2009. "Good Times or Bad Times? Investors' Uncertainty and Stock Returns," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 22(11), pages 4377-4422, November.
    16. Michael W. Brandt & Pedro Santa-Clara, 2006. "Dynamic Portfolio Selection by Augmentingthe Asset Space," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 61(5), pages 2187-2217, October.
    17. William F. Sharpe, 1964. "Capital Asset Prices: A Theory Of Market Equilibrium Under Conditions Of Risk," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 19(3), pages 425-442, 09.
    18. Campbell, John Y, 1991. "A Variance Decomposition for Stock Returns," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 101(405), pages 157-79, March.
    19. Martin Lettau & Sydney Ludvigson, 2001. "Resurrecting the (C)CAPM: A Cross-Sectional Test When Risk Premia Are Time-Varying," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 109(6), pages 1238-1287, December.
    20. Botshekan, Mahmoud & Kraeussl, Roman & Lucas, Andre, 2012. "Cash Flow and Discount Rate Risk in Up and Down Markets: What Is Actually Priced?," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 47(06), pages 1279-1301, December.
    21. Andrew Ang & Robert J. Hodrick & Yuhang Xing & Xiaoyan Zhang, 2004. "The Cross-Section of Volatility and Expected Returns," NBER Working Papers 10852, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    22. Lewellen, Jonathan & Nagel, Stefan & Shanken, Jay, 2010. "A skeptical appraisal of asset pricing tests," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(2), pages 175-194, May.
    23. Guo, Hui, 2006. "Time-varying risk premia and the cross section of stock returns," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(7), pages 2087-2107, July.
    24. John Y. Campbell, 1992. "Intertemporal Asset Pricing Without Consumption Data," NBER Working Papers 3989, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    25. Merton, Robert C, 1973. "An Intertemporal Capital Asset Pricing Model," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 41(5), pages 867-87, September.
    26. Campbell, John & Viceira, Luis, 1999. "Consumption and Portfolio Decisions When Expected Returns are Time Varying," Scholarly Articles 3163266, Harvard University Department of Economics.
    27. John T. Scruggs, 1998. "Resolving the Puzzling Intertemporal Relation between the Market Risk Premium and Conditional Market Variance: A Two-Factor Approach," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 53(2), pages 575-603, 04.
    28. Liu, Naiping & Zhang, Lu, 2008. "Is the value spread a useful predictor of returns?," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 11(3), pages 199-227, August.
    29. John H. Cochrane, 2006. "The Dog That Did Not Bark: A Defense of Return Predictability," NBER Working Papers 12026, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    30. Motohiro Yogo, 2006. "A Consumption-Based Explanation of Expected Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 61(2), pages 539-580, 04.
    31. De Bondt, Werner F M & Thaler, Richard, 1985. " Does the Stock Market Overreact?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 40(3), pages 793-805, July.
    32. Epstein, Larry G & Zin, Stanley E, 1989. "Substitution, Risk Aversion, and the Temporal Behavior of Consumption and Asset Returns: A Theoretical Framework," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(4), pages 937-69, July.
    33. John Y. Campbell & Stefano Giglio & Christopher Polk & Robert Turley, 2012. "An Intertemporal CAPM with Stochastic Volatility," NBER Working Papers 18411, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    34. Bali, Turan G., 2008. "The intertemporal relation between expected returns and risk," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(1), pages 101-131, January.
    35. Dimson, Elroy, 1979. "Risk measurement when shares are subject to infrequent trading," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 7(2), pages 197-226, June.
    36. Fama, Eugene F & French, Kenneth R, 1996. " Multifactor Explanations of Asset Pricing Anomalies," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(1), pages 55-84, March.
    37. Petkova, Ralitsa & Zhang, Lu, 2005. "Is value riskier than growth?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(1), pages 187-202, October.
    38. Bruno Gerard & Guojun Wu, 2006. "How Important Is Intertemporal Risk for Asset Allocation?," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 79(4), pages 2203-2242, July.
    39. Ammer, John & Campbell, John, 1993. "What Moves the Stock and Bond Markets? A Variance Decomposition for Long-Term Asset Returns," Scholarly Articles 3382857, Harvard University Department of Economics.
    40. Paulo Maio, 2013. "Intertemporal CAPM with Conditioning Variables," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 59(1), pages 122-141, April.
    41. Michael W. Brandt & Pedro Santa-Clara & Rossen Valkanov, 2009. "Parametric Portfolio Policies: Exploiting Characteristics in the Cross-Section of Equity Returns," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 22(9), pages 3411-3447, September.
    42. Francesco Bianchi, 2010. "Rare Events, Financial Crises, and the Cross-Section of Asset Returns," Working Papers 10-40, Duke University, Department of Economics.
    43. Hahn, Jaehoon & Lee, Hangyong, 2006. "Yield Spreads as Alternative Risk Factors for Size and Book-to-Market," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 41(02), pages 245-269, June.
    44. Wayne E. Ferson & Campbell R. Harvey, 1999. "Conditioning Variables and the Cross Section of Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 54(4), pages 1325-1360, 08.
    45. Ravi Bansal & Robert F. Dittmar & Christian T. Lundblad, 2005. "Consumption, Dividends, and the Cross Section of Equity Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 60(4), pages 1639-1672, 08.
    46. Scholes, Myron & Williams, Joseph, 1977. "Estimating betas from nonsynchronous data," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(3), pages 309-327, December.
    47. Maio, Paulo & Santa-Clara, Pedro, 2012. "Multifactor models and their consistency with the ICAPM," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 106(3), pages 586-613.
    48. Hodrick, Robert J, 1992. "Dividend Yields and Expected Stock Returns: Alternative Procedures for Inference and Measurement," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 5(3), pages 357-86.
    49. Bali, Turan G. & Engle, Robert F., 2010. "The intertemporal capital asset pricing model with dynamic conditional correlations," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(4), pages 377-390, May.
    50. Michael J. Brennan & Ashley W. Wang & Yihong Xia, 2004. "Estimation and Test of a Simple Model of Intertemporal Capital Asset Pricing," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 59(4), pages 1743-1776, 08.
    51. Campbell, John Y. & Giglio, Stefano & Polk, Christopher, 2013. "Hard Times," Scholarly Articles 12172786, Harvard University Department of Economics.
    52. Abhyankar, Abhay & Gonzalez, Angelica, 2009. "News and the cross-section of expected corporate bond returns," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(6), pages 996-1004, June.
    53. Long Chen & Xinlei Zhao, 2009. "Return Decomposition," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 22(12), pages 5213-5249, December.
    54. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 1993. "Common risk factors in the returns on stocks and bonds," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 3-56, February.
    55. Da, Zhi & Warachka, Mitchell Craig, 2009. "Cashflow risk, systematic earnings revisions, and the cross-section of stock returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(3), pages 448-468, December.
    56. Epstein, Larry G & Zin, Stanley E, 1991. "Substitution, Risk Aversion, and the Temporal Behavior of Consumption and Asset Returns: An Empirical Analysis," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 99(2), pages 263-86, April.
    57. Zhi Da, 2009. "Cash Flow, Consumption Risk, and the Cross-section of Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 64(2), pages 923-956, 04.
    58. Paulo Maio, 2013. "The "Fed Model" and the Predictability of Stock Returns," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 17(4), pages 1489-1533.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

    When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jbfina:v:37:y:2013:i:12:p:4958-4972. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Zhang, Lei)

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

    If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.