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News and the cross-section of expected corporate bond returns

  • Abhyankar, Abhay
  • Gonzalez, Angelica
Registered author(s):

    We study the cross-section of expected corporate bond returns using an inter-temporal CAPM (ICAPM) with three-factors: innovations in future excess bond returns, future real interest rates and future expected inflation. Our test assets are a broad range of corporate bond market index portfolios. We find that two factors - innovations about future inflation and innovations about future real interest rates - explain the cross-section of expected corporate bond returns in our sample. Our model provides an alternative to the ad hoc risk factor models used, for example, in evaluating the performance of bond mutual funds.

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    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0378-4266(08)00262-8
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    Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Banking & Finance.

    Volume (Year): 33 (2009)
    Issue (Month): 6 (June)
    Pages: 996-1004

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    Handle: RePEc:eee:jbfina:v:33:y:2009:i:6:p:996-1004
    Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jbf

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    1. Campbell, J.Y. & Ammer, J., 1991. "What Moves The Stock And Bond Markets? A Variance Decomposition For Long- Term Asset Returns," Papers 127, Princeton, Department of Economics - Financial Research Center.
    2. Ravi Jagannathan & Zhenyu Wang, 1996. "The conditional CAPM and the cross-section of expected returns," Staff Report 208, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    3. Campbell, John & Vuolteenaho, Tuomo, 2004. "Bad Beta, Good Beta," Scholarly Articles 3122489, Harvard University Department of Economics.
    4. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 1993. "Common risk factors in the returns on stocks and bonds," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 3-56, February.
    5. Guo, Hui, 2006. "Time-varying risk premia and the cross section of stock returns," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(7), pages 2087-2107, July.
    6. Huij, Joop & Derwall, Jeroen, 2008. ""Hot Hands" in bond funds," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(4), pages 559-572, April.
    7. Markus K. Brunnermeier & Christian Julliard, 2006. "Money illusion and housing frenzies," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 4806, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    8. Campbell, John Y, 1993. "Intertemporal Asset Pricing without Consumption Data," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(3), pages 487-512, June.
    9. Wayne Ferson & Tyler R. Henry & Darren J. Kisgen, 2006. "Evaluating Government Bond Fund Performance with Stochastic Discount Factors," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 19(2), pages 423-455.
    10. Epstein, Larry G & Zin, Stanley E, 1989. "Substitution, Risk Aversion, and the Temporal Behavior of Consumption and Asset Returns: A Theoretical Framework," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(4), pages 937-69, July.
    11. Baker, Malcolm & Greenwood, Robin & Wurgler, Jeffrey, 2003. "The maturity of debt issues and predictable variation in bond returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(2), pages 261-291, November.
    12. Gebhardt, William R. & Hvidkjaer, Soeren & Swaminathan, Bhaskaran, 2005. "The cross-section of expected corporate bond returns: Betas or characteristics?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(1), pages 85-114, January.
    13. de Goeij, P. C. & Marquering, W., 2006. "Macroeconomic announcements and asymmetric volatility in bond returns," Other publications TiSEM bc4389f3-bad2-4e5b-b996-3, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    14. Chang, Eric C. & Huang, Roger D., 1990. "Time-Varying Return and Risk in the Corporate Bond Market," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 25(03), pages 323-340, September.
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