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Are good-news firms riskier than bad-news firms?

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  • Min, Byoung-Kyu
  • Kim, Tong Suk

Abstract

This paper examines the relative risk of good-news firms, i.e., those with high standardized unexpected earnings (SUE), and bad-news (low SUE) firms using a stochastic discount factor approach. We find that a stochastic discount factor constructed from a set of basis assets helps explain post-earnings-announcement drift (PEAD). The risk exposures on the pricing kernel increase monotonically from the lowest to highest SUE sorted portfolios. Specifically, good-news firms always have higher risk exposures than bad-news firms in both 10 SUE sorted portfolios and 25 size and SUE sorted portfolios. However, the estimated expected risk premium is too small to explain the observed magnitude of returns on the PEAD strategy. Our risk adjustment can explain only about one-fourth of the total magnitude of the average realized return to the PEAD strategy. As a result, the average risk-adjusted returns of earnings momentum strategies are mostly positive and significant. Overall, our results support the view that at least some portion of the returns to the earnings momentum strategies examined represent compensation for bearing increased risk.

Suggested Citation

  • Min, Byoung-Kyu & Kim, Tong Suk, 2012. "Are good-news firms riskier than bad-news firms?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(5), pages 1528-1535.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:jbfina:v:36:y:2012:i:5:p:1528-1535
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jbankfin.2011.12.017
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    Cited by:

    1. Jang, Woan-Yuh & Lee, Jie-Haun & Hu, Hsueh-Chin, 2016. "Halo, horn, or dark horse biases: Corporate reputation and the earnings announcement puzzle," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(PA), pages 272-289.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Post-earnings-announcement drift; Stochastic discount factor; Market efficiency;

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading

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