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Inflation risk and international asset returns

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  • Moerman, Gerard A.
  • van Dijk, Mathijs A.

Abstract

We show that inflation risk is priced in international asset returns. We analyze inflation risk in a framework that encompasses the International Capital Asset Pricing Model (ICAPM) of Adler and Dumas (1983). In contrast to the extant empirical literature on the ICAPM, we relax the assumption that inflation rates are constant. We estimate and test a conditional version of the model for the G5 countries (France, Germany, Japan, the UK, and the US) over the period 1975-1998 and find evidence of statistically and economically significant prices of inflation risk (in addition to priced nominal exchange rate risk). Our results imply a rejection of the restrictions imposed by the ICAPM. In an extension of our analysis to 2003, we show that even after the termination of nominal exchange rate fluctuations in the euro area in 1999, differences in inflation rates across countries entail non-trivial real exchange rate risk premia.

Suggested Citation

  • Moerman, Gerard A. & van Dijk, Mathijs A., 2010. "Inflation risk and international asset returns," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 840-855, April.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:jbfina:v:34:y:2010:i:4:p:840-855
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    11. Kodongo, Odongo & Ojah, Kalu, 2014. "The conditional pricing of currency and inflation risks in Africa's equity markets," MPRA Paper 56100, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Chang, Kuang-Liang, 2017. "Does REIT index hedge inflation risk? New evidence from the tail quantile dependences of the Markov-switching GRG copula," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 56-67.
    13. Guo, Hui & Savickas, Robert, 2010. "Relation between time-series and cross-sectional effects of idiosyncratic variance on stock returns," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(7), pages 1637-1649, July.
    14. Min, Byoung-Kyu & Kim, Tong Suk, 2012. "Are good-news firms riskier than bad-news firms?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(5), pages 1528-1535.
    15. Keiber, Karl Ludwig & Samyschew, Helene, 2016. "The pricing of sentiment risk in European stock markets," Discussion Papers 384, European University Viadrina Frankfurt (Oder), Department of Business Administration and Economics.

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