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Euro Area Inflation Differentials

  • Angeloni Ignazio

    ()

    (Ministero dell’Economia e delle Finanze)

  • Ehrmann Michael

    ()

    (European Central Bank)

We build a stylised 12-country model of the euro area and use it to analyse how differences in national inflation and growth rates arise within the European Economic and Monetary Union (EMU). We find that the main source of differentials in the early years of the EMU have been aggregate demand shocks, followed by cost-push shocks; euro exchange rate shocks come third. Among the propagation mechanisms a key role is played by inflation persistence; for plausible parameter values even small changes in persistence can produce a dramatic increase in the differentials. Finally, we also find that a tight control of average area-wide inflation around a target tends to reduce the differentials as well.

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Article provided by De Gruyter in its journal The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics.

Volume (Year): 7 (2007)
Issue (Month): 1 (August)
Pages: 1-36

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Handle: RePEc:bpj:bejmac:v:7:y:2007:i:1:n:24
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  1. Ignazio Angeloni & Gunter Coenen & Frank Smets, 2003. "Persistence, The Transmission Mechanism And Robust Monetary Policy," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 50(5), pages 527-549, November.
  2. Ignazio Angeloni & Anil K. Kashyap & Benoit Mojon & Daniele Terlizzese, 2003. "Monetary Transmission in the Euro Area: Does the Interest Rate Channel Explain it All?," NBER Working Papers 9984, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Ehrmann, Michael & Fratzscher, Marcel, 2002. "Interdependence between the euro area and the US: what role for EMU?," Working Paper Series 0200, European Central Bank.
  4. Benigno, Pierpaolo & Lopez-Salido, J. David, 2006. "Inflation Persistence and Optimal Monetary Policy in the Euro Area," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 38(3), pages 587-614, April.
  5. Benigno, Pierpaolo, 2004. "Optimal monetary policy in a currency area," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(2), pages 293-320, July.
  6. Ehrmann, Michael & Fratzscher, Marcel, 2003. "Equal size, equal role? Interest rate interdependence between the Euro area and the United States," CFS Working Paper Series 2003/46, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
  7. Nicoletta Batini & Edward Nelson, 1999. "Optimal Horizons for Inflation Targeting," Computing in Economics and Finance 1999 1052, Society for Computational Economics.
  8. Nicoletta Batini & Paul Levine & Joseph Pearlman, 2004. "Indeterminacy with Inflation-Forecast-Based Rules in a Two-Bloc Model," School of Economics Discussion Papers 0204, School of Economics, University of Surrey.
  9. repec:cup:cbooks:9780521828642 is not listed on IDEAS
  10. Bayoumi, Tamim & Eichengreen, Barry, 1992. "Shocking Aspects of European Monetary Unification," CEPR Discussion Papers 643, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  11. Javier Andrés & Eva Ortega & Javier Vallés, 2003. "Market structure and inflation differentials in the European Monetary Union," Banco de Espa�a Working Papers 0301, Banco de Espa�a.
  12. Ignazio Angeloni & Anil K. Kashyap & Benoit Mojon & Daniele Terlizzese, 2003. "The Output Composition Puzzle: A Difference in the Monetary Transmission Mechanism in the Euro Area and U.S," NBER Working Papers 9985, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  13. Bergin, Paul R., 2003. "A model of relative national price levels under pricing to market," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 47(3), pages 569-586, June.
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