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Does REIT index hedge inflation risk? New evidence from the tail quantile dependences of the Markov-switching GRG copula

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  • Chang, Kuang-Liang

Abstract

This paper explores tail quantile dependences between the inflation rate and the real estate investment trust (REIT) return by utilizing the Markov-switching GRG copula. Empirical results show that the dependence between inflation rate and REIT return is mixed, implying that the inflation-hedging ability of REIT index is not fixed. The REIT index is not a hedge against inflation risk during the period of negative dependence; on the contrary, the REIT index has a partially inflation hedging ability during the period of positive dependence. Furthermore, the intensity for the dependence in non-extreme cases is different from that in very extreme cases.

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  • Chang, Kuang-Liang, 2017. "Does REIT index hedge inflation risk? New evidence from the tail quantile dependences of the Markov-switching GRG copula," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 56-67.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecofin:v:39:y:2017:i:c:p:56-67
    DOI: 10.1016/j.najef.2016.11.001
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    Cited by:

    1. Kuang-Liang Chang, 2021. "A New Dynamic Mixture Copula Mechanism to Examine the Nonlinear and Asymmetric Tail Dependence Between Stock and Exchange Rate Returns," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 58(4), pages 965-999, December.
    2. Spyros Papathanasiou & Dimitris Kenourgios & Drosos Koutsokostas & Georgios Pergeris, 2023. "Can treasury inflation-protected securities safeguard investors from outward risk spillovers? A portfolio hedging strategy through the prism of COVID-19," Journal of Asset Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 24(3), pages 198-211, May.
    3. Yu-Min Lian & Chia-Hsuan Li & Yi-Hsuan Wei, 2021. "Machine Learning and Time Series Models for VNQ Market Predictions," Journal of Applied Finance & Banking, SCIENPRESS Ltd, vol. 11(5), pages 1-2.
    4. Bouteska, Ahmed & Sharif, Taimur & Abedin, Mohammad Zoynul, 2023. "COVID-19 and stock returns: Evidence from the Markov switching dependence approach," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    5. Liu, Xiang-dong & Pan, Fei & Cai, Wen-li & Peng, Rui, 2020. "Correlation and risk measurement modeling: A Markov-switching mixed Clayton copula approach," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 197(C).
    6. Pierdzioch, Christian & Risse, Marian & Gupta, Rangan & Nyakabawo, Wendy, 2019. "On REIT returns and (un-)expected inflation: Empirical evidence based on Bayesian additive regression trees," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 160-169.
    7. Marfatia, Hardik A. & Gupta, Rangan & Cakan, Esin, 2017. "The international REIT’s time-varying response to the U.S. monetary policy and macroeconomic surprises," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 640-653.
    8. Leonardo Badea & Daniel Ştefan Armeanu & Iulian Panait & Ştefan Cristian Gherghina, 2019. "A Markov Regime Switching Approach towards Assessing Resilience of Romanian Collective Investment Undertakings," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(5), pages 1-24, March.
    9. Das, Mahamitra & Sarkar, Nityananda, 2017. "Re-investigating the anomalous relationship between inflation and equity REIT returns: A regime-switching approach," MPRA Paper 95135, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 05 Nov 2018.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Inflation rate; REIT return; Tail dependence; Inflation hedge ability; Markov-switching copula;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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