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Stock Market Reaction To Good And Bad Inflation News

Author

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  • Johan Knif
  • James Kolari
  • Seppo Pynnönen

Abstract

This article shows that differentiating between good and bad inflation news is important to understanding how inflation affects stock market returns. Summing positive and negative inflation shocks as in previous studies tends to wash out or mute the effects of inflation news on stock returns. More specifically, we find that, depending on the economic state, positive and negative inflation shocks can produce a variety of stock market reactions. We conclude that the effect of inflation on stock returns is conditional on whether investors perceive inflation shocks as good or bad news in different economic states.

Suggested Citation

  • Johan Knif & James Kolari & Seppo Pynnönen, 2008. "Stock Market Reaction To Good And Bad Inflation News," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 31(2), pages 141-166, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:jfnres:v:31:y:2008:i:2:p:141-166
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1475-6803.2008.00235.x
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    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1475-6803.2008.00235.x
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Alagidede, Paul & Panagiotidis, Theodore, 2010. "Can common stocks provide a hedge against inflation? Evidence from African countries," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 91-100, August.
    2. Alenka Kavkler & Mejra Festić, 2011. "Modelling Stock Exchange Index Returns in Different GDP Growth Regimes," Prague Economic Papers, University of Economics, Prague, vol. 2011(1), pages 3-22.
    3. María de la O & Francisco JAREÑO, Francisco & SKINNER, Frank S., 2017. "The Financial Crisis Impact: An Industry Level Analysis Of The Us Stock Market González," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 17(2), pages 61-74.
    4. Arnold, Stephan & Auer, Benjamin R., 2015. "What do scientists know about inflation hedging?," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 187-214.
    5. Antonio Díaz & Francisco Jareño, 2013. "Inflation news and stock returns: market direction and flow-through ability," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 44(2), pages 775-798, April.
    6. Smales, Lee A., 2015. "Time-variation in the impact of news sentiment," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 40-50.
    7. Chang, Kuang-Liang, 2017. "Does REIT index hedge inflation risk? New evidence from the tail quantile dependences of the Markov-switching GRG copula," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 56-67.
    8. Demirer, Rıza & Jategaonkar, Shrikant P., 2013. "The conditional relation between dispersion and return," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 125-134.
    9. Laivi Laidroo & Zana Grigaliuniene, 2012. "Testing for asymmetries in price reactions to quarterly earnings announcements on Tallinn, Riga and Vilnius Stock Exchanges during 2000-2009," Baltic Journal of Economics, Baltic International Centre for Economic Policy Studies, vol. 12(1), pages 61-86, July.
    10. Bampinas, Georgios & Panagiotidis, Theodore, 2016. "Hedging inflation with individual US stocks: A long-run portfolio analysis," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 374-392.
    11. Radman Peša, Anita & Brajković, Ana, 2015. "Testing The ‘Black Swan Effect’ on Croatian Stock Market Between 2000 and 2013," MPRA Paper 69223, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2015.
    12. Atilla Cifter, 2015. "Stock Returns, Inflation, and Real Activity in Developing Countries: A Markov-Switching Approach," Panoeconomicus, Savez ekonomista Vojvodine, Novi Sad, Serbia, vol. 62(1), pages 55-76, March.
    13. Salisu, Afees A. & Ndako, Umar B. & Oloko, Tirimisiyu F., 2019. "Assessing the inflation hedging of gold and palladium in OECD countries," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 357-377.
    14. Anita Radman Peša & Mejra Festić, 2012. "Testing the "EU Announcement Effect" on Stock Market Indices and Macroeconomic Variables in Croatia Between 2000 and 2010," Prague Economic Papers, University of Economics, Prague, vol. 2012(4), pages 450-469.
    15. Díaz, Antonio & Jareño, Francisco, 2009. "Explanatory factors of the inflation news impact on stock returns by sector: The Spanish case," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 349-368, September.

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