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Price inflation and stock returns

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  • Oxman, Jeffrey

Abstract

This letter demonstrates that price inflation and stock returns display differing relationships depending on the measure of inflation used. The regularity that price inflation and stock returns are negatively related in post-World War II depends on the model specification.

Suggested Citation

  • Oxman, Jeffrey, 2012. "Price inflation and stock returns," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 116(3), pages 385-388.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecolet:v:116:y:2012:i:3:p:385-388
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2012.04.024
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. John Y. Campbell & Tuomo Vuolteenaho, 2004. "Inflation Illusion and Stock Prices," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(2), pages 19-23, May.
    2. Martin Feldstein, 1983. "Inflation, Tax Rules, and the Stock Market," NBER Chapters,in: Inflation, Tax Rules, and Capital Formation, pages 199-220 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Michael Boskin, 2005. "Causes and Consequences of Bias in the Consumer Price Index as a Measure of the Cost of Living," Atlantic Economic Journal, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 33(1), pages 1-13, March.
    4. Brandt, Michael W. & Wang, Kevin Q., 2003. "Time-varying risk aversion and unexpected inflation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(7), pages 1457-1498, October.
    5. Martin Feldstein, 1983. "Inflation and the Stock Market," NBER Chapters,in: Inflation, Tax Rules, and Capital Formation, pages 186-198 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Fama, Eugene F, 1981. "Stock Returns, Real Activity, Inflation, and Money," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(4), pages 545-565, September.
    7. Randolph B. Cohen & Christopher Polk & Tuomo Vuolteenaho, 2005. "Money Illusion in the Stock Market: The Modigliani-Cohn Hypothesis," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 120(2), pages 639-668.
    8. Hess, Patrick J & Lee, Bong-Soo, 1999. "Stock Returns and Inflation with Supply and Demand Disturbances," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 12(5), pages 1203-1218.
    9. Geske, Robert & Roll, Richard, 1983. " The Fiscal and Monetary Linkage between Stock Returns and Inflation," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 38(1), pages 1-33, March.
    10. Lee, Bong Soo, 2010. "Stock returns and inflation revisited: An evaluation of the inflation illusion hypothesis," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(6), pages 1257-1273, June.
    11. Michael J. Boskin, 1998. "Consumer Prices, the Consumer Price Index, and the Cost of Living," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 12(1), pages 3-26, Winter.
    12. Boskin, Michael J, et al, 1997. "The CPI Commission: Findings and Recommendations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 87(2), pages 78-83, May.
    13. Lee, Bong-Soo, 2003. "Asset Returns and Inflation in Response to Supply, Monetary, and Fiscal Disturbances," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 21(3), pages 207-231, November.
    14. Fama, Eugene F, 1983. "Stock Returns, Real Activity, Inflation, and Money: Reply," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 73(3), pages 471-472, June.
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    Cited by:

    1. Acker, Daniella & Duck, Nigel W., 2013. "Inflation illusion and the US dividend yield: Some further evidence," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 235-254.
    2. Tiwari, Aviral Kumar & Dar, Arif Billah & Bhanja, Niyati & Arouri, Mohamed & Teulon, Frédéric, 2015. "Stock returns and inflation in Pakistan," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 23-31.
    3. Atilla Cifter, 2015. "Stock Returns, Inflation, and Real Activity in Developing Countries: A Markov-Switching Approach," Panoeconomicus, Savez ekonomista Vojvodine, Novi Sad, Serbia, vol. 62(1), pages 55-76, March.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Inflation; Equity premium; Dividend yield;

    JEL classification:

    • G1 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets

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