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Are Stock Returns an Inflation Hedge for the UK? Evidence from a Wavelet Analysis Using Over Three Centuries of Data

Listed author(s):
  • Aviral Kumar Tiwari

    ()

    (Center for Energy and Sustainable Development (CESD), Montpellier Business School, Montpellier, France)

  • Juncal Cunado

    ()

    (University of Navarra, School of Economics, Edificio Amigos, Spain)

  • Rangan Gupta

    ()

    (University of Pretoria, Department of Economics, Pretoria, South Africa)

  • Mark E. Wohar

    ()

    (College of Business Administration, University of Nebraska at Omaha, Omaha, USA and School of Business and Economics, Loughborough University, Leicestershire, UK)

This paper analyzes the relationship between stock returns and the inflation rates for the UK over a long time period (February 1790 to February 2017) and at different frequencies, by employing a wavelet analysis. We also compare the results for the UK economy with those for the US and two developing countries (India and South Africa). Overall, our results tend to suggest that, while the relationship between stock returns and inflation rates varies across frequencies and time periods, there is no evidence of stock returns acting as an inflation hedge, irrespective of whether we look at the two developed or the two developing markets in our sample.

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File URL: http://www.up.ac.za/media/shared/61/WP/wp_2017_35.zp118128.pdf
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Paper provided by University of Pretoria, Department of Economics in its series Working Papers with number 201735.

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Length: 30 pages
Date of creation: May 2017
Handle: RePEc:pre:wpaper:201735
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  1. repec:ipg:wpaper:2014-108 is not listed on IDEAS
  2. Kaul, Gautam, 1987. "Stock returns and inflation : The role of the monetary sector," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 253-276, June.
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  5. Martin Feldstein, 1983. "Inflation and the Stock Market," NBER Chapters,in: Inflation, Tax Rules, and Capital Formation, pages 186-198 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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  11. Geske, Robert & Roll, Richard, 1983. " The Fiscal and Monetary Linkage between Stock Returns and Inflation," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 38(1), pages 1-33, March.
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  13. Barsky, Robert B., 1987. "The Fisher hypothesis and the forecastability and persistence of inflation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 3-24, January.
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  15. Niyati Bhanja & Arif Billah Dar & Aviral Kumar Tiwari & Olaolu Richard Olayeni, 2012. "Are Stock Prices Hedge Against Inflation? A Revisit over Time and Frequencies in India," Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, CEJEME, vol. 4(3), pages 199-213, September.
  16. Tiwari, Aviral Kumar, 2013. "Oil prices and the macroeconomy reconsideration for Germany: Using continuous wavelet," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 636-642.
  17. Beatrice Simo-Kengne & Stephen Miller & Rangan Gupta & Goodness Aye, 2015. "Time-Varying Effects of Housing and Stock Returns on U.S. Consumption," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 50(3), pages 339-354, April.
  18. James R. Lothian & Cornelia H.. McCarthy, 2001. "Equity Returns and Inflation: The Puzzlingly Long Lags," International Finance 0107003, EconWPA.
  19. Ludwig, Alexander & Sløk, Torsten, 2004. "The relationship between stock prices, house prices and consumption in OECD," Sonderforschungsbereich 504 Publications 04-12, Sonderforschungsbereich 504, Universität Mannheim;Sonderforschungsbereich 504, University of Mannheim.
  20. Bryan Taylor, 2006. "The Century of Inflation," Economic Thought journal, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences - Economic Research Institute, issue 2, pages 101-122.
  21. Solnik, Bruno & Solnik, Vincent, 1997. "A multi-country test of the Fisher model for stock returns," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 7(4), pages 289-301, December.
  22. Boudoukh, Jacob & Richardson, Matthew, 1993. "Stock Returns and Inflation: A Long-Horizon Perspective," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(5), pages 1346-1355, December.
  23. Gertler, Mark & Grinols, Earl L, 1982. "Unemployment, Inflation, and Common Stock Returns," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 14(2), pages 216-233, May.
  24. Valcarcel, Victor J., 2012. "The dynamic adjustments of stock prices to inflation disturbances," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 64(2), pages 117-144.
  25. Lintner, John, 1975. "Inflation and Security Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 30(2), pages 259-280, May.
  26. Tiwari, Aviral Kumar & Dar, Arif Billah & Bhanja, Niyati & Arouri, Mohamed & Teulon, Frédéric, 2015. "Stock returns and inflation in Pakistan," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 23-31.
  27. Schotman, Peter C. & Schweitzer, Mark, 2000. "Horizon sensitivity of the inflation hedge of stocks," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 7(3-4), pages 301-315, November.
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