IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/aag/wpaper/v24y2020i4p44-76.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Time-Varying Spillovers between Currency and Stock Markets in the USA: Historical Evidence From More than Two Centuries

Author

Listed:
  • Semei Coronado

    (Independent Consultant)

  • Rangan Gupta

    (Department of Economics, University of Pretoria, South Africa,)

  • Besma Hkiri

    (Department of Finance and Economics, University of Jeddah, Saudi Arabia)

  • Omar Rojas

    (Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales, Universidad Panamericana, México)

Abstract

In this paper, we analyze time-varying causality between the dollar-pound exchange rate and S&P 500 returns over the monthly period of September, 1791 to September, 2019. Based on a Dynamic Conditional Correlation-Multivariate Generalised Autoregressive Conditional Heterosckedasticity (DCC-MGARCH) framework, we find that evidence of unidirectional causality between the two returns is in general weak, and primarily restricted to the period following the breakdown of the Bretton Woods agreement. However, instantaneous spillovers across the returns of these two markets is quite strong, which in turn tends to suggest the existence of nonsynchronous trading and also high-frequency causal dependency, with the latter confirmed based on daily data covering 3 January 1900 – 4 October 2019. Moreover, the underlying DCC reveals that there is actually portfolio diversification opportunities for investors. Finally, an analysis of the second moments reveal much stronger evidence of volatility spillovers between these two assets, when compared to the return linkages. This result has important implications from the perspective of policy making aiming to reduce the impact of uncertainty on the real economy.

Suggested Citation

  • Semei Coronado & Rangan Gupta & Besma Hkiri & Omar Rojas, 2020. "Time-Varying Spillovers between Currency and Stock Markets in the USA: Historical Evidence From More than Two Centuries," Advances in Decision Sciences, Asia University, Taiwan, vol. 24(4), pages 44-76, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:aag:wpaper:v:24:y:2020:i:4:p:44-76
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://iads.site/Time-Varying-Spillovers-between-Currency-and-Stock-Markets-in-the-USA-Historical-Evidence-From-More-than-Two-Centuries
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Kanda, Patrick & Burke, Michael & Gupta, Rangan, 2018. "Time-varying causality between equity and currency returns in the United Kingdom: Evidence from over two centuries of data," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 506(C), pages 1060-1080.
    2. Gupta, Rangan & Ma, Jun & Risse, Marian & Wohar, Mark E., 2018. "Common business cycles and volatilities in US states and MSAs: The role of economic uncertainty," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 317-337.
    3. Ruipeng Liu & Riza Demirer & Rangan Gupta & Mark Wohar, 2020. "Volatility forecasting with bivariate multifractal models," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(2), pages 155-167, March.
    4. Michael McAleer, 2019. "What They Did Not Tell You about Algebraic (Non-) Existence, Mathematical (IR-)Regularity, and (Non-) Asymptotic Properties of the Dynamic Conditional Correlation (DCC) Model," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 12(2), pages 1-9, April.
    5. Michael McAleer, 2019. "What They Did Not Tell You about Algebraic (Non-) Existence, Mathematical (IR-)Regularity and (Non-) Asymptotic Properties of the Full BEKK Dynamic Conditional Covariance Model," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 12(2), pages 1-7, April.
    6. Emrah İ. Çevik & Erdal Atukeren & Turhan Korkmaz, 2018. "Oil Prices and Global Stock Markets: A Time-Varying Causality-In-Mean and Causality-in-Variance Analysis," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(10), pages 1-22, October.
    7. Jeffrey A. Frankel, 1993. "On Exchange Rates," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262061546, December.
    8. Jushan Bai & Pierre Perron, 2003. "Computation and analysis of multiple structural change models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 18(1), pages 1-22.
    9. Tiwari Aviral Kumar & Cunado Juncal & Gupta Rangan & Wohar Mark E., 2019. "Are stock returns an inflation hedge for the UK? Evidence from a wavelet analysis using over three centuries of data," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 23(3), pages 1-17, June.
    10. Laurent, Sébastien & Lecourt, Christelle & Palm, Franz C., 2016. "Testing for jumps in conditionally Gaussian ARMA–GARCH models, a robust approach," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 383-400.
    11. Brooks, Chris & Hinich, Melvin J., 1999. "Cross-correlations and cross-bicorrelations in Sterling exchange rates," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 6(4), pages 385-404, October.
    12. Engle, Robert, 2002. "Dynamic Conditional Correlation: A Simple Class of Multivariate Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(3), pages 339-350, July.
    13. Hong, Yongmiao, 2001. "A test for volatility spillover with application to exchange rates," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 103(1-2), pages 183-224, July.
    14. Lu, Feng-bin & Hong, Yong-miao & Wang, Shou-yang & Lai, Kin-keung & Liu, John, 2014. "Time-varying Granger causality tests for applications in global crude oil markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 289-298.
    15. Dornbusch, Rudiger & Fischer, Stanley, 1980. "Exchange Rates and the Current Account," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 70(5), pages 960-971, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Celso-Arellano, Pedro & Gualajara, Victor & Coronado, Semei & Martinez, Jose N. & Venegas-Martínez, Francisco, 2023. "Impact of the global fear index (covid-19 panic) on the S&P global indices associated with natural resources, agribusiness, energy, metals and mining: Granger Causality and Shannon and Rényi Transfer ," MPRA Paper 117138, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 06 Feb 2023.
    2. Teona Shugliashvili, 2023. "The words have power: the impact of news on exchange rates," FFA Working Papers 5.006, Prague University of Economics and Business, revised 31 Jul 2023.
    3. Semei Coronado & Jose N. Martinez & Victor Gualajara & Rafael Romero-Meza & Omar Rojas, 2023. "Time-Varying Granger Causality of COVID-19 News on Emerging Financial Markets: The Latin American Case," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 11(2), pages 1-18, January.
    4. Caporina, Massimiliano & Costola, Michele, 2021. "Time-varying granger causality tests for applications in global crude oil markets: A study on the DCC-MGARCH Hong test," SAFE Working Paper Series 324, Leibniz Institute for Financial Research SAFE.
    5. Caporin, Massimiliano & Costola, Michele, 2022. "Time-varying Granger causality tests in the energy markets: A study on the DCC-MGARCH Hong test," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 111(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Semei Coronado & Rangan Gupta & Besma Hkiri & Omar Rojas, 2020. "Time-Varying Spillovers between Currency and Stock Markets in the USA: Historical Evidence From More than Two Centuries," Advances in Decision Sciences, Asia University, Taiwan, vol. 24(4), pages 44-76, December.
    2. Semei Coronado & Rangan Gupta & Besma Hkiri & Omar Rojas, 2020. "Time-Varying Spillover between Currency and Stock Markets in the United States: More than Two Centuries of Historical Evidence," Working Papers 202060, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    3. Kanda, Patrick & Burke, Michael & Gupta, Rangan, 2018. "Time-varying causality between equity and currency returns in the United Kingdom: Evidence from over two centuries of data," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 506(C), pages 1060-1080.
    4. Bathia, Deven & Demirer, Riza & Gupta, Rangan & Kotzé, Kevin, 2021. "Unemployment fluctuations and currency returns in the United Kingdom: Evidence from over one and a half century of data," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 61(C).
    5. Sibande, Xolani & Gupta, Rangan & Wohar, Mark E., 2019. "Time-varying causal relationship between stock market and unemployment in the United Kingdom: Historical evidence from 1855 to 2017," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 81-88.
    6. Gupta, Rangan & Subramaniam, Sowmya & Bouri, Elie & Ji, Qiang, 2021. "Infectious disease-related uncertainty and the safe-haven characteristic of US treasury securities," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 289-298.
    7. Elie Bouri & Konstantinos Gkillas & Rangan Gupta, 2020. "Trade uncertainties and the hedging abilities of Bitcoin," Economic Notes, Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA, vol. 49(3), September.
    8. repec:got:cegedp:89 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Sibande, Xolani & Demirer, Riza & Balcilar, Mehmet & Gupta, Rangan, 2023. "On the pricing effects of bitcoin mining in the fossil fuel market: The case of coal," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 85(PB).
    10. Gupta, Rangan & Kanda, Patrick & Tiwari, Aviral Kumar & Wohar, Mark E., 2019. "Time-varying predictability of oil market movements over a century of data: The role of US financial stress," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(C).
    11. Katarzyna Kuziak & Joanna Górka, 2023. "Dependence Analysis for the Energy Sector Based on Energy ETFs," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(3), pages 1-30, January.
    12. Semei Coronado & Rangan Gupta & Saban Nazlioglu & Omar Rojas, 2023. "Time‐varying causality between bond and oil markets of the United States: Evidence from over one and half centuries of data," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(3), pages 2239-2247, July.
    13. Caporina, Massimiliano & Costola, Michele, 2021. "Time-varying granger causality tests for applications in global crude oil markets: A study on the DCC-MGARCH Hong test," SAFE Working Paper Series 324, Leibniz Institute for Financial Research SAFE.
    14. Kühl, Michael, 2009. "Excess comovements between the Euro/US dollar and British pound/US dollar exchange rates," University of Göttingen Working Papers in Economics 89, University of Goettingen, Department of Economics.
    15. Caporin, Massimiliano & Costola, Michele, 2022. "Time-varying Granger causality tests in the energy markets: A study on the DCC-MGARCH Hong test," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 111(C).
    16. Rangan Gupta & Patrick Kanda & Mark E. Wohar, 2021. "Predicting Stock Market Movements in the United States: The Role of Presidential Approval Ratings," International Review of Finance, International Review of Finance Ltd., vol. 21(1), pages 324-335, March.
    17. Jin Guo & Tetsuji Tanaka, 2019. "Determinants of international price volatility transmissions: the role of self-sufficiency rates in wheat-importing countries," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 5(1), pages 1-13, December.
    18. Chia-Lin Chang & Michael McAleer & Jiarong Tian, 2019. "Modeling and Testing Volatility Spillovers in Oil and Financial Markets for the USA, the UK, and China," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(8), pages 1-24, April.
    19. Mai, Te-Ke & Foley, Aoife M. & McAleer, Michael & Chang, Chia-Lin, 2022. "Impact of COVID-19 on returns-volatility spillovers in national and regional carbon markets in China," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 169(C).
    20. Jin Guo & Tetsuji Tanaka, 2020. "Dynamic Transmissions and Volatility Spillovers between Global Price and U.S. Producer Price in Agricultural Markets," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 13(4), pages 1-20, April.
    21. Celso-Arellano, Pedro & Gualajara, Victor & Coronado, Semei & Martinez, Jose N. & Venegas-Martínez, Francisco, 2023. "Impact of the global fear index (covid-19 panic) on the S&P global indices associated with natural resources, agribusiness, energy, metals and mining: Granger Causality and Shannon and Rényi Transfer ," MPRA Paper 117138, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 06 Feb 2023.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Time-varying Granger causality; currency and equity markets; returns and volatilities.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:aag:wpaper:v:24:y:2020:i:4:p:44-76. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Vincent Pan (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/dfasitw.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.